Workflow
经济增长
icon
Search documents
东莞上半年镇街经济“放榜”,有喜有忧|东莞一周
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-24 09:36
08.18—08.24 【东莞一周】 精选原创新闻合集 1 有喜有忧!东莞镇街2025上半年经济"成绩单"陆续公布 采写:南都N视频记者莫晓东 整合:南都N视频记者黄嘉丰 唐国轩 莫晓东 黄芳芳 继2025年东莞经济"半年报"出炉后,镇街上半年的经济"成绩单"也陆续公布。 截至8月20日,东莞已有20个镇街相继公布上半年主要经济数据,13个镇街暂未公布GDP或增速。今年 上半年,大部分镇街的消费市场持续走强,进出口贸易活跃,固定投资增速放缓,拉动经济增长的"三 驾马车"有喜有忧。 上半年,东莞各镇街有力有效延续了去年以来经济增长逐步回升的态势。进入下半年,经济高质量发展 的驱动引擎将精准发力,稳外贸、促消费、强投资、谋增量,全力以赴完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务。 2 东莞拟进行中考改革,总分680分,生物地理成绩不计入总分 南都N视频记者 黄慧萍 8月20日,东莞市教育局官网发布关于公开征求《东莞市教育局关于深化高中阶段学校考试招生制度改 革实施意见(征求意见稿)》意见的公告。根据征求意见稿,东莞拟进行中考改革,中考总分由800分 调整为680分,生物地理成绩不计入中考录取总分。需要指出的是,该意见自202 ...
差距拉大!2025年,中国GDP将突破20万亿美元,美国可超过30万亿
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:28
Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2025, supported by a stable economic growth rate of at least 5% [1][3] - In 2024, China's GDP is estimated at $18.94 trillion, with the first half contributing $8.68 trillion, accounting for 45.83% of the total [3] Trade and Surplus - China's trade surplus for the first seven months reached $683.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, marking the highest level for the same period [3] - The trade surplus is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion in 2025, providing strong support for economic growth [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months, but fixed asset investment growth was only 1.6% due to weak real estate and private investment [4] - The uneven development across industries is a core reason for the moderate economic growth rate of around 5% [6] Structural Challenges - The transition from old to new economic drivers is incomplete, with traditional growth engines losing momentum [6] - There is a need for precise macroeconomic regulation and deeper reforms to stimulate private investment and stabilize the real estate market [6] Future Economic Landscape - By 2025, both China and the U.S. are expected to achieve significant GDP milestones, with the U.S. projected to reach $30.04 trillion [8][10] - The economic growth of both countries will have systemic impacts on global trade, investment, and market confidence [10] Quality of Growth - The focus is shifting towards achieving balanced, efficient, and sustainable development, emphasizing the quality of growth alongside quantity [10] - China's economic transformation is aimed at enhancing the quality of life for its citizens while navigating various challenges [10]
今年1-7月吉经济增长11.5%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-23 16:53
(原标题:今年1-7月吉经济增长11.5%) 据吉尔吉斯斯坦国家统计委发布数据,2025年1-7月,吉GDP同比增长11.5%。其中,工业增长 11.3%,建筑业增长37.8%,农业增长2.3%,批发零售业增长13.2%。1-6月,吉进出口总额70亿美元, 同比下降12.4%,其中出口减少26.3%,进口减少9.4%。 ...
鲍威尔宣布!美联储降息新消息!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 00:16
当地时间8月22日, 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示,当前形势暗示就业增长面临 下行风险,风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策。鲍威尔称,美联储对降息持开放态度。 在政策立场上,鲍威尔称,美联储利率水平已较去年更接近"中性",未来将谨慎评估风险,确保不会让 一次性物价上涨演变成长期通胀问题。 他重申,美联储将始终在实现最大就业和物价稳定的双重使命 间保持平衡。同时,鲍威尔提到,过去五年高通胀的经历表明,美联储必须坚定维护2%的通胀目标, 以保持长期预期稳定。 当天,美联储还发布了修订后的《长期目标与货币政策战略声明》。修订要点包括取消"平均通胀目标 制",回归灵活通胀目标等。 来源:央视新闻客户端 监制:曹红艳审核:杜秀萍 编辑:张萌 校对:刘莉 鲍威尔指出,美国经济在高关税与收紧移民政策背景下仍展现韧性,但劳动力市场与经济增长已出现显 著放缓。他强调,在政策维持紧缩的背景下,经济前景及风险变化或需调整政策立场。 鲍威尔在讲话中暗示尽管当前通胀上行风险依然存在,但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。 在通胀方面,鲍威尔指出关税已推高部分商品价格,7月核心PCE物价同比上涨2.9%。他强调,关税效 应可能是 ...
