1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects the liability growth rate of the real - sector to decline to around 8.3% in March 2026, and to around 8.0% by the end of 2026. The liability growth rate of the government sector is expected to drop to around 11.5% in March and around 11.6% by the end of 2026. It is recommended that investors control stock and bond positions, focus on short - term and money - market assets, and the equity style is expected to shift towards value - dominance [2][17][18]. - Amid the China - US competition and potential re - valuation of the US technology sector, global funds may flow to China. Attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate enters an appreciation channel. The risk preference may enter a range - bound state, and new funds in the financial market may be limited [6][20]. - In the short term, due to the Iran - US conflict, the A - share market is negatively correlated with international oil prices. Long - term bond prices have stabilized, and ultra - long - term bond prices have risen. The report continues to recommend the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the CSI 1000 Index (20% position) [7][21][22]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio and an A - share portfolio, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][58]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In February 2026, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4%, up from 8.3% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in March and remain stable in April. The government debt increased by 223.6 billion yuan last week, higher than the planned 185.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of February was 12.1%, down from 12.6% previously, and is expected to further decline to around 11.5% in March [2][17][18]. - The money market tightened last week. It is still expected that the peak of the money market in March will occur on the 5th. It is estimated that the one - year Treasury bond yield will have a lower limit of about 1.3% and a central value of around 1.4%, with a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut expected in 2026 [3][18]. Asset Side - The physical data from January to February showed a significant improvement compared to December. The two sessions set the annual real economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5 - 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 5.0% [19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024. The government put forward three major policy goals in 2016. Currently, the de - leveraging on the liability side has not ended, but the room for further de - leveraging is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the money market tightened, and the Iran - US conflict dominated the market. The A - share market was bearish, and the bond market was bullish, with the growth style prevailing. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 1 basis point to 1.82%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 4 basis points to 2.35%. The stock - bond cost - performance ratio favored bonds [7][21]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.7%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and textile and apparel had the highest gains, while non - bank finance, computer, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the largest declines [29]. Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of March 29, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, communications, and basic chemicals, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, social services, textile and apparel, and steel. The industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, basic chemicals, and automobiles, while those with the largest decline were computer, communications, power equipment, electronics, and building decoration [30]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 2.11 trillion yuan, down from 2.21 trillion yuan last week. Public utilities, coal, social services, pharmaceutical biology, and textile and apparel had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while steel, basic chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building decoration, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest declines [33]. Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, building materials, basic chemicals, public utilities, petroleum and petrochemicals, and textile and apparel had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, computer, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, and electronics had the largest declines. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, securities, insurance, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, gaming, and consumer electronics [35][36]. Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were both increases and decreases. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.9 in February to 51.9, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index rose 1.6% week - on - week, and port cargo throughput rebounded. South Korea's export growth rate decreased slightly in February and increased to 50.4% in the first 20 days of March. Vietnam's export growth rate decreased from 34.3% in January to 6.3% in February [40]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic volume rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded to around the historical median level in March. Automobile trading volume was relatively weak seasonally, new - home sales were at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were at a historical high [40]. Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of March (March 23 - 27), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of March 27, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.81 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][58].

Group 1 - The report indicates a sustained "wide monetary + wide credit" environment, with China's new social financing in January reaching 72,208 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, and new RMB loans at 47,100 billion yuan, also above forecasts, suggesting a low risk of tightening funds [1][13] - The asset price outlook suggests a convergence of styles, with a focus on low valuation and high-performance stocks as external uncertainties rise, indicating a shift from high-risk trading to assets with higher safety margins [2][19] - The report highlights the performance of various asset classes in February, with the stock market showing differentiation, the bond market strengthening, and commodities experiencing volatility, while the RMB appreciated against the USD [30][41] Group 2 - The report provides quantitative asset allocation recommendations, suggesting an aggressive allocation of 10% in stocks, 45% in bonds, 15% in oil, and 30% in gold under an optimistic scenario, while a conservative scenario suggests 10% in stocks, 85% in bonds, 1.7% in oil, and 3.3% in gold [5][22] - The report notes that the stock-bond valuation ratio has decreased, indicating a reduced attractiveness of stocks relative to bonds, with the stock risk premium showing a historical low [44][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment through various indices, which can help investors make informed decisions regarding asset allocation [53][55]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in investment strategies, particularly in the context of the insurance asset management industry and its outlook for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - The forecast for 10-year government bonds is between 1.8% and 1.9%, while 30-year bonds are expected to yield between 