黑色建材日报 2025-08-25 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3119 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨（-0.06%）。当日注册仓单 157733 吨, 环比增加 21323 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141.1603 万手，环比减少 46508 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3361 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 14 元/吨（-0.41%）。 当日注册仓单 32215 吨, 环比减少 1777 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.8147 万手 ...

市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格窄幅震荡，短期市场情绪面有所反复。基本面方面，近一个月主流矿山发运同比持续贡献增量，但主流矿内 部有所分化，其中澳洲同比基本持平，巴西同比延续高增长。8月份非主流矿发运同比持续高位，预计会延续贡献一定增量。需求端， 7月份制造业和基建投资增速环比较快走弱，制造业走弱可能是上半年设备更新资金进度较快，而下半年驱动放缓。对比上半年用钢需 求来看，建筑用钢需求环比延续弱势，上半年制造业用钢同比增加超7%，而近期制造业用钢同比增幅较快走弱，对当前终端用钢需求 形成一定压制。海外需求方面，上半年海外铁元素消费量同比增加1.8%，其中印度粗钢产量同比增加9.2%，海外粗钢需求量仍维持在 偏高水平。 整体来看，当前进一步驱动价格上涨的因素减弱，市场可能转向终端用钢需求环比较快回落，短期矿价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

报告日期：2025 年 8 月 22 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："万亿用电+万亿成交"双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性 近期，A 股市场主要指数持续走强，沪深两市成交额频频突破 2 万亿元，两融 余额亦保持在历史高位。数据显示，截至 8 月 21 日收盘，上证指数、深证成 指、创业板指年内分别上涨 12.51%、14.45%、21.19%。8 月 21 日，国家能源局 发布 7 月份全社会用电量等数据。7 月份，全社会用电量 10226 亿千瓦时，同 比增长 8.6%，比十年前翻了一番，相当于东盟国家全年的用电量。日前，国家 外汇管理局决定，在上海、北京、天津、河北、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、山 东、湖北、广东、四川、宁波、厦门、青岛、深圳等 16 省市开展绿色外债业务 试点，鼓励非金融企业将跨境融资资金用于绿色或低碳转型项目。中国外贸保 持稳中有进态势，累计进出口增速逐月回升，前 7 个月实现 3.5%的增长，量质 齐升，十分不易。此前海关总署发布的数据显示，今年前 7 个月我国货物贸易 进出口总值 25.7 万亿元，同比增长 3.5%。其中，7 月当月，进出口总值 3.91 万亿元，同比增长 6.7%。 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-22 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3121 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 136410 吨, 环比增加 9965 吨。主力合约持仓量为 145.8111 万手，环比减少 65281 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3375 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 27 元/吨（-0.79%）。 当日注册仓单 33992 吨, 环比减 少 5669 吨。主力合约持仓量为 104.7482 万手，环 ...

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Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., with stock code 001203 and bond code 127070 [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was held on August 21, 2025, via Tencent Meeting, with participation from various securities firms and funds [2]. - Key company representatives included Chairman Niu Guofeng, CFO Zou Qingli, and Secretary of the Board Lin Puzheng [2]. Group 3: Lithium Mining Progress - The company is progressing with the mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, with the application currently under review by the Ministry of Natural Resources [2][5]. - The company plans to complete the first phase of the Hunan lithium mine project, with a capacity of 20,000 tons, by 2026 [5]. - The Sichuan Jiada lithium mine has an estimated lithium equivalent of 148.42 thousand tons, exceeding expectations, with drilling completed over 15,100 meters and a 95% discovery rate [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.972 billion CNY, with iron concentrate contributing 1.402 billion CNY and pellets 404 million CNY [4]. - Net profit for the same period was 406 million CNY, a decrease of 12.32% year-on-year, attributed to a 14.53% drop in the Platts index [4]. - The average selling price of iron concentrate was 827 CNY/ton, down 11.61% year-on-year, but still outperforming market benchmarks [4]. Group 5: Cost Management and Production - The company has successfully completed the pilot test of the sulfuric acid lithium extraction process, addressing key equipment and process issues [3][7]. - The production cost advantages from by-products like potassium sulfate and hydrofluoric acid are being evaluated, with potential revenue to offset production costs [7]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to remain stable, supported by national infrastructure projects, despite potential impacts from the commissioning of the Ximangdu iron mine [6].

黑色壹周谈 反内卷交易尘埃落地？ 淡旺季交接何去何从？ 20250821 摘要 黑色产业链反内卷溢价已基本出清，多晶硅、碳酸锂等前期强势商品亦 步入预期调整期，需关注四季度钢材需求能否提振供需，若需求不及预 期，或将面临震荡下行风险。 铁矿石近期表现出较强抗跌性，但需深入分析其背后逻辑，若钢材预期 不佳，铁水高位能否维持存疑。煤炭方面，产量核查及阅兵后产量恢复 情况，以及海运煤和蒙煤进口量快速回升，均需密切关注。 焦煤市场核心驱动力在于政策调控，若不实施限产，产量或将继续回升， 叠加海运煤和蒙煤增量，可能导致供需过剩。目前焦煤中下游库存较高， 持货意愿变化值得关注，政策态度或对价格形成一定指导。 动力煤日耗逐步见顶，进口量持续改善，国内供应逐步恢复至高位，总 库存开始累积，价格后续可能偏弱。需关注动力煤对焦炭的影响，以及 新疆超产问题。 钢材库存基数低，旺季需求尚未验证，正处于逐步累库阶段。价格下跌 时，下游补库意愿增强，出口好转；价格上涨则面临下游抵抗及出口减 弱。需关注 9 月份库存累积情况，以判断负反馈是否出现。 Q&A 最近一两周商品市场和股市的表现如何？黑色产业链的情况如何？ 最近一两周，商品市场和 ...

铁矿石日报 2025 年 08 月 21 日 大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 772.5 | 769.0 | 3.5 | I01-I05 | 24.5 | 22.0 | 2.5 | | DCE05 | 748.0 | 747.0 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | -43.0 | -39.0 | -4.0 | | DCE09 | 791.0 | 786.0 | 5.0 | I09-I01 | 18.5 | 17.0 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉 | 767 | 768 | -1 | 808 | 31 | 53 | 14 | | 纽曼粉 | 762 | 763 | -1 | 814 | 37 | 59 | 20 | | 麦克粉 | 754 | 756 | -2 | 817 | 40 | 62 | 23 | | 金布巴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Suggest a wait - and - see approach for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After previous adjustments, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products. It is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. - For coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly, such as the prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions and some futures contracts of rebar [1]. Cost and Profit - The costs of some steel production processes decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased slightly, and the profits of rebar decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the rebar output decreased. The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased [1]. Market Outlook - The rebar data has deteriorated, with a significant decline in August demand. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand are stable. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side shows that the iron water output remains at a high level, but the downstream demand has declined [4]. Inventory - The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased, and the inventory available days of some steel mills increased [4]. Market Outlook - In August, the iron water output will decline slightly. After the previous adjustment, iron ore will follow the rebound of finished steel products [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The coking enterprise's production increased slightly, and the demand side shows that the blast furnace iron water output fluctuates at a high level. The supply of coking coal has increased, and the downstream demand has slowed down [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased overall, and the coking coal inventory is at a medium level with different trends in different sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The seventh round of coke price increase is still expected. For both coke and coking coal, it is recommended to switch to a buy - on - dips strategy and conduct 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6].