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《黑色》日报-20251210
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are affected by the decline in raw material coking coal prices. The fundamentals show a trend of production reduction. Considering that coking coal prices have not stabilized, steel is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3000 yuan for rebar and 3200 yuan for hot - rolled coils in May. The convergence arbitrage of the January hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can continue to be held, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio arbitrage should stop profit and exit [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will oscillate weakly. One - sided trading can short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1450 - 1600. The recommended arbitrage is to go long on coke and short on coking coal. For coking coal, it is also viewed as oscillating and bearish on a one - sided basis, with a range of 1000 - 1150, and the same arbitrage strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions all decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price decreased from 3164 yuan/ton to 3111 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan, while slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products in different regions mostly decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 7 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar output decreased significantly by 16.8 tons to 189.3 tons, a decline of 8.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3 tons to 10.2 tons, an increase of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 855.7 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of 01 - contract for various iron ore types decreased, such as the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 51.9 yuan/ton to 50.4 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.5 yuan/ton to 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decline of 8.1%, while the global shipment volume increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 8.5 tons to 318.5 tons, a decline of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 48.2 tons to 15348.98 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 42.3 tons to 8984.7 tons, an increase of 0.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the Coke 01 - contract price decreased from 1537 yuan/ton to 1514 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 - contract price decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 1003 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The raw coal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [6]. Inventory - Coke inventory: The all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, an increase of 6.5%, while the steel mill coke inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory: The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251120
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market showed a weakening trend with a decline in prices and a decrease in demand. It's recommended to take a bearish approach in trading [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile at a high level. It's advised to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both the coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a bearish and volatile trend. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines, with reference ranges of 1600 - 1700 for coke and 1100 - 1200 for coking coal [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Prices of most steel products decreased, such as the 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar stopped falling and rebounded to 215 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billet and slab remained unchanged, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in most regions decreased, and the profit of rebar in some regions changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, but the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.6%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7%, with rebar inventory down 2.8%, and hot - rolled coil inventory basically unchanged [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased [5] Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6%, but the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 17.2%. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% [5] Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The steel - linked coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased [8] Supply - The weekly coke output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9%, and the daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The weekly output of raw coal and clean coal of sample coal mines increased [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the coke output of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills changed [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly [8] Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased, indicating a more unbalanced supply - demand relationship [8]