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英国石油(BP.US)放弃今年石油需求见顶预测,预计需求持续增长至2030年
智通财经网· 2025-09-25 13:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that BP has revised its oil demand forecast, indicating that peak oil demand may not occur until 2030, contrary to previous predictions [1][3] - BP's annual Energy Outlook report highlights that factors such as consumption growth in emerging markets, slow energy efficiency improvements, geopolitical tensions, and continued use of petrochemical products will contribute to sustained oil demand [1][3] - The company anticipates that daily oil consumption will reach 103.4 million barrels in five years, up from 102.2 million barrels this year [1] Group 2 - BP's chief economist Spencer Dale and his team project that if current trends continue, daily oil demand could increase by 6 million barrels by 2035 [3] - The company expects oil demand to start declining around 2035, returning to current levels [4] - BP's outlook aligns with a broader industry trend, as the International Energy Agency is also preparing a report indicating that oil and gas demand will continue to grow beyond this decade [5] Group 3 - BP estimates that under the current development path, oil demand will remain significant after 2035, with daily consumption projected to be around 83 million barrels by 2050, an increase from last year's estimate of 75 million barrels [5] - The company believes that natural gas demand will grow during this period, primarily driven by LNG imports in Asia, with the U.S. and the Middle East as major suppliers [5] - A new uncertainty factor is the demand from data centers, which BP estimates will account for about 10% of global electricity demand growth and 40% of U.S. electricity demand growth by 2035 [5] Group 4 - Despite BP's significant investments in renewable energy in recent years, these projects have resulted in losses, prompting a strategic shift back to oil and gas [6] - The report emphasizes that the application of biofuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture technologies depends on government policies, with BP and Shell recently canceling plans for biofuel plants in Europe [6]