Report Overview - The report is titled "Fertilizer Costs Reshape Planting Structure: Is an Upturn in U.S. Soybean Acreage a Foregone Conclusion?" and is released by the Agricultural Products Group of the Institute with investment consulting business qualification [2][4] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict driving up fertilizer costs, especially nitrogen fertilizers, the cost of corn planting has risen significantly, and the loss pressure is much greater than that of soybeans. The market expects the U.S. soybean planting area to rebound to 85 - 86 million acres in 2026 (a 5% year - on - year increase), and the corn area to decrease accordingly. If the area meets expectations, U.S. soybeans may fluctuate between 1140 - 1180 cents per bushel in the short term, and after the report is released, attention can be paid to the medium - term buying opportunities supported by the cost increase [4] Summary by Directory Geopolitical Conflict Drives Up Fertilizer Costs - The new round of Middle East geopolitical conflict in late February 2026 led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, causing disruptions in oil transportation. Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, driving up the prices of chemicals, oilseeds, and related products. The increase in fuel prices has a cost - transmission effect throughout the agricultural industry chain. The conflict also affects global agricultural product pricing through the soaring fertilizer costs [5] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial in global fertilizer trade. About 35% of global urea exports and 45% of sulfur exports are transported through this route. The conflict has directly impacted fertilizer production and transportation in the region, leading to supply - chain tensions [5] - After the conflict, the CBOT urea futures price soared from $413 per ton at the end of February to $690 per ton in late March, a rise of over 65%, and the anhydrous ammonia price increased by about 20%. The Green Markets North American Fertilizer Price Index rose 22.57% from February 28 to March 20 [6] - The price - transmission path is: geopolitical conflict → fertilizer supply - chain interruption → soaring fertilizer prices → significant increase in corn and soybean planting costs → farmers adjust planting decisions, which is the core factor driving the change in the U.S. planting structure in 2026 [7] Fertilizer Costs Reshape the Soybean - Corn Planting Structure - Affected by the Iran war driving up fertilizer costs, U.S. farmers are expected to significantly adjust their planting structure in 2026. The soaring cost of corn planting will drive some farmland to switch to soybean planting. The market generally expects the U.S. soybean planting area to rebound to 85 - 86 million acres, a year - on - year increase of about 5%, and the corn area to decrease by about 4.5% [9] - In 2025, the estimated total cost of corn was $890 per acre, and that of soybeans was $658 per acre. In 2026, the USDA expects the per - acre production cost of all major crops to continue rising by 2.2% - 3.3%. The USDA estimates the corn planting cost to be $917 per acre, and farmers faced a potential loss of about $150 per acre even before the geopolitical conflict [9] - The absolute value of corn's operating cost is almost 1.8 times that of soybeans, mainly due to higher seed and fertilizer inputs. The proportion of fertilizer in U.S. corn planting costs is 16% - 24%, much higher than the less - than - 10% proportion in soybeans. The U.S. Soybean Association expects a loss of about $213 per acre for corn and about $139 per acre for soybeans in 2026 [10] - Corn is a typical "high - nitrogen crop" with high sensitivity to fertilizer price increases. Soybeans can fix nitrogen through root nodules and hardly need additional nitrogen fertilizers. The current soybean/corn price ratio is 2.54, indicating that soybeans are relatively more attractive. Corn faces more severe loss pressure, while soybeans are near the break - even line [11][12] Price Analysis - After the report is released, if the soybean planting area is within the expected range of 85 - 86 million acres, the market has already digested some sentiment and pricing. The short - term price of U.S. soybeans may fluctuate between 1140 - 1180 cents per bushel. If the area is higher than expected, the price may decline but the drop is limited due to cost support. If the area is less than 85 million acres, it is short - term positive for the U.S. soybean price, which may break through the 1200 - cent mark [13] - Attention should be paid to the resonance effect of biodiesel. Before the report is released, it is not recommended to take heavy unilateral positions. If the area falls within the 85 - 86 million - acre range, attention can be paid to the short - term buying opportunities after adjustment, as cost increase is an important factor supporting the medium - term price of U.S. soybeans [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The USDA area report for soybeans is bullish, and the futures market may rebound; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures market rebounds and fluctuates [1] - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean 2605: The closing price was 4,641 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan (+1.62%) during the day session and 4,639 yuan, up 27 yuan (+0.59%) during the night session [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2605: The closing price was 2,915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (-0.75%) during the day session and 2,913 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.21%) during the night session [1] - CBOT Soybean 05: The price was up 13.5 cents (+1.17%) to 1,172.25 cents/bushel [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 05: The price was 316.4 dollars/short ton, up 1.8 dollars (+0.57%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) was flat to -20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis was M2605 + 260/+270/+300, with prices ranging from 3,180 to 3,220 yuan/ton. For April 20 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for April 20 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 160; for May, it was M2605 + 100/+130/+160; for May - July, it was M2605 + 0/+20/+50; for August - September, it was M2609 - 30/-20/+0/+30/+60; for October - January, it was M2701 + 30/+40/+50/+70/+100 [1] - East China: The spot price of soybean meal was M2605 + 230, down 30 yuan compared to the previous day. For April 16 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - South China: The spot price of soybean meal ranged