东莞证券指出，近期生猪价格回落，头均盈利持续亏损，有望倒逼能繁母猪产能去化，目前存栏仍处高 位，未来仍有较大去化空间。白羽肉鸡价格略有回升，关注养殖龙头盈利边际改善机会。种业方面，农 业农村部提出加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业面临多重压力：生猪行业持续亏损，产能去化动力增强，能繁母猪存栏较去年 末高点减少37万头，自繁自养头均亏损114元，叠加非瘟疫情风险上升和政策引导减产能，行业去化加 速。白鸡方面，毛鸡价格低位震荡，祖代存栏处历史高位，但预计明年年中供给减少将带动价格反弹； 黄鸡受益消费旺季，产能低位支撑价格高位。动保行业景气回升，抗生素价格保持高位，国产疫苗增长 显著。 11月21日，截至9时54分，农牧渔ETF（159275）逆市上攻，场内价格现涨0.4%，成交额为143万元。 成份股方面，荃银高科20CM涨停，神农种业和中水渔业亦表现强势。另一方面，华英农业、益客食品 和冠农股份表现较弱。 消息面上，2025年11月14日行业数据显示生猪价格回落至11.74元/公斤，养殖利润持续承压，或加速上 游产能去化；同期白羽肉鸡价格回升至7.12元/公斤，养殖龙头盈利边际改善 ...

Core Insights - The core focus of the articles is on the significant advancements in China's seed industry, highlighting the self-sufficiency and innovation in seed breeding, which is crucial for ensuring food security in the country [3][6][15]. Group 1: Seed Industry Development - Over 95% of crop varieties are now independently bred, with domestic sources accounting for over 80% of livestock and over 85% of aquatic species [3]. - The national seed supply guarantee rate has reached 80%, an increase of 10 percentage points since 2020, indicating a strong reliance on domestic seeds for food production [8][15]. - The implementation of the Seed Industry Revitalization Action Plan has led to the development of new crop varieties, including disease-resistant wheat and high-yield soybeans, enhancing agricultural productivity [8][20]. Group 2: Regional Success Stories - In Jilin Province, farmers have successfully increased corn yields to over 3,000 kg per hectare by adopting new dense-planting varieties and protective tillage techniques [4]. - In Shandong Province, the introduction of late-sowing winter wheat varieties has allowed farmers to maintain high yields despite adverse weather conditions [6]. - Hubei Province has seen a transformation in cabbage production, moving from reliance on imported seeds to cultivating over 110,000 acres of locally bred varieties, significantly boosting local economies [10]. Group 3: Future Directions and Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for continued innovation in the seed industry, with a focus on enhancing the competitiveness of domestic seed enterprises [18][21]. - The goal is to achieve a 60% identification rate of genetic resources by 2030, with current identification at 35%, to better support breeding innovations [19]. - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to strengthen the management of seed varieties and promote the application of high-quality seeds in production to enhance overall agricultural productivity [20][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline in investment growth is a result of multiple factors, including both investment主体 factors and structural factors [1] - External environment is complex and severe, leading to cautious investment decisions from market entities due to declining investment returns [1] - The real estate sector has a significant share in overall investment, and its adjustment has a noticeable downward effect on investment growth [1] Group 2 - From January to October, national fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.2 percentage points compared to January to September [2] - Infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a drop from a 1.1% increase in the previous period [2] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period [2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the first nine months [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed industry (2.45%) [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.94 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 65.9 percentile since 2006 [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird, showing a slight improvement in profitability [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance of seed technology and ensuring the autonomy of seed sources during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed industry leaders [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends and developments [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for self-reliance in seed technology and control over seed sources, aiming to enhance the national seed industry [1] Group 1: Seed Industry Development - The meeting highlighted the acceleration of precise identification of germplasm resources and the promotion of germplasm improvement plans [1] - A "14th Five-Year" plan for modern seed industry enhancement will be developed to cultivate and promote urgently needed breakthrough varieties [1] - The establishment of a high-standard national seed production base is a priority [1] Group 2: Intellectual Property and Safety - There will be a strict protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry [1] - The meeting also stressed the importance of reinforcing agricultural biosecurity and technological safety measures to maintain the safety baseline of the seed industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of implementing the seed industry revitalization action plan to achieve high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on technological self-reliance and independent control of seed sources [1] Group 1 - The meeting highlights the need to enhance responsibility in implementing the seed industry revitalization action plan [1] - It calls for concentrated efforts to address challenges, fill gaps, strengthen advantages, and control risks in the seed industry [1] - The plan aims to accelerate the precise identification of germplasm resources and promote germplasm improvement programs [1] Group 2 - The Ministry plans to compile and implement the "14th Five-Year" modern seed industry enhancement engineering plan to cultivate urgently needed breakthrough varieties [1] - There is a focus on strengthening the cultivation of leading enterprises to enhance their innovative capabilities [1] - High-standard construction of national seed industry bases is emphasized to improve modernization levels [1] Group 3 - The meeting stresses the importance of comprehensive regulation of the entire variety chain and strict protection of seed industry intellectual property rights [1] - It also highlights the need to reinforce agricultural biosecurity and technological safety measures to maintain the safety baseline of the seed industry [1]

