碳酸锂期货价格回调
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交易所限仓叠加本周去库放缓,情绪降温带动锂价回调
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 12:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The exchange's position limits have curbed the previous market excitement, leading to a correction in lithium prices. However, the demand for lithium carbonate remains resilient, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to continue the tight pattern. The report maintains a bullish view and suggests buying on dips [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 21, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, with the main contract falling by over 8% to the range of 91,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the cooling of the previous high - pitched market sentiment [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an increase in handling fees for some lithium carbonate contracts and set stricter single - day opening limits after the market closed on November 20. Starting from the trading time on November 24, the handling fees for LC2001 contracts will be adjusted to 0.032% of the trading amount, and for LC2602 - LC2605 contracts to 0.016%. The single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients will be restricted, with no more than 500 lots for LC2001 contracts and no more than 2,000 lots for LC2602 - LC2606 contracts [2]. - This week, the de - stocking rate of lithium carbonate has slightly slowed down. As of November 20, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream and downstream inventories continued to decline, while the inventory in other links increased [2]. Fundamental Situation - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate remains optimistic. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue from November to December. Downstream consumption is active, and the production schedules in November and December are still supported. The possibility of a short - term sharp decline is small. Terminal demand is also strong, with policies such as "replacing old with new" and purchase tax reduction supporting the production and sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year, and the improvement of energy storage economy driving the construction of new energy storage projects. However, the demand in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [3]. - Supply: As of November 20, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was about 22,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 565 tons (+ 2.7%). In October, 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The supply is still on the rise. The resumption progress of small - scale lithium mines needs to be closely monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the social inventory was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream inventory was 26,000 tons (- 8% week - on - week), the downstream inventory was 44,000 tons (- 9% week - on - week), and the inventory in other links was 48,000 tons (+ 10% week - on - week) [3]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The exchange's position limits have curbed the market sentiment, causing a correction in lithium prices. But the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to remain tight [4]. - Strategy: Maintain a bullish view and consider buying on dips when prices fall [4].