市场表现：上周发达市场表现更优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.0% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 +0.2% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -1.5% 。债市方面，日本长端利率 上行，美国利率下行。大宗方面，银价涨幅居前，大豆跌幅较大。汇率方面，美元升，英镑平，日元贬，人民币升。上周中国股市必需消费、金融、能源材料 领涨，美股可选消费 + 科技更优。 报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波 幅继续下降。 资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 重要提醒 交投情绪：上周欧美股指成交大幅放量。 从成交看，上周美股、欧股、韩股与日股成交走强，港股、 A 股成交走弱。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比 下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、美股波动率下降，日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场整 体估值较前周上升、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 横向对比来看，港股 2025 年盈利预 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.23 欧美股指成交显著放量 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 12 月第 3 期 | | 021-23187260 | | --- | --- | | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 短线外资回流规模创 11 月以来新高 2025.12.20 最近一周外资明显回流互联网 2025.12.16 恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低 2025.12.16 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/12/14） 2025.12.14 日股盈利预期自 11 月以来显著上修 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波幅继 续下降。资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 [Table_ ...

报告导读： 上周全球指数小幅收涨，恒指波幅创 2022 年以来新低，中国科技板块收涨、 而发达市场科技显著回撤。 资金面上，联储 12 月降息预期并重启购债，市场预计 26 年 降息 2 次。基本面上，上周港股盈利预期边际下修，主要市场经济高频景气回升。 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收跌。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -0.3% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -0.3% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 +0.3% 。债市方面，美债长端利率 上行，中国长端利率下降。大宗方面，银价涨幅居前，原油跌幅较大。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑升，日元贬，人民币升。上周中国股市科技板块收涨，发达市 场科技板块显著回撤。 交投情绪：上周全球多数股指成交放量，恒指波幅降至 2022 年以来最低水平。 从成交看，上周港股、 A 股、美股、韩股与日股成交走强，欧股成交走弱。 从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、日股波动率下降，美股波 动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周上升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期边际下修，美股科技盈利预期上修。 横向对比来看， ...

Key Takeaways PAYX is set to report 2Q26 results on Dec. 19, with revenues estimated to rise 18% y/y to $1.6 billion.PAYX's Management Solutions revenues are projected at $1.2 billion, reflecting gains from Paycor additions.PAYX earnings are expected to grow 8.8% from the prior-year quarter to $1.24 per share.Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) will release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 19, before market open.PAYX’s earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in four preceding quarters, with an average ...

Market Performance - Global indices experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.3%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.3% [1] - In the bond market, Japanese bond yields rose while UK bond yields fell [1] - Commodities saw significant fluctuations, with copper and silver showing notable changes, while natural gas experienced a substantial decline [1] - Currency movements included a depreciation of the US dollar, appreciation of the British pound and Japanese yen, and stability in the Chinese yuan [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and Japanese markets, while trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, German, and French markets weakened [1] - Investor sentiment improved in Hong Kong, although it remains at historically low levels, while US investor sentiment also rose, reaching historically high levels [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, European, and US markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in both developed and emerging markets rose compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Recent upward revisions in earnings expectations for Japanese stocks were noted, with US stocks showing the best marginal changes for 2025 earnings expectations [2] - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were downgraded, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2105 to 2094 [2] - US earnings expectations remained stable, with the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast at 272 [2] - European earnings expectations also remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index's 2025 EPS forecast holding at 330 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in Europe and the US showed signs of recovery last week, supported by various factors including Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and improvements in service sector activity [2] - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index increased, influenced by the Fed's rate cut expectations and developments in the Ukraine-Russia talks [2] - Conversely, the Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by weaker manufacturing PMI and subdued policy expectations [2] Capital Flows - High expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were maintained, with indications of a potential 25 basis point reduction in December [3] - Market expectations suggest the Fed may cut rates three times in 2026 [3] - Global liquidity conditions improved, with significant capital inflows into China, the US, Japan, India, and South Korea noted in October [3] - Continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks were observed through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3]

