1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not yet peaking. Last week, the increase in production was relatively slow, with an increase of 30,000 tons in hot metal production and stable production of the five major steel products. The increase in the production of off - balance - sheet steel products was also not significant, and the production increment may have flowed more to steel billets. The apparent demand has increased, and the increase in apparent demand is greater than that in production, so the inventory continues to decline. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the environmental protection - related production cuts of steel mills in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is acceptable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. From the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, there is insufficient upward driving force, and the upward elasticity of steel prices mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut of BHP has made raw materials stronger, which supports steel prices [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undetermined, and the resumption of hot metal production is the focus of future iron ore trading. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on the shipment of some Australian ports. On the demand side, the hot metal production has increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and the situation of steel exports is acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East being offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the inventory aspect, the inventories of steel mills and ports have both decreased slightly. With the recent decline in the arrival volume and the high - level continuous port clearance under the resumption of production of steel mills, the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain unchanged. Looking forward to the future, under the influence of factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changeable market sentiment, the resumption of production of steel mills, and the undetermined BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 780 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first - round price increase on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for the coke price increase, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, the sharp increase in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses, and the coking operation starts to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, the steel price has rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined, and the coke futures had fully anticipated the coke price increase before, and now there is an expectation of a peak - to - decline. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the auction transactions of Shanxi spot have started to decline, and the Mongolian coal quotation has followed the futures down. After the price increase, the restocking demand has weakened, and downstream enterprises with low profits are more resistant to high - priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight decline recently. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory has started to show a change of active restocking by downstream enterprises. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined. It is necessary to focus on the macro - impact and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the ferrosilicon production decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the production area's operating rate also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the repair of manufacturers' profits, but Qinghai and Gansu still have serious losses. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period. The ferrosilicon export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards. Pay attention to the settlement electricity price changes in the production areas in March. The cost side of ferrosilicon has certain support. Looking forward to the future, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in a balanced state. Pay attention to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the main silicomanganese contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the silicomanganese supply continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks. The production pressure in the southern region is still relatively high, and the loss amplitude has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern production area is on the verge of profit and loss, but the manganese ore cost of manufacturers is mostly the ore at the previous low price, so the profit should be better than the calculation. Pay attention to the implementation of silicomanganese production cuts in the future. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may become marginally looser in the near future. With the increase in arrivals and the expected contraction in demand, the port inventory has started to increase. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on the comprehensive costs of shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may run at a high level. In general, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. There is an expectation of silicomanganese production cuts, which may weaken the demand for manganese ore. Pay attention to the supply change of silicomanganese in April. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800 [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 14 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar increased by 11 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The production of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.0%. The rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.7%, among which the electric - furnace production decreased by 1.5 tons to 32.7 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.3%, and the converter production decreased by 4.0 tons to 165.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 1.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 10.4%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, with a growth rate of 2.2%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, with a growth rate of 1.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Coking Fine, PB Fine, etc. decreased to varying degrees, and the 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5, with a decrease rate of 2.3%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.0 to 17.5, with a decrease rate of 10.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased to varying degrees, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, with a growth rate of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, with a decrease rate of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 18.4% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 6072.2 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 6817.7 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 52 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 3.0% and 3.0% respectively [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 0.0% and 1.5% respectively. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 66 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.1%. The production of raw coal decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.64%, and the production of clean coal decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6% [5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.2 tons to 90.1 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.4%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5 tons to 691.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, with a growth rate of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 216.1 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - The closing price of the fer

