Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. Internationally, the monsoon season has improved the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia, with expected restorative production increases, and the increased supply of Brazilian sugar has suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, in May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices and slowing down the decline. In the short term, it shows an adjustment trend, but the supply pressure remains, and the overall trend has not changed. It is recommended to treat the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. International factors include improved production prospects in Asian sugar - producing countries and increased Brazilian sugar supply suppressing prices. Domestic factors are a large increase in sugar imports in May 2025 and approaching summer consumption peak season. It is recommended to treat the contract with a bearish bias in a volatile market. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - This week, the price of the US Sugar 7 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.15%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.46% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 407.67% month - on - month. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 0.99%. The top 20 net positions in the sugar futures were - 58,428 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 27,669. The 9 - 1 contract spread of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was + 147 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was 380 yuan/ton [10][14][22] Spot Market - As of June 19, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,647 yuan/ton, a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,446 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 0.68% month - on - month decrease; the in - quota price was 4,468 yuan/ton, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease. As of this week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,452 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, a 27.41% increase from last week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,430 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 222 yuan/ton, a 32.14% increase from last week [28][31][37] 3. Industry Chain Situation Supply Side - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to May 2025 was only 630,000 tons, a 50.1% year - on - year decrease [41][45][49] Demand Side - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar in China was 8.666 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative output of soft drinks from January to April was 59.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [53][57] 4. Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the options market and the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry in the stock - futures correlation market, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][62]