文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场整体上涨，时隔多年，重新回到3.9星。进入1月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2026年1 月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2026.1.6 巴菲特指标 100% 84.60% 80% 50% 2026.1.6 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高，市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 53.71% 41.56% 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 － 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% M78.71% √61.78% 50% NEW YOU WANT AND THE WATER AND AND A 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios[1][2][3] - The turnover rate of indices is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares} \times \text{Component Stocks' Turnover Rate})}{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares})} $ This metric reflects the liquidity and trading activity of the indices[15] - The risk premium is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a benchmark for assessing the relative investment value and deviation of indices. The report highlights that indices like CSI 500 and SSE 50 exhibit high 5-year percentile values for risk premiums, indicating relatively attractive valuations[25][26][29] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric, with indices such as CSI 500 and CSI All Share showing high 5-year percentile values (99.92%), suggesting elevated valuations compared to historical levels[37][40][42] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return to investors, with indices like the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 showing relatively high 5-year historical percentile values (57.93% and 31.65%, respectively), indicating their attractiveness during periods of market downturns or declining interest rates[46][51][53] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is evaluated through the "break net ratio," which measures the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. The report notes that indices such as SSE 50 and CSI 300 have higher break net ratios, reflecting market sentiment and valuation levels[52][55]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 07 年 月 日 债市开年连续下跌。新年伊始，债市连续下跌，其中以超长利率债上升最为明显， 10 年和 30 年国债较上周分别上升 3.6bps 和 4.3bps 至 1.88%和 2.31%。其它债 券利率虽然上升幅度相对较小，但也有不同程度的上行，债市走势超出我们此前 预期。从调整原因来看，年初债市下跌可能是多方面因素促成的。 首先，股市的强劲表现是最为突出的原因。开年股市连续上涨，上证指数突破 4000 点，开年两个交易日上涨 100 点以上。开年市场强劲的表现一方面吸引非银资金 从债市向股市转移，另一方面，风险偏好的提升也使得投资者在债券投资上保持 谨慎，缩短久期减配长债。其次，市场对供给的担忧上升，特别是随着首周较大规 模的债券发行量和单只发行规模的公布，引发对后续供给上升的担忧。首周政府 债净融资规模 6127 亿元，其中国债净融资 4950 亿元。本周 2 年和 10 年国债单 只发行规模分别为 1750 亿元和 1800 亿元，显著高于去年下半年单只发行水平， 与去年上半年单只最大规模基本持平。开年政府债发行节奏加快，以 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, and valuation metrics such as PE-TTM and dividend yield[1][2][4] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Component Stock Free Float Shares} \times \text{Component Stock Turnover Rate})}{\Sigma(\text{Component Stock Free Float Shares})} $ This metric reflects the liquidity and trading activity of the indices[19] - The risk premium of the indices is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a benchmark for risk-free rates. The report highlights the mean-reversion behavior of risk premiums and their volatility trends over time[29][30] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric to assess the investment value of indices. The report observes that the PE-TTM values of indices like CSI 500 and CSI All Share are at relatively high historical percentiles, while indices like SSE 50 and ChiNext are at lower percentiles[41][44][45] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return to investors. The report notes that indices such as ChiNext and CSI 300 have relatively high historical percentiles for dividend yield, while CSI 500 and CSI 2000 are at lower percentiles[50][52][56] - The report also tracks the net asset value (NAV) break rate, which indicates the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. A higher break rate suggests undervaluation, while a lower rate may indicate market optimism. Current break rates for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 300 are higher compared to others like CSI 2000 and CSI All Share[57][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current RMB exchange - rate appreciation is more likely the third scenario where domestic entities' risk preference changes, so it does not benefit Hong Kong stocks, and the sustainability of the RMB's strength is questionable. It is hoped that future RMB appreciation will be the first scenario, corresponding to the burst of the US tech bubble [17]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the bias of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the value style has a higher probability of relative dominance [9][58]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6% (previous value 8.7%), expected to decline to around 8.3% in December. The money market continued to loosen marginally last week. The central bank's stance indicates that the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, waiting for the quantitative fiscal target from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase in government bonds was 1707 billion yuan (higher than the planned 1148 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 174 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December from 13.1% in November [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. The one - year Treasury yield dropped to 1.29% at the weekend. The market may have over - anticipated a 2026 interest - rate cut. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries widened to 55 basis points. The money - market loosening may be approaching its limit [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: In November, physical quantity data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is 4.9%, and it is necessary to confirm whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. The Chinese government put forward three policy goals in 2016. Currently, the convergence on the liability side is not over but has limited space. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China [6][20]. - **Last Week's Market Performance**: The money market continued to loosen, risk preference rose, and the growth style dominated. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 1.84%, the one - year yield dropped 7 basis points to 1.29%, and the 30 - year yield remained stable at 2.22%. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 by - 0.32 pct last week and - 5.41 pct since July 2024 [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Bonds at the long end are considered to have investment value. For equities, a neutral stance is taken, with a focus on style. Before seeing the government's bond - issuance plan, the value style is expected to dominate. This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (60% position), the CSI 1000 Index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][22]. 3. Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares rose with increased trading volume. Among Shenwan primary industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials had the largest increases, while beauty care, social services, banks, coal, and food and beverage had the largest declines [28]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals. The trading volume of the whole A - share market rebounded. Transportation, non - ferrous metals, and other industries had the highest trading - volume growth rates, while banks, coal, and other industries had the largest declines [31][32]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE(TTM) of non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and other industries increased the most, while that of social services, beauty care, and other industries decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, and others [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in November, and export growth rates of some countries changed. Domestically, the second - hand housing price dropped, and quantity indicators fluctuated. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the industrial capacity utilization rate showed a fluctuating trend [41]. - **Public - Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of December, most active public - fund equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 26, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds slightly increased compared to Q4 2024 [55]. - **Industry Recommendations**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banks, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [9][58].

