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防追高指南来了!陈果:警惕杠杆攀升、尾部股补涨、交易指标过热等信号!
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-08-18 10:23
Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, igniting market enthusiasm and raising concerns about potential blind chasing of high prices among investors [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The rapid increase in market prices may attract new investors, leading to a higher probability of blind chasing [1] - The current market uptrend, while not as extreme as last year's surge post-National Day, still poses a risk of correction if the pace accelerates [2] - Significant increases in trading volume and leverage indicate both positive inflows and rising profit-taking pressure, necessitating close monitoring of margin financing balances [2] Group 2: Risk Signals - The balance between stock and bond valuations is approaching historical equilibrium, which typically leads to a consolidation phase; excessive reliance on valuation expansion could signal overly high risk appetite [2] - Industries with rapid valuation expansion may embed unrealistic profit expectations, accumulating risk if actual performance does not meet these expectations [3] - High trading volumes in specific sectors could indicate both informed investment and irrational speculation, with large turnover potentially signaling profit-taking by seasoned investors [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Cautions - Not all industries with significant prior gains are inherently risky; the key factor is whether valuations have expanded too quickly [3] - The phenomenon of capital flowing from leading companies to smaller, less profitable firms may indicate that the main investment thesis for a sector has been fully explored [3]