2.2% and 2.4% [6][9]. - Approximately 70-80% of institutions predict that 10-year bonds will remain below 2%, with a significant portion expecting 30-year bonds to stay within the 2.2%-2.4% range [9]. - The yield on AAA-rated credit bonds is projected to be between 2% and 2.5%, influencing the actual risk-free rate for residents [12]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - A significant trend is the shift from non-standard to standardized assets, with a notable increase in allocations towards bonds and equities, while deposits and other non-standard investments are being reduced [13][15]. - The majority of institutions (over 70%) plan to increase their allocations to stocks, indicating a strong preference for equity investments [15]. Group 3: Insurance Liability and Product Trends - The reform in insurance liabilities is leading to a rise in the popularity of participating insurance products, which in turn reduces the demand for long-duration bonds [19][21]. - The shift towards participating insurance products is resulting in a higher allocation to equities compared to traditional insurance products [21]. Group 4: Factors Influencing A-Share Market - Three main factors are identified as influencing the A-share market in 2026: corporate profit recovery, liquidity environment, and industrial policy along with technological growth [22][26]. - 90% of institutions believe that corporate profit recovery is the most critical factor affecting market performance [26]. Group 5: Preferred Investment Indices - The most favored indices among insurance asset management institutions are the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 300, and A500, with 80%, 60%, and nearly 50% of institutions respectively selecting them [29][33]. - The preference for these indices is partly due to regulatory changes that have adjusted risk factors for insurance companies investing in stocks [33]. Group 6: Industry Focus Areas - The consensus among institutions highlights several key industry sectors: non-ferrous metals, electronics, computers, power equipment, telecommunications, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and military industry [34][39]. - The intersection of preferences from both insurance asset management and insurance companies reveals a strong interest in semiconductor, AI computing, and defense sectors [39]. Group 7: Investment Vehicles - Secondary bond funds are becoming a primary vehicle for insurance capital entering the market, with a notable increase in their allocation among insurance companies [41]. - The demand for overseas investments, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, remains high, while the interest in US dollar bonds has significantly decreased [45][49].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a structural trend influenced by technological waves and policy expectations, while the bond market is testing investors' decision-making abilities in a fluctuating environment [1] - The "fixed income +" strategy is becoming a preferred tool for many investors to navigate through cycles, characterized by its ability to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks [1] - Zhang Yongzhi, a seasoned expert with nearly 20 years of experience in the "fixed income +" field, emphasizes a macro perspective on asset allocation to pursue long-term sustainable returns [1][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the bond market showed stable overall performance, with a steepening yield curve; short-term bonds benefited from a loose funding environment, while medium to long-term bonds faced adjustments due to rising inflation expectations [2] - The convertible bond market exhibited characteristics of high-priced stocks, with performance influenced by both the liquidity environment of the bond market and the risk appetite of the stock market [2] - The equity market is characterized by an upward oscillation, with significant trading volume during periods of favorable policies; sectors such as technology and cyclical stocks are highlighted for their defensive and allocation value [3] Group 3 - Despite the recent rise in A-shares, the "stock-bond value ratio" indicates that the stock market still holds allocation value, providing a rationale for long-term capital to invest in equity assets [3] - Zhang Yongzhi advocates for independent thinking and a focus on absolute returns in a complex market environment, aiming to create long-term stable returns through flexible asset allocation and strict credit risk control [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery over the past month, with various fixed-income products achieving positive returns, particularly those with embedded options, while the stock market remains volatile and weak [2][3][9]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, all types of fixed-income products have generated positive returns, with option-embedded bond funds leading at 0.74%, followed by medium to long-term bond funds at 0.37%, short bond funds at 0.20%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.15%, and cash management products at 0.10% [3][9]. - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to stock and commodity market volatility, as well as a more favorable liquidity environment [9][19]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a recovery, with interest rates declining, supported by factors such as increased investor demand for bonds during the holiday season and a more abundant liquidity environment [9][19]. - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below the critical level of 1.8%, but further downward movement is expected to be limited in the short term [9][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the bond market's recovery may be nearing its end, with potential upward pressure on interest rates due to various factors, including stock market performance and inflation expectations [22][28]. - The strategy for investors includes maintaining positions in short to medium-term pure bond products while waiting for better entry points for long-duration bonds as yields rise [34][35]. Group 4: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to remain stable, with limited risks of widening credit spreads, and short to medium-duration products are favored [23][34]. - Investors are advised to continue holding medium to short-duration products to capture coupon payments, while being cautious with long-duration credit bonds due to increased volatility [23][34]. Group 5: Regulatory Updates - On January 23, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, which aim to simplify compliance requirements and enhance transparency in the fixed-income market [29][30].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and new energy vehicles[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-Spring Festival, while southbound capital is shifting from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banks[1] Support Levels - Short-term adjustments are expected to find strong support in the 5100-5250 point range, which aligns with the 250-day moving average and the starting point of the 2025 market rally[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] Asset Performance - For the week of January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 by 0.36%[2] - In commodities, WTI crude oil increased by 2.75%, while SHFE rebar fell by 0.66%[2] Inventory Levels - Current crude oil inventory is at 44,684 million tons, up by 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory has increased by 213,515 tons to 145,342 tons[3] Fund Behavior - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings rose to 3,493 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing market data of major broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their performance, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net-breaking rates [1][3][4] - **Market Performance**: All broad-based indices showed positive growth on February 9, 2026, with the highest daily increase observed in the ChiNext Index (2.98%) and CSI 1000 (2.26%). Year-to-date, CSI 500 recorded the highest growth (11.33%), followed by CSI 2000 (10.07%) and CSI 1000 (8.41%) [3][12][16] - **Moving Averages**: All indices surpassed their 5-day moving averages. