石化产业复苏
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布局石化产业复苏周期正当时
量化藏经阁· 2026-01-26 00:08
Group 1 - The petrochemical sector has entered a low-level fluctuation phase, with ample future elasticity expected as the industry recovers from a down cycle that began after reaching a historical profit peak in 2021. The sector is anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy and the recovery of domestic demand [1][2][44]. - The "anti-involution" policy is being upgraded, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issuing a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1][7][44]. - The cost side of the petrochemical industry has certain support, with IEA predicting global oil demand to remain between 104-105 million barrels per day from 2025 to 2030, and a low likelihood of significant drops in oil prices [1][9][11]. Group 2 - The CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057.CSI) was launched on July 22, 2009, and includes all listed companies in the petrochemical sector from the CSI 800 index sample space. The index is heavily weighted towards basic chemicals (63.61%) and oil and petrochemicals (34.69%) [1][13][45]. - As of January 16, 2026, the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.44 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.55, indicating relatively low valuations compared to the CSI 800 index. The top ten weighted stocks account for 56.73% of the index [1][19][26][46]. - The average market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks is approximately 1580.30 billion, positioned between the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices. The index's performance is expected to benefit from structural market trends in late 2025 [1][23][28][46]. Group 3 - The Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF (159731) is designed to track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index and was established on December 2, 2021. The fund manager, Mr. Dan Kuan, has extensive experience in managing index funds [1][33][47]. - As of January 16, 2026, the ETF has a circulation of 549 million shares and a scale of 5.22 billion, with a significant increase in circulation over the past year [1][35][47]. - Huaxia Fund Management Company, established in April 1998, is one of the first national fund management companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, managing over 900 billion in non-monetary ETF products, ranking first among fund companies [1][41][42].