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东吴证券:上调宁德时代目标价至440.0元,给予买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-31 04:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that CATL's performance in Q2 2025 slightly exceeded expectations, with an increase in net profit margin, leading to an upgraded target price of 440.0 CNY and a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, CATL achieved revenue of 178.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit of 30.5 billion CNY, up 33% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 27.2 billion CNY, reflecting a 36% increase year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 94.2 billion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 11% [2]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.6%, with a net profit margin of 17.5%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 percentage points [2]. Production and Sales - In Q2 2025, CATL's battery production reached nearly 150 GWh, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 90%. For H1 2025, the total production was 310 GWh, a 47% increase year-on-year, with an expected shipment volume of 270 GWh, up 32% year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates a total shipment volume of 650 GWh for the year, representing a growth of over 35%, with energy storage expected to contribute 140-150 GWh, marking a growth of over 50% [3]. Pricing and Profitability - In H1 2025, revenue from the power battery segment was 131.6 billion CNY, a 17% increase year-on-year, while the average price per watt-hour was 0.69 CNY, down 13% year-on-year. The gross margin for this segment was 22.4% [4]. - The energy storage segment generated 28.4 billion CNY in revenue, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, with an average price of 0.59 CNY per watt-hour, down 20% year-on-year [4]. Other Business Segments - Revenue from battery material recycling was 7.9 billion CNY, down 45% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 26%, up 18 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The mining resources segment reported revenue of 3.4 billion CNY, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9% [4]. Exchange Gains and Inventory - In Q2, CATL recorded an estimated exchange gain of 1.5 billion CNY, benefiting from the appreciation of the Euro. The company also reported investment income of 1.5 billion CNY, a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter [5]. - As of the end of Q2, inventory increased to 72.3 billion CNY, up 21% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to an increase in inventory of 11.2 billion CNY [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts of 66.1 billion CNY, 80.2 billion CNY, and 96.6 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 20% respectively. The target price of 440 CNY corresponds to a PE ratio of 25 for 2025 [5].