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: April 1, 2026 [2] Group 2: Spot Market Australia - **Newman Powder**: Latest price is 747, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 7. The discounted price on the futures market is 798.7, the forward price is 100.45, with a daily decrease of 0.65 and a weekly decrease of 1.65. The import profit is -30.36 [3] - **PB Powder**: Latest price is 777, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 826.9 [3] - **Mac Powder**: Latest price is 766, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 836.7, the forward price is 100.55, with a daily decrease of 0.60 and a weekly decrease of 0.75. The import profit is 11.38 [3] - **Jimbobara**: Latest price is 730, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 821.5, the forward price is 96.90, with a daily decrease of 0.60 and a weekly increase of 0.45. The import profit is -3.86 [3] - **Mixed Powder**: Latest price is 709, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 13. The discounted price on the futures market is 845.5, the forward price is 99.70, with a daily decrease of 0.85 and a weekly decrease of 1.20. The import profit is -40.67 [3] - **Ultra - Special Powder**: Latest price is 668, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 10. The discounted price on the futures market is 887.6, the forward price is 94.15, with a daily decrease of 0.80 and a weekly decrease of 1.00. The import profit is -31.18 [3] - **Caribbean Powder**: Latest price is 943, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 881.8, the forward price is 126.10, with a daily decrease of 0.75 and a weekly decrease of 1.10. The import profit is 6.88 [3] Brazil - **Brazilian Blend**: Latest price is 821, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 827.6, the forward price is 113.90, with a daily decrease of 0.80 and a weekly decrease of 1.45. The import profit is -22.85 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse IOC6**: Latest price is 741, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 818.9 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse SSFG**: Latest price is 746, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 17 [3] Non - Mainstream - **Ukrainian Concentrate**: Latest price is 877, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The discounted price on the futures market is 957.6 [3] - **61% Indian Powder**: Latest price is 719, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21 [3] - **Carrara Concentrate**: Latest price is 880, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The discounted price on the futures market is 900.6 [3] - **Roy Hill Powder**: Latest price is 764, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 841.0, the forward price is 99.60, with a daily decrease of 0.70 and a weekly decrease of 1.40. The import profit is 23.01 [3] - **KUMBA Powder**: Latest price is 836, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 815.1 [3] - **57% Indian Powder**: Latest price is 600, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 13 [3] - **Atlas Powder**: Latest price is 704, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 13 [3] Others - **PB Lump / Lump Premium**: Latest price is 888, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 20. The premium is 0.13, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0385 [3] - **Ukrainian Pellets / Pellet Premium**: Latest price is 877, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The premium is 17.35, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.05 [3] - **Domestic Ore (Tangshan Iron Concentrate)**: Latest price is 969, with no daily or weekly change. The discounted price on the futures market is 856.0 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange - **i2701**: Latest price is 769.0, with a daily decrease of 2.5 and a weekly increase of 2.5. The monthly spread is 17.5, the basis is 46.1, with a daily decrease of 4.7 and a weekly decrease of 24.1 [3] - **i2605**: Latest price is 808.0, with a daily decrease of 5.0 and a weekly decrease of 16.0. The monthly spread is -39.0, the basis is 7.1, with a daily decrease of 2.2 and a weekly decrease of 5.6 [3] - **i2609**: Latest price is 786.5, with a daily decrease of 4.5 and a weekly decrease of 4.0. The monthly spread is 21.5, the basis is 28.6, with a daily decrease of 2.7 and a weekly decrease of 17.6 [3] Singapore Exchange - **FE01**: Latest price is 101.51, with a daily increase of 0.04 and a weekly decrease of 0.59. The monthly spread is 1.91, the basis is -21.3, with a daily increase of 1.8 and a weekly increase of 6.2 [3] - **FE05**: Latest price is 106.23, with a daily increase of 0.26 and a weekly decrease of 0.79. The monthly spread is -4.72, the basis is -16.7, with a daily decrease of 0.9 and a weekly decrease of 10.3 [3] - **FE09**: Latest price is 103.42, with a daily increase of 0.03 and a weekly decrease of 0.64. The monthly spread is 2.81, the basis is -16.8, with a daily increase of 2.9 and a weekly increase of 0.9 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price may be slightly weak in the short - term due to the possible inflow of BHP iron ore at ports, but it is expected to strengthen again after the short - term impact fades as downstream demand recovers and steel mills maintain a stable resumption of production rhythm [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On March 31, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures showed a weak performance. It oscillated downward after the opening and then oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 808.0 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [7]. - The prices of main iron ore contracts on March 31: RB2605 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.48%; HC2605 closed at 3294 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; SS2605 closed at 14160 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; I2605 closed at 808 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [5]. - The black - series futures' long - short position changes on March 31: For I2605, the top 20 long positions decreased by 9,755, the top 20 short positions decreased by 12,684, and the long - short difference was 2,929 with a deviation of 1.24% [8]. 3.1.2现货市场动态与技术面走势 - In the spot market on March 31, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 - 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to decline, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 10 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.1.3后市展望 - News: Affected by Tropical Cyclone Narelle, four ports of Rio Tinto were closed since March 24, and three of them resumed loading on March 28. On March 30, Rio Tinto announced that the iron ore port operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia had fully resumed. The cyclones in February and recently are expected to affect about 8 million tons of iron ore shipments, and the company plans to make up for half of it while maintaining the 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance of 323 - 338 million tons [10][11]. - Fundamentals: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, down 5.956 million tons to 18.627 million tons, mainly due to the decline in Australian shipments which decreased by 8.756 million tons to 10.338 million tons, hitting a new low since late February 2025. Shipments are expected to gradually recover this week. The arrival volume last week increased by 1.547 million tons to 24.263 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in the past four weeks decreased by 2.92% compared with the previous four weeks, and the arrival volume is expected to rise first and then fall. On the demand side, affected by production restrictions of some steel mills during the Two Sessions, the daily average hot metal output decreased significantly before. Since mid - March, the resumption of production of steel mills has accelerated, and the daily average hot metal output last week rose to over 2.3 million tons, reaching 2.3109 million tons. Currently, the profit performance is good, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil blast furnace production are profitable. With the arrival of the peak demand season, the hot metal output is expected to have further growth space. In terms of inventory, the available days of inventory last week increased by 2 days to 23 days and are expected to remain around 20 - 23 days. The port inventory decreased slightly last week but still remained at a relatively high level of 170 million tons. Considering that the BHP iron ore ban may have been relaxed, the short - term inventory may further decline but is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [11]. 3.2行业要闻 - Powell said it's not time to determine the impact of the Iran war on the economy; energy price shocks are often short - term; it's difficult for monetary policy to hedge supply - side price pressures in real - time, and usually such shocks are ignored, but it's crucial to closely monitor inflation expectations; long - term inflation expectations remain stable; tariffs have a one - time impact on inflation; he reaffirmed the commitment to bring inflation back to 2%; he supported QE, saying that extensive research shows that buying long - term assets can lower interest rates; the Fed is closely monitoring private credit and there is no systemic risk; large language models will replace a large number of automatable jobs, and the current employment environment for young people is difficult but the prospects are optimistic; he advised the next - term Wash to avoid using monetary policy tools for other purposes. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell said the Fed can ignore oil price shocks but warned that patience has an end [13]. 3.3数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and desulfurization volume, the tax - free hot metal cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [15][19][22][23][28][29][35][37][43].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not peaking yet. The increase in production last week was relatively slow, and the increase in apparent demand was greater than that in production, leading to inventory depletion. The demand for hot-rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, but the domestic demand outlook remains weak, and export orders are stable. Due to the environmental protection production cuts in steel mills in the first quarter, although demand is weak, inventory depletion is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant. The upward drive for steel prices is insufficient, and the elasticity for upward breakthroughs mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut by BHP has made raw materials stronger, providing support for steel prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures contracts all declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3230 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 contract price fell from 3168 yuan/ton to 3146 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton. The profits of hot-rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees, while the profit of rebar in North China improved from -18 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.4%. The production of five major steel products remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, a decline of 2.7%, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, a rise of 1.8% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, a decline of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, a decline of 1.7% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, a rise of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, a rise of 2.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, a rise of 8.3%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, a rise of 1.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undecided, and pig iron production is recovering. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased significantly this period, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on some Australian ports. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month-on-month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel export orders are acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the future, the focus of iron ore trading will be on the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of inventory, the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased slightly month-on-month. Recently, the central value of arrivals has declined, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain stable. Looking ahead, affected by factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changing market sentiment, steel mill复产, and the undecided BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with the contract range referring to 780 - 830 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, including a 0.4% decline in the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines to 916.6 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis of some iron ore powders changed, with the 05 contract basis of Carajás fines increasing by 1.7 to 108.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Price and Price Index**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port decreased, such as a 0.9% decline in the price of PB fines to 777.0 yuan/wet ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged at 106.4 dollars/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45-port arrivals volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, a rise of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, a decline of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, a decline of 18.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The 45-port daily average desilting volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production and crude steel production both dropped to 0 [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The 45-port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0 days, a rise of 9.5% [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the coke and coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In terms of coke, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and with the significant increase in chemical product prices offsetting coke losses, coke oven operation has started to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, steel prices are rebounding at a low level, and the demand for replenishment is improving but resistant to high-priced raw materials. In terms of inventory, coke plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short-term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. In terms of coking coal, the spot coking coal market has cooled down and prices have declined. The demand for replenishment has weakened after price increases, and downstream enterprises with low profits are resistant to high-priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and coal daily production is gradually increasing. In terms of imports, port inventories continue to accumulate, and customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight recent decline. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, pig iron production is increasing, and coke production is also increasing. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory is showing a change of downstream enterprises actively replenishing inventory. Strategically, due to Trump's statement that the war will end soon, which has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products, and the continuous conflict affecting macro sentiment, the coking coal spot market has cooled down and prices have declined. The coke futures had fully anticipated the price increase in the early stage and are now expected to peak and decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The reference range for the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800, and the reference range for the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased, such as a 3.0% decline in the coke 05 contract price to 1702 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coke was 52 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts also decreased, with a 5.4% decline in the coking coal 05 contract price to 1149 yuan/ton. The 05 basis of coking coal was 47 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, a decline of 0.64%, and the clean coal production decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, a decline of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, a rise of 0.8% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, a rise of 4.2%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, a rise of 1.1% [5]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Yesterday, both the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of silicon manganese, the supply decreased continuously last week, and the operating rate has been declining for several weeks. The production pressure in the South is still relatively high, and the loss has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern region is at the break - even point, but the actual profit of manufacturers may be better than the calculation because of the lower - priced ore purchased earlier. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of silicon manganese production cuts. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may be marginally relaxed in the near future, and the port inventory has begun to increase due to the expected increase in arrivals and contraction in demand. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on comprehensive costs such as shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may remain at a high level. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts, there is a production cut expectation for silicon manganese, which may reduce the demand for manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the supply change of silicon manganese in April, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800. In terms of silicon iron, the production decreased slightly last week, and the operating rate in the production areas also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the profit recovery of manufacturers, but the losses in Qinghai and Gansu are still serious. On the demand side for steelmaking, pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In the future, attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of pig iron production recovery. On the non - steel demand side, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period, and it is not easy to inquire about goods at low prices. The silicon iron export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards, and attention should be paid to the settlement electricity price change in the production areas in March. There is certain support on the cost side of silicon iron. Looking ahead, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in balance. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range, with the reference range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of the silicon manganese and silicon iron main contracts decreased, with the silicon manganese main contract closing price dropping from 6588 yuan/ton to 6444 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closing price dropping from 5874 yuan/ton to 5630 yuan/ton. The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia increased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit decreased by 770.6%. The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly by 0.1%, and the production profit increased [6]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.2 tons, a decline of 2.2%. The manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 30.9 tons to 63.8 tons, a decline of 32.6% [6]. - **Demand**: The silicon iron demand decreased by 0.6%, and the silicon manganese demand decreased slightly. The pig iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, a rise of 1.3% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.4 tons to 5.5 tons, a decline of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.2 tons to 37.3 tons, a decline of 3.1% [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of near - end iron ore is supported by factors such as the decrease in Australian shipments due to hurricanes, the increase in Brazilian shipments, the improvement of molten iron production after the Two Sessions, and the enhanced expectation of rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Rate and Spot Price - The basis rate of I2701 on March 31, 2026, was 769.0, down 2.5 from March 30; the basis rate of I2605 was 808.0, down 5.0; the basis rate of I2609 was 786.5, down 2.0. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties also showed different degrees of decline, such as the price of Jinbuba powder dropped from 737 to 730, a decrease of 7.0 [1] 2. Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index decreased by 21, Mysteel 62% index decreased by 30, Mysteel 58% index decreased by 21. Import profits of different varieties also changed, for example, the import profit of Newman powder increased by 0.11 [1] 3. MS Inventory - The total iron ore inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17000, down 98 from March 20. Australian ore inventory decreased by 8, Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 44, and trader inventory decreased by 53 [1] 4. Strategy - **Night - session review**: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 815 yuan/ton, i2609 at 792.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 777 (-7) yuan/ton, and the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, was 789 yuan after discounting the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] - **Important information**: From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 120.7 tons to 1273.7 tons. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range. On March 31, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports increased by 98.5% month - on - month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with a total coke production capacity of about 5.70 billion tons. In mid - March, the output of key coal enterprises increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - **Trading strategy**: Volatile [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 14 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 12.04 CNY as of March 30, 2026 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.416 billion CNY for 2025, an increase of 8.62% year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 38.99% to 431 million CNY [1]. - The oil and gas production saw a significant increase, with equity production rising by 60.5% to 12.99 million barrels of oil equivalent, primarily due to the consolidation of Tethys and new wells coming online [2]. - The lithium resource business achieved a breakthrough with the launch of an integrated supply chain, producing 0.26 thousand tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide in 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.056 billion CNY, up 18.18% year-on-year and 11.75% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 119 million CNY, down 25.84% year-on-year but up 271.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The projected revenues for 2026 to 2028 are 6.909 billion CNY, 7.281 billion CNY, and 8.262 billion CNY, with net profits expected to be 1.117 billion CNY, 1.197 billion CNY, and 1.452 billion CNY respectively [9]. Mining Operations - The iron ore business maintained stable production, with a target of 2 million tons for 2026, supported by the completion of the magnetization roasting project [2]. - The average price for iron ore in 2025 was 102.4 USD/ton, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year [2]. Oil and Gas Sector - The average price for Brent crude oil in 2025 was 68.2 USD/barrel, down 14.