Core Insights - The Dallas Federal Reserve's report indicates that a significant reduction in immigration across the southern border, coupled with the Trump administration's intensified deportation efforts, could lead to a decrease of approximately 0.8 percentage points in the U.S. GDP growth rate by 2025 [1] Economic Impact - The primary factor contributing to the anticipated GDP decline is the reduction in cross-border migration rather than deportations, accounting for 93% of the expected GDP drop [1] - In a scenario of "mass deportation," where 1 million individuals are removed annually until the end of 2027, the annual GDP growth rate could decrease by nearly 0.9 percentage points by the end of 2025 and by 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2027 [1] Research Limitations - Researchers acknowledge that their findings are "highly uncertain" due to the limited historical data available [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the labor market appears to remain stable, suggesting resilience in employment conditions [1] - Immigration restrictions may become a medium-term obstacle to economic growth, highlighting potential challenges for the labor market and overall economic expansion [1]