1. 宏观量化配置框架回顾 在数说资产配置和因子新视野系列报告中，我们构建了结合经济、流动性、信用和通胀的自上而下的宏观量化框架，并依次在大类资产配置、权益资产的行业和风格配置上有 所应用。在过去的跟踪中，我们发现我国宏观变量向资产的映射规律仍在不断变化，因此模型也需要持续修正。下面我们首先对框架进行回顾，并结合近两年观察到的现象提 出修正方案。 在大类资产配置模型中，我们从美林时钟改进的视角出发，通过主成分分析发现影响股票、债券、商品等多个大类资产共同波动的前两大因素为经济和流动性，因此首先构建 了经济+流动性时钟，每月依据PMI、汽车生产销售等数据构成的经济前瞻指标和利率、货币投放、超储率构成的综合流动性指标来判断经济、流动性方向，然后通过调整大类 资产预期收益的方式和BL模型结合，得到不同风险偏好下的资产配置权重： 在具体计算中，我们分别计算经济观点和流动性观点调整后的组合权重，并将两者等权合成，使用的资产包括沪深300、中证500、中证国债、中证信用债、黄金、南华商品和 标普500指数。激进型组合2013年以来的表现如下，加入观点的组合年化收益约8.5%，相较于基准组合有约0.6%的超额收益，而202 ...

Key Takeaways PDD's Q2 revenues are projected to rise 7.45%, but profit growth remains under pressure.Earnings estimate has dropped to $1.91 per share, down from $3.20 a year earlier.Margin strain from promotions, rising costs and competitive headwinds may deepen losses.PDD Holdings (PDD) is scheduled to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 25.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PDD’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $14.35 billion, indicating growth of 7.45% on a year-over-year basis.The consensus ...

Core Insights - Walmart Inc reported a profit of 68 cents per share, missing earnings estimates for the first time since 2022, while revenue reached $177.4 billion, exceeding expectations [1] - Despite tariff pressures, price concerns, and one-time expenses, strong U.S. and e-commerce sales led Walmart to raise its full-year sales and profit outlook [1] Stock Performance - The stock is down 4.3% to $98.15, breaking a three-day winning streak and falling below the $100 resistance level [2] - Year-to-date, Walmart's equity is still up 8.6% [2] Analyst Sentiment - A majority of analysts remain optimistic, with 36 out of 37 firms rating Walmart a "buy" or better [3] - The stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.98 indicates strong long-term sentiment, ranking higher than 87% of readings from the past year [3] Options Activity - Bearish activity has increased in the options market, with 114,000 puts exchanged, significantly above the intraday average [4] - The most popular contracts are the August 97-, 98-, and 92-strike puts, with positions opening at all three levels [4]

Financial Performance - Xilio Therapeutics reported a quarterly loss of $0.16 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.08, and improved from a loss of $0.24 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $8.08 million for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.38%, and showing significant growth from year-ago revenues of $2.36 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Xilio Therapeutics has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times, but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Xilio Therapeutics shares have declined approximately 25.2% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 10% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.05 on revenues of $25.56 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.23 on revenues of $103.74 million [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Xilio Therapeutics was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, which may impact future stock movements [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Xilio Therapeutics belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could be a useful metric for investors [5]

Company Performance - Kamada reported quarterly earnings of $0.13 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09 per share, and up from $0.08 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +44.44% [1] - The company posted revenues of $44.75 million for the quarter ended June 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.67%, but up from $42.47 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Kamada has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Kamada shares have increased approximately 22.8% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 9.6% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Kamada is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.09 on revenues of $46.16 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.33 on revenues of $180.94 million [7] - The outlook for the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, where Kamada operates, is currently in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Core Insights - TWFG, Inc. reported revenue of $60.31 million for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0.20, a significant decrease from $14.89 a year ago [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $63.94 million, resulting in a surprise of -5.68% [1] - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +11.11%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.18 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Contingent income was reported at $2.03 million, exceeding the average estimate of $1.8 million from four analysts [4] - Fee income was recorded at $3.33 million, slightly below the average estimate of $3.42 million from four analysts [4] - Commission income totaled $54.56 million, which was lower than the average estimate of $58.81 million based on four analysts [4] - Other income was reported at $0.38 million, also below the average estimate of $0.4 million from three analysts [4] Stock Performance - TWFG, Inc. shares have returned -17.6% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Theravance Biopharma reported a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.14, representing an earnings surprise of +42.86% [1] - The company posted revenues of $26.2 million for the quarter ended June 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 53.76%, compared to $14.26 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Theravance Bio shares have increased by approximately 21.2% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.4% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.09 on revenues of $18.12 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.01 on revenues of $96.03 million [7] - The Medical - Drugs industry, to which Theravance Bio belongs, is currently ranked in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8]

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is expected to report revenue growth of 3.6% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate of $1.27 billion for Q2 2025 [1] - The earnings consensus has decreased by a penny to 29 cents per share, reflecting a significant decline of 19.4% compared to the previous year [2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Focus - The company is prioritizing core strategies such as team development, brand focus, margin prioritization, strategic innovations, and prudent mergers and acquisitions [3] - FLO is executing a portfolio strategy by exiting low-margin businesses and replacing them with margin-accretive opportunities while enhancing its cost structure [10] - Investments in brands, product mix, and technology are aimed at driving volume and market share gains [4][10] Group 2: Market Challenges - The upcoming fiscal second-quarter results are likely to be impacted by a challenging consumer environment characterized by shifts in spending behavior and increased costs due to heightened promotional activities [5] - Higher selling, distribution, and administrative expenses, along with workforce-related and acquisition costs, are additional challenges [5] - Persistent weakness in categories such as traditional bread, cake, and private label is expected to negatively affect performance, with a projected 2% dip in overall volumes for the quarter [6][10] Group 3: Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for FLO, with an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7]

分组1 - Skechers reported quarterly earnings of $1.13 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share, and showing an increase from $0.91 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +36.14% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.44 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.50%, and up from $2.16 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Skechers has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 6.3% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 7.8% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.93 on revenues of $2.53 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.65 on revenues of $9.67 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Shoes and Retail Apparel is currently in the bottom 30% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for the sector [8]

fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.05 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.04 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +150.00%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post a loss of $0.04 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.02, delivering a surprise of +50%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpas ...