2025 年 11 月 24 日 短期不必过度悲观——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《宏观流动性确认边际收敛—— 资产配置周报》2025-11-16 2、《宏观流动性边际收敛概率上升 ——资产配置周报》2025-11-09 3、《风险偏好上升情景排除——资 产配置周报》2025-11-02 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 10 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.6%，前值 8.9%，降幅超预期。预计 11 月实体部 门负债增速小幅下行至 8.5%附近，后续趋于下行，重回缩 表。按照目前的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速 将下降至 8.4%附近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边际上继续 收敛，符合之前的判断，但在上周后半周出现了反弹的迹 象，我们倾向于认为，持续的股债表现不佳或难持续，短期 不必过度悲观。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会 融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For instance, on November 18, 2025, all tracked indices fell, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 500 experiencing the largest declines of -1.32% and -1.17%, respectively[1][2][10] - The report compares the indices against their moving averages and their positions relative to the highest and lowest points over the past 250 trading days. For example, all tracked indices have fallen below their 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the CSI 2000 still above its 20-day moving average[13] - The report provides data on the trading volume and turnover rates of the indices. On November 18, 2025, the CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 24.98%, followed by the CSI 300 at 22.28% and the CSI 1000 at 22.17%. The turnover rates for these indices were 4.48, 2.85, and 2.83, respectively[15] - The report analyzes the distribution of daily returns for the indices, noting that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative kurtosis deviation, while the CSI 1000 has the smallest. The CSI 2000 has the smallest negative skewness, while the SSE 50 has the largest[21][23] - The report examines the risk premiums of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield. As of November 18, 2025, the SSE 50 and CSI 300 had relatively high 5-year percentile risk premiums of 37.62% and 24.29%, respectively, while the CSI 2000 and CSI 500 had lower values of 15.95% and 13.41%[25][28][29] - The report evaluates the PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months) of the indices as a measure of valuation. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 had high 5-year percentile values of 96.86% and 95.45%, respectively, while the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index had lower values of 82.64% and 55.04%[37][40][41] - The report assesses the stock-bond yield ratio, which compares the inverse of the PE-TTM to the 10-year government bond yield. None of the indices were above their 80% percentile (opportunity value), and none were below their 20% percentile (danger value)[43] - The report tracks the dividend yields of the indices, noting that the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 had relatively high 5-year historical percentile values of 70.58% and 39.17%, respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 had lower values of 16.94% and 13.55%[45][50][51] - The report monitors the net asset value break rates of the indices, indicating the proportion of stocks trading below their net asset value. As of the latest data, the break rates were 22.0% for the SSE 50, 16.0% for the CSI 300, 11.6% for the CSI 500, 7.2% for the CSI 1000, 2.45% for the CSI 2000, 1.0% for the ChiNext Index, and 5.65% for the CSI All Share Index[52]

- The report provides a snapshot of the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting daily, monthly, and yearly changes in index values, with indices like CSI 2000 showing the highest daily increase of 0.63% and CSI 1000 at 0.27%[10][11][14] - CSI 2000 demonstrated a relatively independent trend, breaking through its 250-day high, while other indices remained below their 5-day moving averages[14] - Turnover rates and trading volume proportions were analyzed, with CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate at 4.4 and the largest trading volume proportion at 25.29%[16] - The distribution of daily returns was examined, showing that CSI 2000 had the smallest negative skewness, while the ChiNext Index had the largest negative kurtosis[22][24] - Risk premium analysis was conducted using the 10-year government bond yield as a risk-free rate benchmark, revealing that CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 had relatively high risk premiums at 64.29% and 56.75%, respectively, over the past five years[26][30][33] - PE-TTM values were evaluated as a valuation metric, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing high historical percentiles at 98.1% and 95.95%, respectively[36][39][40] - Dividend yield analysis indicated that the ChiNext Index had the highest 5-year historical percentile at 69.5%, while CSI 2000 had the lowest at 10.0%[44][49][50] - Current net-breaking rates were reported, with CSI 2000 having the lowest rate at 2.2%, reflecting market valuation attitudes[51][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal convergence of macro - liquidity has been confirmed, and the subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable profits, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style favors value. The recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][24]. - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate will also trend downwards. The economy on the asset side needs to be observed for signs of stabilization or marginal upward movement [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.6%, down from 8.8% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to drop slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to the de - leveraging phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to fall to around 8.3% [2][17]. - The financial sector's liquidity marginally converged last week. The high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, and the probability of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is relatively high in the future [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of October 2025, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year [3][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase in government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 476.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned 264.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 228.3 billion yuan [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price of funds increased, and the term spread slightly decreased. The yield of one - year Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, with a central value of around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 40 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond yields are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether this nominal economic growth rate will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the liquidity marginally converged, and the high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence of macro - liquidity. Stocks performed poorly, and bonds were stable. The value style in the equity market continued to dominate. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the term spread slightly decreased to 40 basis points, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 2.15% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.1 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 6.62 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to the CSI 300's maximum drawdown of 15.7%) [6][21]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined slightly. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the top - performing sectors were comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial retail, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology, with weekly increases of 7%, 4.4%, 4.1%, 3.7%, and 3.3% respectively. The sectors with the largest declines were communication, electronics, computer, machinery and equipment, and national defense and military industry, with weekly changes of - 4.8%, - 4.8%, - 3%, - 2.2%, and - 2.2% respectively [29]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 14, the top five crowded industries were power equipment, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals, with crowding levels of 15.6%, 14.5%, 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, social services, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.8% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, food and beverage, real estate, and banks, with increases of 2.4%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were power equipment, automobiles, computers, electronics, and machinery and equipment, with changes of - 1.6%, - 1.3%, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.04 trillion yuan this week, slightly higher than last week's 2.01 trillion yuan. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were food and beverage, comprehensive, commercial retail, basic chemicals, and beauty care, with volume changes of 59.1%, 35.2%, 35%, 34.7%, and 19.7% respectively. The industries with the smallest increases in trading volume were media, computer, steel, banks, and coal, with volume changes of - 21.7%, - 21.6%, - 20%, - 13%, and - 10.4% respectively [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the sectors with the largest increases in PE(TTM) were comprehensive, commercial retail, beauty care, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals, with changes of 5.3%, 5.1%, 4.9%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively. The sectors with the smallest increases were communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and computer, with valuation changes of - 2.4%, - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 1.3%, and - 1.2% respectively [36]. - As of November 14, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed changes. The CCFI index increased by 3.4% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate dropped to 3.6% in October and rose to 6.4% in the first 10 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [40]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed changes. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August 2025, declined from September to October and slightly rebounded in November but remained at a historical low. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing sales declined seasonally compared to history. As of November 9, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.39% week - on - week. As of October 31, the producer price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week [40]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of November (November 10 - 14), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly performance levels were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined by 1.1% weekly [53]. - As of November 14, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.89 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds only slightly favors equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival. Combining these characteristics with the under - allocation in the public fund's quarterly report, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [59].

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, style indices, valuation metrics, and fund flows without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - Key metrics such as PE_TTM, ERP, and style index performance are discussed, but no explicit quantitative model or factor development process is provided [41][51][59]

- The report provides a snapshot of the daily investment dynamics of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting the performance of indices such as the CSI 1000 (-0.72%) and CSI 2000 (-0.68%), which experienced the largest declines on November 12, 2025 [1][2][11] - The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext indices showed consecutive three-day declines, with the ChiNext index achieving the highest annual growth rate of 45.78%, followed by CSI 2000 (33.78%) and CSI 500 (26.5%) [11][14] - The report compares indices against their moving averages and 250-day highs and lows, noting that the SSE 50 index broke above its 5-day moving average, while indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 fell below their respective short-term averages [14] - Turnover rates and trading volume proportions are analyzed, with CSI 2000 showing the highest turnover rate (4.27%) and the CSI 1000 index accounting for 20.49% of trading volume [3][16][17] - Daily return distributions are examined, revealing that the ChiNext index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 has the smallest negative kurtosis deviation [23] - Risk premium analysis indicates that SSE 50 and CSI 300 have relatively high 5-year percentile values (65.56% and 44.92%, respectively), while CSI 1000 and CSI 500 have lower values (26.35% and 25.32%) [3][25][29] - PE-TTM values are evaluated, showing that CSI 1000 (97.44%) and CSI 500 (96.2%) have high 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (82.98%) and ChiNext (55.79%) are lower [38][39] - Dividend yield analysis highlights that ChiNext (69.01%) and CSI 1000 (36.53%) have high 5-year historical percentile values, while CSI 500 (16.28%) and CSI 2000 (13.97%) are lower [4][50][49] - Current net-breaking rates are reported, with SSE 50 at 20.0%, CSI 300 at 15.33%, and ChiNext at 1.0%, reflecting market valuation attitudes [51]

Core Viewpoint - The recent return of the Shanghai Composite Index to the 4000-point mark is characterized by a more cautious market sentiment compared to previous surges, indicating a need for careful evaluation of current market conditions [1][2]. Valuation Comparison - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for A-shares at the 4000-point level is significantly lower at 35% compared to 92% in 2007 and 72% in 2015, reflecting improved asset quality and higher value for investors [2][5]. Equity Risk Premium - As of the end of October, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index stands at 5.03%, which is higher than the 2.69% observed during a similar market point in 2015, suggesting that current stock valuations remain reasonable without significant bubbles [5][10]. Market Characteristics - The current market is marked by structural differentiation rather than a broad-based bull market, leading to a sentiment of "the index is back, but the money hasn't returned" among investors [7][10]. Sector Performance - The market's profitability is concentrated in specific sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, while other sectors like consumer goods, finance, and real estate have shown limited growth [10][12]. Individual Stock Performance - In the current market cycle, less than 40% of stocks have seen gains exceeding 80%, and only about 29% have doubled in value, contrasting sharply with the previous cycle where nearly 60% of stocks gained over 80% [13][18]. Industry Valuation Disparities - Most industries are currently valued within the 25% to 75% range, with some sectors still considered relatively cheap (below the 25% percentile), indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued assets [16][18]. Investment Focus - The focus should shift from index levels to structural opportunities within the market, particularly in the context of improving corporate earnings and the potential for significant growth in select sectors [19][20]. Seasonal Market Trends - The period from November to December is historically significant for positioning in the following year's market trends, as it often correlates with performance and can reveal undervalued opportunities due to institutional rebalancing [23][26]. Long-term Value Assessment - The return to the 4000-point level is not merely a repetition of past events; it reflects a reassessment of value driven by economic transformation and industry upgrades, emphasizing the importance of identifying quality assets for long-term investment [28].

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in October 2025 shows a clear ranking, with Nikkei 225 leading, followed by strategies like long VIX and gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics and asset allocation strategies [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The major asset performance in October 2025 is ranked as follows: Nikkei 225 > Long VIX > Gold > Nasdaq > USD > Chinese bonds > European stocks > CSI 300 > South China Composite > ChiNext > Crude Oil > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Tech [1][14]. - The characteristics of asset balancing have strengthened, with broad narrative trading loosening and other assets experiencing some catch-up [2][14]. - Global stock markets showed more gainers than losers, with significant differentiation; Japanese stocks led gains, while U.S. stocks experienced increased volatility and Chinese assets adjusted [2][3][23]. Group 2: Macro Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a return to the "safe asset" pricing of G7 long-term bonds, with yields in Germany, the UK, France, and Italy declining [2][3][26]. - The U.S. dollar has rebounded by 2.5%, breaking the 100 mark, amidst a narrative shift regarding the restructuring of the dollar system [2][3][26]. - Domestic equity assets have shown a return to pricing power, with significant differentiation between large and small caps, and a return to dividend value [2][3][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The next driving factors for equity assets may come from "investment shortfall补短板," with a high sensitivity to marginal changes in fixed asset investment [5][30]. - The calendar effect in Q4 is expected to promote style balancing, with historical data indicating higher success rates for dividend and financial sectors during this period [5][30]. - The high-growth sector's narrative may continue to loosen, impacting investment strategies and asset allocation [13][30]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trends - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, with the 10-year government bond yield declining to 1.79%, indicating a release of previous pricing risks [2][30]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields remains stable at -0.63, suggesting a continued "see-saw" effect in domestic markets [2][30]. - The recent volatility in major asset classes has led to a rotation in asset rankings, with the number of daily changes in asset rankings increasing from 121 to 128 [15][30].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced volatility on October 29, with short-term instruments performing better initially, but long-term bonds weakened towards the end of the trading day. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net amount of 419.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a focus on liquidity management and potential monetary easing [1][6]. Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27% at 115.83, while the 10-year contract rose 0.13% to 108.57. The 5-year and 2-year contracts also saw slight increases [2]. - The interbank bond yield initially decreased before rising again, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield up 0.7 basis points to 1.8875% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.37 basis points to 3.486% and the 10-year yield down 0.01 basis points to 3.976% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising 0.7 basis points to 1.652% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank of China issued financial bonds with yields of 1.4811% for 1.074 years, 1.7549% for 3 years, and 1.9480% for 10 years, with bid-to-cover ratios indicating strong demand [5]. Liquidity and Funding - The PBOC conducted a 557.7 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates declined across the board, with the overnight rate down 5.5 basis points to 1.414% [6]. Institutional Insights - Different institutions exhibit varying preferences for bond allocations, with banks focusing on interest rate bonds and insurance companies favoring low-risk bonds to meet liability requirements [7][8]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the PBOC is seen as a move to support fiscal efforts and enhance liquidity for financial institutions, confirming a loose monetary stance [8].