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川恒股份(002895):公司磷矿资源丰富 磷化工产品景气上行带动盈利提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by high phosphate ore prices and stable supply [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, up 46.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 960 million yuan, up 43.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 64.1% and 30.9%, respectively [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 430 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 34.6% and 28.3%, respectively [1]. Resource and Market Conditions - The company has abundant phosphate resources, with a total phosphate ore production capacity of 3.2 million tons per year, ensuring stable supply for downstream chemical production [1]. - Phosphate ore prices have remained high since 2021, with an average market price of approximately 1,020 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, showing stability compared to the previous quarter [1]. Product Pricing and Profitability - The prices of phosphate chemical products showed slight increases in Q3 2025, contributing to improved profitability for the company [2]. - The average price of feed-grade monoammonium phosphate in Q3 2025 was about 4,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2% [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 2.13 billion yuan in dividends since its listing, with a dividend payout ratio around 70% in recent years [2]. - In August 2025, the company announced a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 180 million yuan [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had repurchased 1.76 million shares, accounting for 0.29% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 40.14 million yuan [2]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.7 billion, 8.38 billion, and 9.37 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.3%, 8.8%, and 11.8%, respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.31 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.83 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.2%, 15.9%, and 20.1% [3]. - Based on the closing price on November 1, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16, 14, and 11 times, with an initial coverage rating of "recommended" [3].