Core Insights - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) stock fell over 8% in pre-market trading despite reporting better-than-expected results for Q4 fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP earnings of 62 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% and increasing 6.3% year over year [1] - HPE's revenues grew 14.4% year over year to $9.68 billion but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.63%, driven primarily by the networking business [1] Segment Performance - The Server segment generated $4.5 billion in revenues, down 5% year over year due to delays in AI server shipments and reduced U.S. federal spending, with an operating profit margin of 9.8%, down 180 basis points from the previous year [3] - Networking revenues reached $2.8 billion, up 150% year over year, largely due to the addition of Juniper Networks, although the operating profit margin decreased to 23%, down 140 basis points [4] - The Hybrid Cloud division reported $1.4 billion in revenues, down 12% year over year, as HPE focused on higher-margin solutions, resulting in an operating profit margin of 5%, down from 7.8% [5] - The Financial Services segment recorded $889 million in revenues, flat year over year, with an operating margin of 11.5%, up 230 basis points [6] Operating Results - HPE's non-GAAP gross profit for Q4 fiscal 2025 was $3.52 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 36.4%, up 550 basis points year over year [7] - The non-GAAP operating profit was $1.18 billion, with an operating margin of 12.2%, up 110 basis points from the previous year [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - HPE ended Q4 with $5.77 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $4.57 billion in the previous quarter [8] - The company generated $2.5 billion in cash from operating activities and produced $1.9 billion in free cash flow, both significantly higher than the prior year [8] Shareholder Returns - HPE returned $271 million to shareholders in Q4 through dividends and share repurchases, totaling $886 million for the full fiscal 2025 [9] Guidance for FY26 and Q1 - For Q1 fiscal 2026, HPE expects revenues between $9 billion and $9.4 billion, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 54 cents per share, indicating 10.2% year-over-year growth [12] - For full-year fiscal 2026, HPE forecasts revenue growth of 17-22% and projects non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.25-$2.45, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.31 per share, indicating 21.5% year-over-year growth [14]

Core Insights - ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $1.32 per share, slightly better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.35, and an improvement from a loss of $2 per share a year ago, indicating a positive earnings surprise of +2.22% [1] - The company generated revenues of $105.67 million for the quarter ended October 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.55% and showing growth from $99.61 million in the same quarter last year [2] - ChargePoint shares have declined approximately 61% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 16.5%, highlighting significant underperformance in the market [3] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of ChargePoint's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook, which includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the next quarter is -$1.11 on revenues of $102.39 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$5.16 on revenues of $393.9 million [7] Industry Context - The Automotive - Original Equipment industry, to which ChargePoint belongs, is currently ranked in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook that could positively influence ChargePoint's stock performance [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nutanix reported quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but down from $0.42 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $670.58 million for the quarter ended October 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.86%, but up from $590.96 million year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - Nutanix has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] - The company had a surprise of +15.63% in the previous quarter, with actual earnings of $0.37 per share compared to an expected $0.32 [1][2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.54, with expected revenues of $748.98 million, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $1.89 on revenues of $2.92 billion [7] Stock Performance - Nutanix shares have declined approximately 4.7% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 14% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Outlook - The Computers - IT Services industry, to which Nutanix belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 42% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Nutanix's stock performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (Wabtec) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues exceeding estimates and showing year-over-year growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share reached $2.32, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23, marking a 16% year-over-year increase due to higher sales, operating margin expansion, and share repurchase benefits [3]. - Revenues totaled $2.88 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.86 billion, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year growth driven by the Freight and Transit segments [3]. Segment Performance - The Freight segment reported net sales of $2.09 billion, an 8.4% increase year-over-year, supported by a 32% rise in Equipment sales and a 45.6% increase in Digital sales due to the acquisition of Inspection Technologies [4]. - The Transit segment's net sales grew 8.2% year-over-year to $793 million, bolstered by strong aftermarket and original equipment sales [5]. Operating Expenses and Financial Position - Total operating expenses rose by $64 million year-over-year to $511 million, with the operating ratio increasing to 17.7% from 16.8% [6]. - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $528 million, down from $1.49 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt increased to $5.03 billion from $4.78 billion [6]. Dividend and Guidance - Wabtec paid $43 million in dividends during the reported quarter [7]. - The company raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $8.85 to $9.05, with revenues expected between $10.925 billion and $11.225 billion [8]. Market Sentiment and Estimates - Recent estimates for Wabtec have trended upward, indicating positive market sentiment [9]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11].

Core Insights - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. reported a miss on earnings for Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings of 32 cents per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents and declining 5.8% year over year [3] - Total revenues for the quarter were $1.92 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 billion and showing a year-over-year improvement of 2.7% [3] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses increased by 4.5% year over year to $1.87 billion [4] - Truckload segment revenues were $1.08 billion, down 2.1% year over year, with adjusted segmental operating income falling 15% to $41.22 million [5] - The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment saw revenues of $340.48 million, up 21.5% year over year, with adjusted segmental operating income increasing 10.1% to $32.05 million [6] - Logistics segment revenues amounted to $140.4 million, down 2.2% year over year, while adjusted operating income rose 1.9% to $8 million [7] - Intermodal revenues totaled $94.08 million, down 8.4% year over year, with a significant decrease in load count [8] Liquidity and Debt - Knight-Swift ended Q3 with cash and cash equivalents of $192.67 million, down from $216.32 million in the previous quarter, while long-term debt decreased to $1.05 billion from $1.39 billion [9] Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, adjusted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of 34-40 cents, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at 39 cents [10] - Truckload segment revenues are anticipated to remain stable, with operating margins expected to improve by 250-350 basis points sequentially [10] - LTL segment revenues are projected to grow between 10% and 15% year over year in Q4 2025 [11] - Net cash capital expenditures for 2025 are now expected to be between $475 million and $525 million, down from the previous guidance of $525 million to $575 million [13] Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 10.98% [14] - Knight-Swift currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [16]