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 remained below their 20-day moving averages, while other indices exceeded their 10-day and 20-day moving averages [14][15] - **Turnover Rates**: CSI 2000 had the highest turnover rate (4.02%), followed by ChiNext Index (3.55%) and CSI 1000 (2.85%). The turnover rate calculation formula is: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Constituents} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Constituents})}{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Constituents})} $ [18] - **Risk Premiums**: Risk premiums were calculated relative to the 10-year government bond yield. CSI 500 (96.67%) and CSI All Share (96.35%) had the highest 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (94.21%) and SSE 50 (92.62%) had lower values. CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 exhibited higher volatility in risk premiums [27][28][30] - **PE-TTM Analysis**: CSI 500 and CSI All Share had the highest 5-year percentile values (99.26%), indicating elevated valuations. Conversely, SSE 50 (83.8%) and ChiNext Index (64.71%) had lower percentile values. The PE-TTM formula is: $ \text{PE-TTM} = \frac{\text{Market Price}}{\text{Trailing Twelve Months Earnings}} $ [38][41][42] - **Dividend Yields**: Dividend yields were tracked to assess cash return rates. ChiNext Index (55.29%) and CSI 300 (37.02%) had the highest 5-year historical percentile values, while CSI 500 (4.46%) and CSI 2000 (0.83%) were significantly lower [47][50][52] - **Net-Breaking Rates**: Net-breaking rates reflect the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. Current rates were highest for SSE 50 (24.0%) and lowest for CSI 2000 (2.4%) [54][57][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (the remaining two trading weeks in February), the macro - liquidity environment is acceptable, and there seems no reason for continuous decline in A - shares, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. However, if the macro - liquidity tightens in March, it will be a real concern [8][23] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform [11][62] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In December 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%), in line with expectations. It's expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly to around 8.4% in February, and decline in March [1][18] - In the financial sector, last week's capital market loosened marginally, with the peak in February expected to occur this week [1][18] - In December 2025, the government debt growth rate was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [2][19] - Last week, the government bond net increase was 734.3 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 721.4 billion yuan), and next week's planned net increase is 7.02 billion yuan [2][19] - **Monetary Policy** - Last week, the average weekly capital trading volume increased, the capital price decreased, the term spread narrowed slightly, and the capital market loosened marginally [2][19] - The one - year Treasury bond yield rose unilaterally last week, closing at 1.32% on the weekend. It's expected to have a lower limit of about 1.3%, a central value of around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026 [2][19] - The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 49 basis points. The spread between the ten - year and one - year, and the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is expected to be in the range of 20 - 60 basis points. The future yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][19] - **Asset Side** - In December 2025, physical quantity data continued to operate stably compared to November. Attention should be paid to whether the economy can continue to stabilize or even rise marginally [3][20] - The annual real economic growth target for 2025 set by the Two Sessions is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][20] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and the convergence of the liability side is not over but has limited room [6][21] - Sino - US relations are in a state of equal - strength competition. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China. Attention should be paid to the RMB exchange rate [6][21] - Last week, the capital market loosened marginally, equities declined significantly, the value style continued to outperform, and the stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose 2 basis points to 1.32%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield fell 4 basis points to 2.25% [7][22] - The full - position equity strategy with a balanced style underperformed, and the broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.37pct last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, it has underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 2.52pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% [7][22] - The market performance last week was unexpected. Funds may have flowed out of the stock and bond markets to buy safer assets. The decline in US technology stocks may have affected domestic growth stocks. This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (50% position) and the CSI 1000 Index (50% position) are recommended [8][23] - The current broad - based index recommendation strategy focuses on position selection and style analysis, can accommodate large - scale funds, has small fluctuations and good liquidity, and will receive more attention in the context of the marginal convergence of the national asset - liability sheet [9][24] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, A - shares fell with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.3% [32] - Among the Shenwan primary industries, food and beverage, beauty care, power equipment, comprehensive, and transportation had the largest increases, while non - ferrous metals, communication, electronics, steel, and computer had the largest declines [32] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of February 6, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and communication, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, social services, and coal [33] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, machinery, national defense and military industry, and automobiles, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - ferrous metals, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - bank finance [33] - As of February 6, the crowding of communication, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemicals was at relatively high percentiles since 2018, while that of transportation, non - bank finance, real estate, pharmaceutical biology, and food and beverage was at relatively low percentiles [33] - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.4 trillion yuan, up from last week's 3.06 trillion yuan. Food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, coal, and media had the highest year - on - year trading volume growth rates, while steel, non - ferrous metals, building decoration, pharmaceutical