十年间，我大体见证了从"合作的北极"到"破碎的北极"的演变。真正值得人们省思的似乎应当是：合作 是人塑造的，破碎难道不也是吗？如果就让它继续破碎下去，北极会怎样，这个世界又会怎样？（作者 是北京语言大学梧桐青年教授） 从"合作的北极"到"破碎的北极"，北极研究议程悄然生变：无论是常规治理议题还是非传统安全议题， 都和传统安全议题一起被塞进"唯安全"的叙事里，"安全焦虑"主导着北极研究的氛围。 第一，俄罗斯缺席的北极安全国际会议增多。以挪威自2024年起主办的"北极安全会议"为例，此会聚焦 单一议题——安全。有意思的是，其连续两年的会议主题似乎刚好印证了前述的阵营化逻辑。去年的主 题是"连接北美北极与欧洲北极"，即北极七国先划出阵营、确认敌我，这是第一步；今年的主题是"管 理极化与分裂"，即第二步——寻求其内部团结以对抗另一阵营。如果俄乌冲突明年仍在持续，那么该 会议主题是否会进入第三步——讨论双方在军事安全领域的技术性对抗呢？在今年的会议上，已有声音 认为"北极地区已经处于战争状态"。 第二，"斯瓦尔巴地缘政治"成为新热点。2024年3月北约的"北扩"进程完成后，波罗的海几乎成为北约 的"内湖"。北极观察家们 ...

Core Insights - The Arctic region has shifted from a "cooperative Arctic" to a "fragmented Arctic," influenced by both climate change and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Climate Change Impact - The Arctic is warming at a rate four times faster than the global average, leading to accelerated melting and fragmentation of sea ice [1] - The natural fragmentation of the Arctic is characterized by the rapid loss of sea ice, which poses significant environmental challenges [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 marked a turning point, leading to a division in Arctic governance and cooperation [2] - The Arctic Council, which has historically facilitated international cooperation, is facing its greatest challenge since its inception, resulting in a decline in collaborative efforts [2] - The geopolitical landscape is increasingly polarized, with Russia on one side and the Arctic Seven (U.S., Canada, and five Nordic countries) on the other [2] Group 3: Security Concerns - The absence of Russia from international Arctic security meetings is increasing, with upcoming conferences focusing solely on security issues [3] - The themes of recent Arctic security conferences reflect the growing division, with discussions centered on managing polarization and potential military confrontations [3] - The geopolitical significance of the Svalbard archipelago is rising, with concerns about military use challenging existing treaties [3] Group 4: Political Influence on Scientific Research - Political pressures are distorting the relationship between science and politics, leading to a climate of distrust among Arctic researchers [4] - The participation of U.S. representatives in Arctic conferences has drastically decreased due to security concerns and funding cuts, highlighting the impact of political dynamics on scientific collaboration [4] - The evolving narrative of the Arctic reflects a broader question about the role of human agency in shaping cooperation and fragmentation in the region [4]