Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power and self-control in light of recent geopolitical factors and security risks associated with foreign technology, particularly following the discussions with Nvidia regarding the H20 backdoor security risk [1] - The electronic sector is expected to experience a "valuation expansion" trend due to the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which can see daily fluctuations of up to 20%, focusing on semiconductor and electronic industry companies listed on the Science and Technology Board [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Chip Index includes leading domestic chip companies, with the largest weighted stock, "Han Wang," accounting for over 12% of the index [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF Initiated Link A (024853) and Link C (024854) for exposure to the sector [1]

Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released implementation opinions to promote innovation in the brain-computer interface industry, aiming for breakthroughs in key technologies by 2027, including brain-machine chips and high-precision surgical robots [2] - OpenAI has launched a new AI model named GPT-5, which offers enhanced capabilities in coding, creative writing, and complex query reasoning, described as a significant upgrade over previous models [2] Company Performance - SMIC reported a sales revenue of $2.209 billion for Q2 2025, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down 2.1 percentage points [3] - For the first half of 2025, SMIC's sales revenue reached $4.46 billion, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.4%, up 7.6 percentage points [3] - SMIC expects Q3 revenue to grow by 5% to 7% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin between 18% and 20% [3] ETF Information - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Sci-Tech Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (25%) [4] - The Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) and its linked funds also emphasize semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (24%), targeting the upstream semiconductor sector [4]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant rise today, with Dongxin Co. and Star Semiconductor hitting the daily limit, while Guoke Micro and Shenkong Co. increased by over 7% [1] - Guoxin Securities maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the favorable opportunities in analog and memory sectors, and expects a valuation expansion trend in the electronics sector by 2025 due to the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [1] - Tianfeng Securities projects continued optimistic growth in the global semiconductor market through 2025, driven by AI-related downstream growth, while highlighting the ongoing risks related to supply chain disruptions and restructuring [1] Group 2 - The second quarter performance forecasts for various companies in the semiconductor sector are promising, and there is an expectation for a peak season in the third quarter, suggesting a focus on the performance elasticity of memory, power, foundry, ASIC, and SoC segments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The extreme divergence between credit spreads and stock risk premiums led to the starting point of the current A-share valuation expansion. The current round of A-share market is driven by funds, and the logic has only reached the middle stage, with the upward trend unfinished [2]. - The fact that the risk premium has reached "mean - 1 standard deviation" does not mean the end of the market. Considering the intensity and duration of the current round of fund - driven, A - share valuations are expected to continue to expand, driving the risk premium to decline further, and the risk - compensation returns of stocks and bonds will eventually converge [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Historically, the stock market risk premium can stay below "mean - 1 standard deviation" for a long time - There were several historical periods when the stock market risk premium fell below "mean - 1 standard deviation", such as from December 2014 to August 2015, November 2017 to February 2018, and September 2020 to April 2021, with durations of 9 months, 2 months, and 8 months respectively. Except for the 2017 - 2018 period when the risk premium could not continue to decline due to rapid liquidity withdrawal, in other periods, it could fall to around "mean - 2 standard deviations" or even lower [3]. - These historical periods had similar macro - environments that did not support a bull market in stocks. The factors driving the significant expansion of A - share valuations were not fundamental but fund - driven, and there was no continuous expansion of corporate profits [3]. 2. In the current round of the market, the indexes have expanded to varying degrees, and there are no signs of an end - Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has priced in the decline of the risk - free rate. Different sectors have different repair progress. The repair of large - cap stocks is relatively large, with the ERP basically reaching "mean - 1 standard deviation", while the ERP of small - and medium - cap stocks is still above the historical mean [4]. - The current round of valuation expansion also starts from changes in the capital side. Since September 2024, the economic fundamentals and corporate profit growth have been weak, and the monetary policy has been relatively loose. The core factor determining the start and end of the market is the sustainability of fund - driving. The current round of fund - driven logic has only evolved to institutional - driven and allocation - driven (insurance funds taking the lead), and bank wealth management and public funds will take over in the second half of the year [4]. - With the expansion of A - share valuations, the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index has been below "mean - 1 standard deviation" since July 18, lasting for less than 1 month. "Mean - 1 standard deviation" cannot be a sign of the end of the market, especially since the risk premiums of some sectors are still above the mean [4]. 3. Valuation expansion space calculation under two scenario assumptions - Historically, the extreme situation of index valuation expansion is in the range of "mean - N standard deviations", where N is between 0.6 - 4.0, with a median of approximately 2.0. - Scenario 1 assumes that the stock market risk premium can fall to "mean - 2 standard deviations"; Scenario 2 assumes that it can fall to "mean - N standard deviations", where N corresponds to the lowest level previously reached by the index's ERP. - Based on these two assumptions, the ChiNext Index has the largest PE expansion space, followed by the Wind 300 (ex - banks), CSI 1000, and CSI 500. The PE expansion spaces of the SSE 50, Shanghai Composite Index, and Wind Dividend Index are relatively small, but there is still expansion space even in a conservative scenario [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the upward speed of the stock index may slow down after the phased realization of macro - positive factors, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, the futures index market this year is mainly driven by valuation expansion, and the valuation factor is expected to continue to play a role. It is advisable to go long on the stock index opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are as follows: DRO01 closed at 1.31, down 8.18bp; DR007 at 1.42, down 13.00bp; GC001 at 1.29, up 26.00bp; GC007 at 1.46, up 3.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37, down 0.73bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57, down 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.71, up 0.60bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.23, down 14.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan expiring from Monday to Friday respectively [4][5] Stock Index Market - Stock index closing prices and changes compared to the previous day: CSI 300 closed at 4055, down 0.51%; SSE 50 at 2754, down 0.79%; CSI 500 at 6213, down 0.21%; CSI 1000 at 6670, up 0.14%. For index futures, IF当月 closed at 4043, down 0.7%; IH当月 at 2754, down 0.8%; IC当月 at 6166, down 0.4%; IM当月 at 6617, up 0.1% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the pharmaceutical and biological (2.9%), communication (2.5%), media (1.1%), electronics (0.3%), and social services (0.1%) sectors led the gains, while most sectors declined, with non - ferrous metals (-4.6%), real estate (-3.4%), transportation (-3.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-3%), and power equipment (-2.6%) leading the losses [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures have different levels of premium and discount for different contracts. For example, IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 9.10%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 3.41% respectively [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 0.14% and the corresponding ETF (588870) gaining 0.1%, indicating active trading with a turnover rate exceeding 8.5% [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF has experienced a continuous decline for 7 days, but has seen accelerated capital inflow during this period, with a total net inflow exceeding 51 million yuan and a net inflow rate of over 29% [1] - Over the past 60 days, the ETF has received a net subscription of more than 127 million yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - A meeting on May 27 emphasized the importance of cooperation between China and Europe in the semiconductor supply chain, with representatives from over 40 companies participating [3] - The meeting highlighted China's commitment to expanding high-level openness and providing a stable policy environment for semiconductor enterprises, aiming to enhance mutual advantages and combat unilateralism [3] - The majority of the Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF's constituent stocks, including Cambricon, Chipone, and others, showed slight increases, with gains within 1% [3] Group 3 - Guosen Securities noted that the electronics industry is benefiting from the rise of DeepSeek and demand from domestic subsidies for home appliances and mobile phones, indicating a high level of prosperity in the sector [4] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to ease, leading to increased overseas order procurement and inventory reserves, contributing to an upward trend in the industry [4] - Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the electronics sector's valuation expansion in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and macroeconomic policies [4] Group 4 - Huawei and Tencent Cloud have signed cooperation agreements with humanoid robot companies to accelerate the application of embodied intelligence in various scenarios [5] - The partnerships aim to enhance product technology development and promote the efficiency of humanoid robots in industrial and domestic settings [5] - The involvement of major tech companies is expected to expedite the deployment of humanoid robots across multiple applications, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related chip companies [5] Group 5 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF (588870) has outperformed its benchmark index with a return of 1.32% since its launch on January 27, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index itself has seen a decline of 0.43% [6] - The ETF includes the 50 largest and most liquid stocks on the Sci-Tech board, covering sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology [6] - The ETF boasts low management and custody fees, making it an attractive option for investors [6]