当前，化工行业的反内卷政策尚未完全出台，但预期将导致国内化工产能的大 幅放缓。中国作为全球化工行业的主要力量，其产能放缓将对全球供给端产生 重大影响。欧洲正在退出化工产业，美国扩张较慢，中东依靠收购股权发展， 东南亚和印度扩张有限。因此，中国产能放缓意味着全球供给端的转向。这一 转向顺应了当前背景下产能扩张逐渐放缓的趋势。 化工行业目前处于什么样的周期阶段？需求端有何变化？ 反内卷，化工从"吞金兽"到"摇钱树"20250824 摘要 化工行业正处于周期底部，但中国龙头企业现金流充沛，资产负债率低， 产能扩张放缓将提升潜在股息率。全球 GDP 增长支撑化工需求，供给端 改变叠加需求增长，有望带来行业景气度回升。 反内卷政策下，控制新增产能的煤化工、炼油、聚氨酯等领域龙头企业 即使在周期底部也有可观股息率；控制新增和存量产能的工业硅、纯碱 等过剩行业弹性更大；个研行业、制冷剂等领域则有望自然演绎景气度 上行。 中国基础化工行业上市公司资本支出放缓，自由现金流有望在 2025 年 或 2026 年周期底部转正，为历史性转变。2024 年石油化工上市公司 自由现金流已开始转正，在建工程处于固定资产比例下降。 欧洲化工 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨新安股份（600596.SH） [Table_Title] 硅基终端材料持续放量，静待周期品景气修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年中报，上半年实现收入 80.6 亿元（同比-5.1%），实现归属净利润 0.7 亿元 （同比-47.7%），实现归属扣非净利润-0.2 亿元（同比-197.7%）。2025Q2 实现收入 44.4 亿元 （同比-1.7%，环比+22.4%），实现归属净利润 0.4 亿元（同比+74.7%，环比+8.5%），实现归 属扣非净利润基本为 0（同环比均减亏）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] %% %% research.95579.com 1 新安股份（600596.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 硅基终端材料持续放量，静待周期品景气修复 马太 李禹默 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525060002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年中报，上半年实 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂逐步复产，组件开标价格提升 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | 孙伟东 | 有色金属首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 8 月 24 日 | | 从业资格号: | F3035243 | | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] | | 投资咨询号: | | Z0014605 | | | | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | 新疆大厂东部基地本周复产 8 | 台，后续有进一步复产计划，但 | | | | | 也需观察其实际落地进展。南方开工基本已经到达高位，后期 | | | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 联系人 肖嘉颖 分析师 （有色金属） 从业资格号: F03130556 Email： jiaying.xiao@orientfutures.com [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂东部基地本周复产 8 台，后续有进一步复产计划，但 也需观察其实际落地进展。南方开工基本已 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a standard investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors within the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the explosion at Kanto Denka's facility in Japan, which is expected to create opportunities for domestic electronic gas suppliers as Kanto Denka holds a 90% market share in nitrogen trifluoride production in Japan [6][13]. - The first World Humanoid Robot Games held in Beijing is seen as a catalyst for the robotics industry's development, showcasing technological innovation and attracting talent [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the structural optimization of supply in the chemical sector, suggesting a focus on sectors with significant elasticity and competitive advantages, such as organic silicon and membrane materials [6][15]. Industry Performance - The report notes that during the week of August 11 to August 15, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.37%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 2.46%, outperforming the market slightly [6][18]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included modified plastics (up 12.29%) and fluorochemicals (up 5.81%), while the worst performers were civil explosives (down 3.02%) and compound fertilizers (down 1.81%) [6][19]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 15.38%) and propylene (up 4.00%), while notable declines were observed in butanone (down 7.16%) and liquid ammonia (down 5.89%) [6][26]. - The report tracks price differentials, with significant increases in the propylene-propane differential (up 33.47%) and decreases in the bisphenol A-phenol differential (down 26.57%) [6][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from supply-side reforms, particularly organic silicon, membrane materials, and dye sectors, with recommended companies including Hoshine Silicon Industry and Zhejiang Longsheng [6][15]. - It also highlights the growing demand for health additives and sugar substitutes driven by new consumer trends, recommending companies that emphasize technological and product differentiation [6][16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a rebound in the prices and profitability of its core silicone rubber products due to the upstream DMC returning to a price increase phase, with industrialization of silicon-carbon anode business anticipated to commence in 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The rating is maintained at "Buy". The company is projected to benefit from the recovery in DMC prices, which will alleviate the pricing pressure on silicone rubber products. The EPS estimates for 2025-2026 have been raised to 0.79 (+0.01) and 0.94 (+0.04) respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 EPS at 1.12. The target price has been adjusted to 26.42, referencing a 2025 PE of 33.45 times [2]. - DMC prices have shown a moderate recovery, which is expected to reduce the downward pressure on silicone rubber prices. DMC, being the core upstream raw material for the company's silicone rubber business, saw a price increase from 10,800 RMB/ton to 12,500 RMB/ton since July, which is anticipated to positively impact product pricing [2][3]. Segment Performance - The construction adhesive segment is experiencing a revenue decline of 5.72% in 2024, but sales volume is increasing. The company maintains its market share due to brand advantages, particularly in the curtain wall and home