from 3,180 to 3,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan to flat compared to the previous day. For April 25 - May 10 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for April 16 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - Bayan: The price of soybeans was 4,680 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Trading Volume - The inventory of soybean meal was 63.1 million tons/week, compared to 64.18 million tons the previous week [1] - The trading volume of soybeans was 10.6 million tons/day, compared to 8.49 million tons the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] - In Brazil, soybean harvesting in some areas is nearly complete, and there has been rainfall in many areas this week. Although the recent rainfall has slowed the harvesting progress in northeastern Brazil, it has helped the late - growing soybean crops in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0 (referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic situation shows a mixed picture, with some indicators improving while others facing challenges. The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significant impacts on the global economy, trade, and financial markets. Central banks are implementing various monetary policies to maintain economic stability and promote growth [1][2][13] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong performance in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to international situation changes and crude oil import conditions [21] - The stock market is volatile, with different sectors showing different trends, and the public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [30][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 50.4%, up from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 50.1%, slightly down from the previous month [1] - In February 2026, social financing scale was 23855 billion yuan, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans were 9000 billion yuan. CPI was 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year [1] - In February 2026, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.8%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.8%. Exports and imports in February 2026 increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US, Iran are willing to end the war, but Iran requires guarantees. The Iran - US conflict may cause significant GDP losses in Arab countries, rising unemployment, and increased poverty [2] - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using various tools for monetary policy regulation, and maintaining financial market stability [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Goldman Sachs raised the Q2 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $3450 from $3200. On March 31, domestic tin and copper inventories reached new lows, while aluminum inventory reached a new high [4] - Three Middle - Eastern aluminum plants cut production by about 2.63 million tons. On March 31, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.11% to 1047.28 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - March, the price of rebar increased by 0.83% month - on - month to 3189.1 yuan/ton, the price of coke decreased by 2.08% month - on - month to 1346.4 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 1420.7 yuan/ton [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - US API crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels last week, causing oil prices to fall. Sadara Chemical Company temporarily shut down due to supply chain disruptions. Iran's oil discount has narrowed, and the average selling price has risen. The US Treasury Secretary said the oil market has a daily supply shortage of 10 - 12 million barrels [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - March, the prices of soybean meal, soybeans, and cotton increased by 6.82%, 2.98%, and 2.15% month - on - month respectively, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Important News - The US and Iran are willing to end the war, but there is no formal negotiation yet. Iran listed 18 US ICT and AI - related companies as "legitimate targets" [11][12] - China's economic sentiment improved in March, with manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returning to the expansion range [14] - From January to February, state - owned enterprises' total operating income increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 2% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of February was 65.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year [15] - A number of national regulations will be implemented in April. The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for key - term, short - term, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds in Q2 2026 [15][16] - In February, government bond net financing decreased by 292.53 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate bond net financing decreased by 18.02 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, the bond market custody balance was 198.9 trillion yuan, with foreign institutions holding 3.4 trillion yuan [16] - New special bonds issuance accelerated in Q1 2026, reaching 1.1599 trillion yuan, a 21% increase from the same period in 2025 [17] - The trading association supported 370+ enterprises to issue 1.06 trillion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. New bond indexes will be launched on April 1 [17][18] - Global central banks are selling US Treasury bonds at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The market trading logic has shifted from inflation trading to recession trading [18] - Some bond - related events include bond redemption options, asset transfers, and rating changes [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. Treasury bond futures mostly strengthened. The inter - bank market liquidity was very loose [20][21] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index and related indexes also showed different trends [21][22] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, and the yields of some domestic and foreign bonds also changed [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 49 basis points at the 16:30 close. The US dollar index fell 0.62%, and most non - US currencies rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that accelerating the revitalization of existing assets helps local platforms transform and serve economic growth. The acceleration of government debt clearance for enterprises is expected to repair the balance sheets and valuations of industries such as construction [27][28] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the "South - bound Bond Connect" meets the needs of institutional diversification, and the Hong Kong bond market may expand, providing more choices for global asset allocation [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market declined, with some sectors rising and some falling. