Workflow
矿石产业
icon
Search documents
《黑色》日报-20251210
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are affected by the decline in raw material coking coal prices. The fundamentals show a trend of production reduction. Considering that coking coal prices have not stabilized, steel is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3000 yuan for rebar and 3200 yuan for hot - rolled coils in May. The convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can continue to be held, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio arbitrage should stop profit and exit [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will oscillate weakly. One - sided trading can short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1450 - 1600. The recommended arbitrage is to go long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, it is also viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1000 - 1150, and the same arbitrage strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions all decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price decreased from 3164 yuan/ton to 3111 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan, while slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products in different regions mostly decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 7 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar output decreased significantly by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3 tons to 10.2 tons, an increase of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 855.7 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of 01 - contract for various iron ore types decreased, such as the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 51.9 yuan/ton to 50.4 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton to 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%, while the global shipment volume increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the Coke 01 - contract price decreased from 1537 yuan/ton to 1514 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 - contract price decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 1003 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The raw coal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, while the steel mill coke inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory: The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251120
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 03:04
| | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【201】1292号 2025年11月20日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 150 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3116 | 3139 | -23 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3162 | 3180 | -18 | 58 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3070 | 3090 | -20 | 150 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 3 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3220 | 3210 | 10 | -57 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...