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石化行业周期拐点
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2026年石化行业周期拐点将现
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-31 03:09
Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's petrochemical industry has entered a low growth phase after a concentrated release of basic product capacity, with a focus on policy support for sustainable development by 2026 [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote domestic demand and build a large domestic market [1] - Multiple institutions, including Guosen Securities and Everbright Securities, predict that the petrochemical industry will see a cyclical turning point in 2026, with gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The domestic policy continues to guide structural optimization in the industry, including strict control of new refining capacity and promoting the elimination of outdated refining capacity [1] - On the international front, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle in 2025, while OPEC+ continues to adjust its production plans, reflecting a cautious attitude towards short-term energy demand [1] - The petrochemical sector is expected to benefit from a stable oil price environment in 2026, with core domestic petrochemical companies likely to see improved profit elasticity [2] Group 3 - China National Petroleum Corporation is expected to benefit from natural gas market reforms, leading to stable performance improvements [2] - Sinopec is focusing on domestic refining and chemical sectors, enhancing cost control and market share [2] - CNOOC is advancing its reserve and production increase while reducing costs and improving efficiency [2] Group 4 - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience profit restructuring opportunities in 2026, with specific sectors like fluorochemicals and potash fertilizers expected to see improved market conditions [2] - The implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy in the pesticide sector is expected to reshape market competition [2] - Breakthroughs in catalyst technology and biobased chemical production are crucial for enhancing competitiveness in high-end materials [2]