decoration sectors, despite pressures in the hollow glass market [3]. - In the industrial adhesive segment, electronic, automotive, and photovoltaic revenues are projected to grow by 37.88%, 30.59%, and decline by 9.76% respectively in 2024. The electronic and automotive sectors benefit from "trade-in" incentives and new customer acquisitions, while the photovoltaic sector faces competitive pricing pressures [3]. - The industrialization of silicon-carbon anodes is set to accelerate in 2025, with the company establishing a 3,000 tons/year production line for lithium battery silicon-carbon anodes. This marks a critical transition from small-scale pilot production to industrial-scale manufacturing, with a comprehensive product line that meets various battery system requirements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, benefiting leading companies with significant scale advantages and cost efficiencies [8] - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention [3] - The consumption electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The phosphorous chemical sector is tightening due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5] - The vitamin market is facing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to BASF's force majeure [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the ChiNext Index increased by 8.58%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.37% [14] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.16%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.46% [15] Key Industry Dynamics - Covestro has cut its TDI supply to the Chinese market by 15%, exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's subsidiaries are merging to optimize management and improve operational efficiency [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4] - **Phosphorous Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental regulations and rising demand from new energy sectors suggest a tightening market [5] - **Fluorine Chemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants supports stable profitability [5] - **Textile Sector**: Polyester filament inventory depletion is expected to benefit companies like Tongkun and New Fengming [5] Sub-industry Performance - The polyurethane sector is seeing stable prices for pure MDI and a slight decline for polymer MDI [27][32] - The tire industry shows a mixed performance with full steel tire production increasing while semi-steel tire production is declining [47][50] - The pesticide market is experiencing price fluctuations, with glyphosate prices rising slightly [52] Price Trends - The average price of urea is reported at 1762.6 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.74% [60] - The price of phosphoric acid remains stable, with diammonium phosphate at 3999.38 RMB/ton [64] - The price of vitamins A and E remains unchanged at 64 RMB/kg and 67.5 RMB/kg respectively [76][77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the organic silicon industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and a favorable supply-demand balance [4][5]. Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a significant shift in demand from traditional sectors like real estate to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which are expected to drive double-digit growth in domestic consumption [4][5][55]. - Domestic consumption of organic silicon DMC is projected to reach 1.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a further increase to 1 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking a 24% growth [4][6][31]. - The report highlights that while the construction sector's contribution to organic silicon demand is declining, the demand from new energy vehicles and photovoltaics remains robust, supporting overall industry growth [4][5][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Superior Material for National Economy - Organic silicon materials are characterized by their unique Si-C bonds and are widely used across various sectors, including construction, electronics, and automotive [4][14][17]. 2. Resonance of Domestic and Foreign Demand Boosts Prosperity, New Energy Catalyzes Incremental Demand 2.1 Sustained High Demand and Upgrading Consumption Structure - China's organic silicon consumption accounts for approximately 60% of global demand, with significant growth potential in emerging markets [4][31][60]. 2.2 Construction Impact Slowing, New Energy Drives Incremental Domestic Demand - The construction sector's share of organic silicon demand has decreased from 31% in 2022 to 25% in 2024, while sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics are experiencing rapid growth [4][31][36]. 2.3 Strong Overseas Demand Boosts Exports, China Expected to Continue Capturing Overseas Market Share - Domestic exports of polysiloxane reached 545,600 tons in 2024, a 34% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth driven by cost advantages [4][60][61]. 3. Reduction of Overseas Capacity, Domestic Capacity Peaks, Deep Processing Highlights Bottom Value 3.1 Overseas Capacity Expected to Exit - The report notes that overseas organic silicon DMC capacity is expected to decline due to cost and environmental factors, creating opportunities for domestic producers [4][5][60]. 