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to achieve an oil and gas equity production target of 12.66 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2026 [2]. Lithium Resource Development - The company completed infrastructure for the Buguni lithium mine in January 2025, with the first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate expected to arrive in early 2026 [3]. - The lithium hydroxide project is projected to produce 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with sales expected to ramp up in 2026 [3]. Strategic Acquisitions - In 2025, the company invested 300 million CNY to acquire a 15.79% stake in Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry, marking its entry into the fluorite mining sector [8]. - A further acquisition plan is set to increase the stake to 85.69% in 2026 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.48%. During the roll - over period, both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply is shrinking, while demand is seasonally improving, leading to marginal improvement in the fundamental situation. Coupled with cost support, steel prices have returned to the upper edge of the volatile range. However, the strength of peak - season demand is in doubt, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.33%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. At present, the fundamental situation of hot - rolled coil has improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with cost support, the price has returned to the upper edge of the range. However, demand concerns remain, and the high - inventory situation limits the upward driving force. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.80%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, supply disruptions support the high - level operation of iron ore prices, but the room for demand growth is limited, and there is no substantial improvement in the iron ore fundamental situation. The over - valued iron ore price continues to face pressure. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Recently, three Chinese vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and China called for a cease - fire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region [7]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [8]. - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully resumed. The company expects to make up for half of the approximately 8 million tons of iron ore shipment volume affected by cyclones, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance remains at 323 - 338 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,200 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,333 yuan, down 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,328 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet remains unchanged at 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remains unchanged at 2,180 yuan. The volume - screw price difference is 90 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference is 1,010 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 775 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 772 yuan, unchanged. The Australian freight is 10.93 yuan, up 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian freight is 30.56 yuan, down 0.10 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 106.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 108.50 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,121 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume is 477,403 lots, a decrease of 139,352 lots, and the open interest is 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,294 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume is 310,343 lots, an increase of 27,129 lots, and the open interest is 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 808.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.80%. The trading volume is 158,111 lots, an increase of 15,153 lots, and the open interest is 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production conditions (including 247 - sample - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent - electric - furnace - steel - mill operating rate, and profit situation) [14][22][30] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the weekly output has decreased by 5.460,000 tons. Demand is seasonally improving, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.280,000 tons. However, the strength of future demand improvement is in doubt. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand continue to rise. The weekly output has increased by 5.400,000 tons, and the inventory level is still high. Demand has some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.120,000 tons. However, there are still concerns about demand. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is rising seasonally. However, the room for future demand growth needs further observation. Supply is running smoothly. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock" rating for the steel and ore sector in the black building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The support and pressure levels for different varieties are as follows: the support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; the support level for hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; the support level for iron ore is 750, and the pressure level is 840. For trading strategies, short-term operations are recommended for single positions. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held, and conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1] Important Information - From January to February, transportation fixed asset investment reached 355.8 billion yuan, with highway and waterway investments of 244.9 billion yuan and 28 billion yuan respectively [1] - The east - west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is operating at a full - capacity of 7 million barrels per day [1] - On March 30, Rio Tinto announced that iron ore port operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia had fully resumed, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipping guidance remained at 323 - 338 million tons [1] - The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatened to "completely destroy all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran" if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. Iranian officials said they would cut off power to the entire region if power generation facilities were attacked [1] - The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rials, and banning US and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On the 30th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1] - On the 30th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port increased by 4 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 786 yuan (up 4 yuan), Super Special powder was 672 yuan (up 4 yuan), 61.6% PB lump was 894 yuan (up 4 yuan), Carajás fines was 949 yuan (up 4 yuan), and SPGF mixed powder was 756 yuan (up 4 yuan) [1] - On the 30th, the spot market for coke at ports remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The volume of trade collection at the two ports decreased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase compared with the previous working day. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons (unchanged), and at Qingdao Port it was 900,000 tons (up 70,000 tons), with a total inventory of 1.37 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.436 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.547 million tons [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 24.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.719 million tons. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.843 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 176.6683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at national steel mills was 89.7856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.555 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0294 million tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.87 percentage points. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [2] Trading Strategy - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. For single positions, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held. Given that the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have been weaker than rebar recently, conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The current rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.86. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [2]