Core Insights - China is the world's second-largest seed demand country, but the trend of de-globalization is shifting global industrial chain layouts from "efficiency first" to "safety first," creating uncertainty in international trade [1][8] - The Chinese government places high importance on seed industry development, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in seed sources and technological independence [1][8] - Molecular breeding technology is seen as a key solution to address challenges in the seed industry and promote rural revitalization [1][8] Molecular Breeding Industry Overview - Molecular breeding, also known as gene engineering breeding, involves manipulating DNA at the molecular level to create new varieties with desired traits [2][3] - The industry is supported by various government policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan for Bioeconomic Development" and the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power" [9][10] Market Status - The market size of China's molecular breeding industry is projected to grow from 700 million yuan in 2020 to 3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.9% [11] - By 2024, molecular marker-assisted breeding is expected to dominate the market with a 70% share, followed by transgenic technology at 20% and gene editing technology at approximately 10% [11][12] Development Background - China's seed industry faces significant challenges, including reliance on foreign sources for high-end seed varieties and competition from multinational seed companies [7][8] - The government has intensified support for breeding work, focusing on developing original breeding technologies and improving research and commercialization integration [9][10] Future Trends - The molecular breeding industry is expected to reach a market size of 20 billion yuan by 2029, driven by advancements in gene editing and sequencing technologies [15][16] - The integration of molecular breeding with big data and artificial intelligence is anticipated to enhance breeding precision and efficiency [15][16]

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Plains Agricultural Valley Seed Industry Conference opened in Zhengzhou, focusing on seed industry innovation and development [2] - Key figures from the agricultural sector, including government officials and international experts, emphasized the importance of self-reliance in seed technology and the need for innovation in the industry [3][4] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The provincial government is committed to advancing seed industry revitalization as a key task, aligning with directives from President Xi Jinping regarding technological independence in seed sources [3] - The 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session has outlined a strategic plan for the next five years, emphasizing the implementation of seed industry revitalization actions [3][4] Group 2: Industry Development - The seed industry is described as the "chip" for ensuring national food security and supply of important agricultural products, with a focus on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality [4] - The Central Plains Agricultural Valley has made significant progress in seed resource protection and breeding, positioning itself as a major player in the seed innovation landscape [4][5] Group 3: International Collaboration - The International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants aims to contribute to China's seed industry self-reliance by promoting plant variety protection systems [5] - The conference featured the release of a new three-year action plan for the Central Plains Agricultural Valley and the signing of 12 major projects, indicating a collaborative effort in the seed industry [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of seed technology in ensuring national food security, highlighting the role of the Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City as a key agricultural innovation hub in China [1][2][4] Group 1: Agricultural Innovation and Research - Sanya serves as a significant base for southern hybrid breeding, with Yazhou Bay playing a crucial role in agricultural technology innovation [1] - The establishment of the Southern Breeding Valley has attracted major research institutions and universities, forming a multi-layered innovation organization system [2] - Since 2019, 401 graduate students have been trained in collaboration with local enterprises, and various research teams have been established to enhance agricultural research capabilities [2] Group 2: Land and Resource Management - Sanya has designated 100,000 acres as a protection zone and 15,000 acres as a core area for breeding, ensuring high-quality land for agricultural development [3] - The city has built the first national biological breeding zone, covering 5,040 acres, and has developed high-standard farmland across 115,200 acres [3] Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The article discusses the collaborative efforts between research institutions and enterprises to foster innovation, with 627 research projects and a total funding of 1.29 billion yuan [5] - Financial institutions are addressing the funding needs of the seed industry by introducing innovative financing solutions, such as plant variety rights pledge financing loans [7][8] - By mid-2025, the total loan balance for seed-related industries in Sanya reached 3.018 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.37% [8] Group 4: Global Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing - The establishment of the China-Latin America and Caribbean Sustainable Food Innovation Center and partnerships with international research organizations aim to enhance global collaboration in agricultural research [6] - The article highlights the importance of integrating various resources and expertise to tackle challenges in agricultural innovation and food security [5][6]