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未来几年,在大城市打拼的人,“租房住”将成为新常态
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 14:55
Core Viewpoint - Renting has transitioned from a temporary choice for young people to a mainstream lifestyle in major cities, reflecting a significant shift in China's housing landscape from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" [1][3] Group 1: New Living Choices in Major Cities - The rental population in the four first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) has surpassed 50%, marking the arrival of the "half-city rental" era [3] - Urbanization is accelerating, with the urban resident population reaching 930 million and rental population nearing 260 million, expected to grow to 350 million by 2030 [3] - The ability to settle in cities at reasonable costs is crucial for attracting and retaining talent, making renting a key factor in urban competitiveness [3] Group 2: Changing Perspectives on Housing - The traditional view of "owning a home means having a family" is shifting, with younger generations prioritizing quality of life and career development over mortgage commitments [4] - High housing prices have led to the emergence of a "rental generation," with the average price-to-income ratio in Beijing exceeding 30:1 [4] - Over half of renters are open to long-term rentals, with nearly 20% willing to rent for over ten years, indicating a growing acceptance of long-term leasing [4] Group 3: Market Structure and Supply Diversity - The rental market is experiencing structural changes, with a diverse supply system emerging, including personal landlords, institutional operators, and affordable rental housing [5][6] - The market is evolving from traditional rentals to include various types such as affordable housing, long-term apartments, serviced apartments, and high-end apartments [6] Group 4: Economic Rationality in Renting - A significant portion of working individuals (nearly 80%) are willing to pay rent that is 20% or less of their monthly income, reflecting a rational approach to rental costs [8] - The trend of sharing brokerage fees between landlords and tenants is becoming mainstream, enhancing rental flexibility and reducing commuting costs [8] Group 5: Policy Support and Legal Framework - The introduction of the "Housing Rental Regulations" in July 2023 provides a clear legal framework for rental activities, enhancing market stability [9][10] - Financial support for the rental market is increasing, with the issuance of REITs expected to exceed 25 billion yuan, providing stable funding for the rental sector [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The rental housing market is projected to grow from 5.2 trillion yuan in 2025 to 8.8 trillion yuan by 2030, with state-owned rental companies expected to capture 25% of the market share [13] - The shift towards a long-term rental era is transforming the rental experience, with digitalization expected to enhance convenience and security in the rental process [12]