往后看，支持30年期与10年期国债利差进一步走扩的因素包括：股债性价比持续变化导致保险机构配置 盘减少、长久期负债减少导致银行对超长端配置需求减弱，以及若经济基本面改善斜率变陡带来债 市"牛""熊"切换。不过，若2026年政府债发行规模在超长端期限分配上较2025年明显减少，则预期差可 能带动利差收窄。 总体而言，基于当前全球流动性宽松、全球资本再配置的逻辑未改，以及国内基本面和政策面趋稳，短 期债市仍处于承压状态。30年期国债短期双向波动幅度加大，其与10年期国债的利差亦不排除进一步走 扩的可能。 12月，债市震荡运行，年末配置行情迟迟未现，特别是超长端，表现偏弱。近期，货币政策预期稳定。 12月22日，LPR报价持平。12月24日，央行公布将开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年，考虑到到期 3000亿元，则净投放1000亿元。截至12月24日（周三）下午，10年期、30年期国债活跃券收益率分别报 1.8370%、2.22%，较11月底分别上行0.8和4个基点。本周前3个交易日，收益率先涨后跌，30年期有初 步企稳迹象，10年期、30年期国债期货主力合约累计涨幅分别为0.14%和0.49%。交易者关注30 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily investment dynamics, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net asset break rates[1][2][4] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated as the sum of the free-float market capitalization of constituent stocks multiplied by their turnover rates, divided by the total free-float market capitalization of the constituent stocks[17] - The risk premium is measured relative to the yield of 10-year government bonds, serving as a reference for risk-free rates, to evaluate the relative investment value and deviation of the indices[27][29] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation reference to assess the investment value of the indices at the current point in time[37][41] - Dividend yield is tracked to reflect the cash dividend return rate, which is particularly significant during market downturns as high dividend yields often act as a safe haven[46][51] - The net asset break rate is defined as the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1, indicating undervaluation in the market[52][55]

白银价格持续走强。2025 年 12 月，全球现货白银价格创下历史性纪录。 （1）从白银定价逻辑来看，白银具有工业和金融两大属性。从工业属 性来看，2025 年工业用银占比超 60%，鉴于白银本身具有的高导电特性， 白银成为科技革命与能源转型的"战略血液"，数据中心建设和逆变器 及充电设施等需求场景，使得白银具有类似铜的工业品属性。从金融属 性看，全球信用货币信任度因财政赤字扩大和地缘动荡下滑，使白银成 为黄金之外另一种避险资金的优选标的。（2）从短期触发因素来看， 纽约 COMEX 交易所 12 月初四天内 60%的注册库存（约 4760 万盎司）被 实物交割，注册库存较 2020 年峰值下降超 70%，白银实物挤兑是发生白 银飙涨的直接触发因素。（3）往后看，中长期来看，白银支撑逻辑未 改，供需缺口持续扩大，供应端伴生矿属性导致扩产刚性，主产国扰动 进一步限制增量；光伏、AI、新能源汽车等领域的工业需求增长，叠加 全球货币宽松周期延续，降低持有成本并强化避险配置需求，金银比仍 存修复空间。短期需警惕美联储宽松预期透支、"去银化"技术突破等 可能扰动行情。 多资产图景： 整体收益方面，本周（12 月 6 日 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations between adjustments and rebounds, with mixed sentiments among investors regarding whether to cut losses or buy more [1] - The external environment is not optimistic, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut highlighting internal divisions, particularly concerning stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The A-share market has shown a structural performance with seamless transitions between sectors, leading to the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs despite some volatility [2] Group 2 - As the year-end approaches, there is a decrease in risk appetite among investors, which explains the recent market adjustments [3] - The stock-bond valuation ratio indicates that major indices are in a middle state, neither particularly cheap nor overly expensive, based on the PE-TTM and ten-year government bond yield [3] - The number of new individual stock accounts is not at a high level, suggesting that the current market conditions do not reflect the typical signals of a market peak [6] Group 3 - The core driving force behind the recent market rally since April 7 is attributed to positive domestic signals, including policy support for the capital market, technological innovation, and new domestic capital inflows [8] - Despite external influences and geopolitical tensions, the fundamental logic of the current market rally remains intact, encouraging a cautious yet confident outlook for medium to long-term investments [8]

| 简称 | 2022 | 2023 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22 | ■■ == | -25 | 5 | -15 | 14 | -4 | CARACARA TEAL | 1251 | OFFO | P | E | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | 44 | 3 | -26 | -14 | 9 | 28 | -0.36 | 39 | 64.9 | -34 | | | | 13 | 44 | 65 | 12 | -29 | -19 | 49 | 创业板指 | 0.09 | -29 | 108.4 | 399006.SZ | -31 | 37 | 000688.SH | 科创50 | ...