biology, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest trading volume declines [35] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings** - This week, in the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, comprehensive, and power equipment had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while non - ferrous metals, communication, electronics, steel, and computer had the largest declines [39] - As of February 6, 2026, industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [40] - **Industry Prosperity** - **External Demand**: Mixed performance. In December, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 to 50.9, and most economies' PMI data in January showed an upward trend. The CCFI index fell 4.55% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January, and Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 23.9% in December to 34.3% in January [44] - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed performance. Highway truck traffic volume increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly decreased in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales were at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were relatively strong compared to the historical seasonality. As of February 1, the national second - hand housing listing price index remained flat compared to last week. As of January 30, the production material price index rose 0.9% week - on - week [44] - **Public Offering Market Review** - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The weekly growth rates of the 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles were 0.8%, 0%, - 0.6%, and - 1.8% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 1.3% [59] - As of February 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.94 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] - **Industry Recommendations** - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and ability to survive [11][62] - Combining the above three characteristics and the under - allocation in the public offering's fourth - quarter report, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11][62]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide details on their construction or evaluation [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [5][6][19][28][40][49][55] - The analysis includes comparisons of indices against their historical averages, standard deviations, and percentile rankings over the past 1 and 5 years, providing insights into valuation and market sentiment [32][43][45][54] - Key indices analyzed include the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, CSI All Share, and ChiNext Index, with detailed metrics such as risk premiums, PE-TTM values, dividend yields, and net asset ratios provided for each index [13][19][32][45][54][58] - The report highlights the relative valuation and investment attractiveness of these indices based on their historical positioning and current market conditions, but does not delve into specific quantitative factor or model construction [43][45][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysts are optimistic about the equity market in February with a balanced style, while the bond market has an increased risk of adjustment [2][7]. - The marginal expansion of the real - sector balance sheet in February is highly certain, and the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is low [2]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style analysis will gain more attention and favor from the market [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In December 2025, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%). It is expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly in February, and decline in March. The capital market tightened marginally last week. There is a risk of significant tightening in February, but the probability is not high [2][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 235.3 billion yuan (higher than the planned 141.3 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 721.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [3][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread narrowed. The one - year Treasury bond yield ended at 1.30% on the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and there may be a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in December 2025 continued to run smoothly compared to November. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 was around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has been in a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, financial institutions benefiting the real economy, and "housing is for living in, not for speculation." Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, the overall equity market declined, but value stocks strengthened. The long - end bond yield decreased slightly, and the short - end increased. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, the one - year increased by 2 basis points to 1.30%, and the 30 - year remained stable at 2.29% [7][21]. - In February, the analysts are optimistic about the equity market with a balanced style and believe that the bond market has little investment value. They recommend a 50% position in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and a 50% position in the China Securities 1000 Index [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding - out and Trading Volume - As of January 30, the top five crowded industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, and communication, with crowding - out degrees of 15.9%, 10.3%, 9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, social services, environmental protection, and steel, with 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding - out were non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, media, and communication. The top five with decreased crowding - out were power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [31]. - As of January 30, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics had relatively high crowding - out quantiles since 2018, while pharmaceutical biology, transportation, light industry manufacturing, beauty care, and non - bank finance had relatively low quantiles [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.8 trillion yuan last week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while national defense and military industry, automobiles, household appliances, commercial retail, and power equipment had the largest declines [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE(TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, computers, automobiles, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [37]. - As of January 30, 2026, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It showed mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in December to 50.4, and most of the disclosed PMI data of economies in January increased. The CCFI index fell 2.74% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December [42]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price increased last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at the historical low, and second - hand home sales were stronger than the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of January (January 26 - 30), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles of weekly returns were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.4%, and - 0.6% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.08% [59]. - As of January 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 4.04 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [62].