3.2 Domestic Expansion Cycle Concludes - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity is projected to reach 3.44 million tons by the end of 2024, nearly doubling since 2020, with the expansion cycle now concluded [4][5][60]. 3.3 Intermediate Cost Curve Flat, Industry Widespread Losses - The report indicates that while some companies may enhance profitability through downstream processing, the overall sector has faced prolonged losses, highlighting a strong demand for profitability recovery [4][5][60]. 4. Supply-Demand Inflection Point Evident, Historical Elasticity Significant - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is improving, with domestic operating rates expected to rise from 67% in 2024 to 76% and 83% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5][60]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated companies with scale advantages and strong downstream processing capabilities, such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Dongyue Silicone Materials, and Xingsheng Group [4][5][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "in line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [7][5]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry index rose by 4.51% in July 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 0.77 and 0.96 percentage points, respectively [10][7]. - The report suggests continued focus on the pesticide, organic silicon, and polyester filament sectors, which are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The basic chemical industry index has increased by 41.50% over the past year, ranking 14th among 30 major industries [10][7]. - In July 2025, 26 out of 33 sub-industries saw an increase, with modified plastics, polyurethane, and civil explosives leading the gains at 16.69%, 14.01%, and 12.09%, respectively [11][10]. Product Price Tracking - The report indicates a continued downward trend in chemical product prices, with 177 products showing a decrease in July 2025 [7][11]. - Notable price increases were observed in TDI, trichloromethane, and coking coal, with respective rises of 43.29%, 32.79%, and 32.56% [7][11]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights the launch of a three-year action plan by the China Pesticide Industry Association to combat issues like hidden additives and illegal production in the pesticide sector [29][30]. - A significant investment of 2.32 billion yuan by Shandong Haihua in Inner Mongolia's largest natural soda ash mine is noted, aimed at optimizing product structure and expanding development space [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with the organosilicon expansion cycle nearing its end, and a potential bottom recovery in the industry; the demand for silicon-based terminal materials is driven by emerging applications, accelerating high-end substitution; glyphosate supply and demand remain stable, awaiting a turning point, with considerable elasticity [3][9]. Company Overview - The company, established in 1965, introduced glyphosate technology in 1987 and entered the organosilicon field in 1997, gradually forming a dual business model of crop protection and silicon-based materials. The company has accelerated its extension into the new energy sector, forming a new industrial pattern of "traditional chemicals + high-end materials + new energy" [5][20]. Financial Analysis - The company is currently in a bottom accumulation phase, with significant revenue and profit fluctuations. In 2021, benefiting from a surge in core product prices, the company achieved a revenue of 18.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%, and a net profit of 2.65 billion yuan, up 354.6% year-on-year. However, in 2023-2024, due to the impact of overseas pesticide inventory cycles and oversupply in organosilicon, the company's main product prices have declined, leading to a decrease in performance [33][34]. Organosilicon Market - The global economic recovery has driven strong growth in overseas demand for organosilicon, with China's export demand showing an upward trend. The domestic apparent consumption of organosilicon is steadily increasing, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [6][60]. Glyphosate Market - Glyphosate is the largest herbicide in the global market, with stable demand supported by the growing planting area of genetically modified crops. The company, as a major producer of glyphosate, holds over 70% of the global market share, and the industry is expected to stabilize and potentially recover through self-discipline [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 450 million, 750 million, and 1.11 billion yuan respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance as product demand recovers [9].

Core Viewpoint - Silicon Treasure Technology (300019.SZ) highlights the promising application prospects of silicone materials in the robotics field due to their soft skin-friendly properties, temperature resistance, biocompatibility, non-toxicity, radiation resistance, and environmental stability [1] Company Summary - The company currently has no clients or orders in the robotics sector but plans to actively explore new product application points based on market and customer demands in the future [1]