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做空投资者在什么时候交易?—来自日内数据的证据和对知情交易模型的启示 | 论文故事汇
清华金融评论· 2025-07-20 08:57
Core Viewpoint - Short selling plays an essential role in the stock market by suppressing asset bubbles and promoting price discovery, with increasing significance in global financial markets [2][4]. Group 1: Importance of Short Selling - Short selling has gained attention due to events like the GameStop short squeeze and the Archegos Capital collapse, highlighting its substantial impact on market dynamics [2]. - The article raises critical questions about how short sellers time their trades and the potential effects of different trading times on market trends [2]. Group 2: Development of Short Selling Mechanisms in China - As China's capital market gradually opens up, the short selling mechanism is being refined, which is crucial for establishing a mature stock market system [4]. - Understanding intraday short selling patterns is vital for regulators to prevent systemic risks and for investors to optimize trading strategies [4]. Group 3: Predictive Ability of Short Selling - The study categorizes trading days into three segments: opening (9:30-11:30), midday (11:30-14:00), and closing (14:00-16:00), analyzing the predictive capabilities of short selling in each segment [6]. - Findings indicate that all three segments exhibit significant negative predictive power for future stock returns, with the opening segment being the most predictive, followed by midday and closing segments [6]. - Opening short selling not only reflects overnight negative news but also predicts negative news over the next 12 weeks, while midday and closing segments show weaker predictive abilities [6].