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising slightly and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [30][31] - The public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [31] 3.5 Today's Reminder - On April 1, 132 bonds were listed, 120 bonds were issued, 55 bonds were due for payment, and 173 bonds paid principal and interest [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Northeast soybean spot prices are weak, with more market circulation and sparse trading, but the state - reserve auction provides price reference and bottom support, and short - term prices are expected to be in shock adjustment with obvious bottom support [1] - Shandong corn prices rose slightly, while Northeast corn continued to decline weakly. There is a certain price correction pressure in the spot market, and short - term prices may be adjusted, but the downward space is limited [1] - The egg market is entering the off - season, with stable supply due to high laying rates and high inventory. Near - month contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and far - month contracts may fall if the chicken culling is not as expected [2] - The state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage, but short - term supply pressure remains high. The supply of live pigs will be in excess from March to May, and there is an expectation of a price rebound at the end of the third quarter, but near - month pressure is huge [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are weak, with more market circulation and sparse trading. The state - reserve auction at 4500 yuan/ton last Thursday had a transaction rate of over 60%, providing price reference and bottom support. Short - term prices are expected to be in shock adjustment [1] Corn - Shandong corn prices rose slightly, and Northeast corn continued to decline weakly. There was a high volume of corn in North China last weekend to this week, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises gradually accumulated. Today, the arrival volume decreased, and the price decline slowed down. In the Northeast, the sales of ground - stored grain are coming to an end, and the supply has increased recently. Spot prices have correction pressure, and short - term prices may be adjusted, but the downward space is limited [1] Egg - The egg market is entering the off - season. The current laying rate is about 92.71%, and it is expected to remain stable. The inventory is high, and the supply pressure persists. After the sharp rise in futures last week, there has been a continuous adjustment in the past two days, and the price difference between futures and spot is narrowing. Near - month contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and far - month contracts may fall if the chicken culling is not as expected [2] Pig - The state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage to promote price stability. However, short - term supply pressure remains high. The supply of live pigs will be in excess from March to May due to the high inventory of sows in the second quarter of last year. There is an expectation of a price rebound at the end of the third quarter, but near - month pressure is huge, and both near - and far - month contracts are in a deep adjustment period [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Corn futures' main contract 2605 saw short - sellers reducing positions during price decline, providing short - term support. Northeast and North China corn prices were weak over the weekend, with increased supply. Southern market prices rose, but wheat auctions and substitution reduced corn demand. The futures' main contract faces upward pressure, and short - selling is recommended [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were almost flat on Monday, adjusting positions ahead of reports. US soybean acreage is expected to increase to 85.549 million acres, and inventory to 2.063 billion bushels, both negative factors. Domestic protein meal trended higher with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Pig prices fell, reducing soybean meal consumption, and short - term trading is advised [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - BMD palm oil rose due to Indonesia's B50 plan and rising crude oil. High - frequency data showed a 38.4% - 50.6% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25. Domestic oil markets followed suit, with palm oil stronger than soybean and rapeseed oil. Short - term long - positions are recommended [1]. Eggs - The main egg futures contract 2605回调 after reaching the upper limit of the shock range, with a daily decline of 1.4%. Spot prices fell slightly. Supply pressure remains, but cost support raises the bottom of futures prices. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to inventory data and surrounding commodity prices [2]. Pigs - The main pig futures contract 2605 oscillated at a low level, rising 0.4% daily. Spot prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and prices are likely to remain weak. Attention should be paid to feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Military actions against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East. China's M2 balance at the end of February was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year. China will strengthen market supervision. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased, and the price increase lacks fundamental support. The US allows the purchase of Russian oil, and China will release fertilizer reserves. Fertilizer and energy prices have risen due to the conflict, and Iraq plans to resume oil exports [3][4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but specific spreads and basis values are not described in detail [5][8][10][13]

Agriculture at its best. March, 2026 Agenda 1. Market Overview/ 25/26 Crop Year 2. M&As 3. Net Debt 4. Financial Performance 5. Land and NAV 6. Strategy and Capital allocation 7. Innovation & Technology 8. ESG Market overview 2025/26 Crop Year Market overview Precipitation forecast Source: CPC NOAA | Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error Market Overview Soybean Price World supply & demand (million tons) (USD/Buschel) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 11.59 -18.6 360.0 341.4 2019/20 (CBO ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean balance sheet for the 25/26 season is loose, with Brazil's record - high production and the highest - ever global soybean ending stocks. Future focus is on Brazil's export progress and Argentina's production adjustment [52]. - For the 25/26 US balance sheet, demand, especially export demand, is the key. Attention should be paid to whether China will increase its purchase of US soybeans during Trump's visit to China in mid - May [52]. - In the 26/27 US season, farmers are likely to expand soybean planting due to better planting returns and rising fertilizer prices. El Niño during the growing season may lead to high yields. First, focus on the planting area on March 31, then on the weather and crop growth in US soybean - producing areas [52]. - If there are no major market - moving factors during the US soybean growing season, the far - month futures price of soybean meal may remain in a low - level oscillation. In April, there are still factors to be watched, and in May, the domestic market will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period with the weakest basis for soybean meal [52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Balance Sheet - **25/26 Season**: The US biofuel policy is in line with expectations, but export performance is weak. The focus is on China's purchase of US soybeans [2]. - **26/27 Season**: Spring sowing is about to start, and the market's focus is shifting to new crops. The soybean - to - corn price ratio in February is favorable for increasing soybean planting area, and the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates an increase of 3.9 million acres to 85 million acres. Analysts expect 85.55 million acres, but the actual situation may be affected by the Middle - East conflict [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The report provides detailed data on planting area, harvest area, yield, inventory, and demand from 2021/22 to 2026/27, showing changes in the US soybean supply - demand balance [3]. - **Pressing Demand**: Since February, CBOT soybean oil has been rising, and the domestic US soybean spot crushing margin has reached near - record highs. NOPA members' cumulative soybean crushing from September 2025 to February 2026 increased by 12.25% year - on - year, and the USDA predicts a 5.3% increase in 25/26 [9]. - **Export Situation**: As of March 19, the cumulative export orders for the 25/26 season decreased by 18.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative export shipments decreased by 27.1%. Orders and shipments to China decreased significantly. China's actual purchase of US soybeans has not increased as expected, and the competitiveness of US soybeans is weak during the Brazilian soybean harvest and export period [13]. South American Situation - **Brazil**: As of March 28, the harvest was 74.3% complete, behind last year but ahead of the five - year average. ANEC predicts March exports to exceed 1.6 billion tons [32]. - **Argentina**: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the USDA maintain their production estimates at 48.5 million tons and 48 million tons respectively [32]. - **Global Impact**: With South American bumper harvests, the global soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are at a record high, and the balance sheet is loose. If the US increases planting area and achieves high yields in 2026, international soybean prices are unlikely to rise significantly [32]. China's Situation - **Import Cost**: After the Middle - East conflict, shipping costs increased, driving up the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans. Although shipping costs have recently declined, they may remain high, providing some support for soybean meal futures prices [35]. - **Import Supply**: In January and February, China imported 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons of soybeans respectively. Forecasts for April - June arrivals are 7.93 million, 11.5 million, and 11 million tons. Due to strict inspection and quarantine of Brazilian soybeans, low seasonal arrivals, and oil - mill shutdown plans, soybean meal spot prices, the May contract, and the May - September spread strengthened, but then declined after the relaxation of quarantine standards [38][42]. - **Demand**: The slow reduction of pig production capacity ensures soybean meal feed demand. The relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing have increased rapeseed meal inventory, reducing the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal compared to rapeseed meal. Feed enterprises stocked up in advance, and the apparent demand for soybean meal in the first quarter of 2026 increased by about 11.3% year - on - year [46]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the oil - mill soybean inventory decreased to 4.82 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory increased to 676,800 tons. The sum of soybean - converted meal and soybean meal inventory is at a record high for the same period [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - South American selling pressure continues to be released, and there is still downward pressure on soybean meal in the short term. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is relatively low. It is recommended to wait for the correction to layout long positions for far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet. In April, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory, and the 165 - 119 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is 383, in Tianjin is 323, in Zhangjiagang is 303, in Dongguan is 323 (down 20), in Zhanjiang is 263 (down 50), and in Fangcheng is 303. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 5 (up 24). The M5 - 9 spread is - 66 (up 20), and the RM5 - 9 spread is - 59 (up 29) [4] Spread and Other Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 617, and the spread of the main contract is - 20. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 274.00, with a change of - 4 [5] Inventory Data - Inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean压榨量 of national major oil mills are presented, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] Downstream Data - Downstream data shows the situation from 2019 - 2026 [6] International Situation - As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has decreased recently. For US soybeans, pay attention to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of March. Brazilian shipping has resumed, concerns about delayed domestic arrivals have been alleviated, the supply of oil mills has recovered, and domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in April [6]