大摩邢自强最新研判:出口消费承压下市场仍活跃,杠杆可控 + 资金入市成核心底气
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 16:57
2025 年 8 月 21 日,摩根士丹利邢自强团队发布最新研究报告《中国情绪追踪:亚太增长放缓,政策持 续发力,市场保持活跃》。报告指出,8 月中国经济增长虽呈放缓态势,但充裕的流动性与 "稳节奏、 偏积极" 的政策发力,仍支撑市场情绪维持乐观。当前市场杠杆水平尚属合理,暂未出现触发股市即时 限制的明显因素,后续需重点关注资金流动、杠杆变化及市场叙事的潜在转向。 一、经济增长观察:三季度同比或滑向4.5% 从 8 月经济数据表现来看,多项指标显示增长动能有所减弱,摩根士丹利预测三季度经济同比增速或降 至 - 4.5%,具体呈现以下特征: 1. 出口增速回落,前置效应逐步回调 受高基数效应与前期出口 "前置" 需求回调影响,8 月中国出口同比增速预计从 7 月的 7.2% 放缓至 5%-6%。这一趋势可从 "中国至美集装箱船数量" 得到印证 ——8 月以来,驶往美国的集装箱船数量明 显减少,直观反映出前期出口前置后的需求回落(见插图 1)。 3. 基建投资小幅回升,但可持续性存疑 受益于天气干扰减少及前期政府债券前置发行资金的拨付,8 月基建资本支出(capex)同比或小幅回 升,水泥周发货量数据也印证了基建 ...
新华社丨我国月度用电量首破万亿大关
国家能源局· 2025-08-22 12:17
长期以来,工业是用电的"压舱石"。在全社会用电量中占比近六成的第二产业用电也保持向上势头,增速连续两个月回 升。1至7月,第二产业用电量3.74万亿千瓦时,同比增长2.8%。7月当月,第二产业用电量5936亿千瓦时,同比增长 4.7%。其中,高技术及装备制造业用电量增速领先。 中国电力企业联合会(以下简称"中电联")统计与数智部副主任蒋德斌介绍说,1至7月,高技术及装备制造业合计用电量 同比增长4.6%,增速高于同期制造业平均增长水平2.3个百分点。其中,新能源整车制造业继续保持高速增长,用电量同 比增长25.7%。 透过用电量可见,经济发展不断"攀高"的同时,含"新"量也在不断提升。 1至7月,第三产业用电量1.13万亿千瓦时,同比增长7.8%。7月当月,第三产业用电量2081亿千瓦时,同比增长 10.7%,增速比上月提高1.7个百分点。 其中,在移动互联网、大数据、云计算等快速发展带动下,1至7月互联网和相关服务业用电量同比增长28.2%。同期,批 发和零售业用电量同比增长12.0%,其中,由于电动汽车高速发展,充换电服务业用电量同比增长42.6%。 中电联表示,考虑到三季度高温因素及上年四季度基数偏低因 ...
有喜有忧!东莞镇街2025上半年经济“成绩单”陆续公布
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-21 10:21
继2025年东莞经济"半年报"出炉后,镇街上半年的经济"成绩单"也陆续公布。 截至8月20日,东莞已有20个镇街相继公布上半年主要经济数据,13个镇街暂未公布GDP或增速。今年 上半年,大部分镇街的消费市场持续走强,进出口贸易活跃,固定投资增速放缓,拉动经济增长的"三 驾马车"有喜有忧。 上半年,东莞各镇街有力有效延续了去年以来经济增长逐步回升的态势。进入下半年,经济高质量发展 的驱动引擎将精准发力,稳外贸、促消费、强投资、谋增量,全力以赴完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务。 20个镇街相继公布主要经济数据 东坑、谢岗、高埗GDP增速位居前三 7月24日,2025上半年东莞经济运行情况对外发布。全市地区生产总值(GDP)达6067.84亿元,同比增 长4.8%,比全省高0.6个百分点。 南都N视频记者梳理发现,截至8月20日,东莞已有20个镇街相继公布主要经济数据。其中,19个镇街 公布了今年上半年GDP或增速,13个镇街未公布GDP或增速。 已公布的镇街:虎门 高埗 石龙 寮步 茶山 东坑 黄江 道滘 望牛墩 洪梅 中堂 常平 谢岗 企石 石排 塘厦 清 溪 凤岗 樟木头 未公布的镇街:东城 南城 莞城 万江 ...
马来西亚二季度经济增长稳健
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-20 23:11
Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, maintaining a steady growth trend despite a complex external environment, slightly below the earlier forecast of 4.5% but above market expectations of 4.3% [1] - Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the 0.7% growth in Q1, indicating economic resilience [1] Domestic Demand - Strong domestic demand was a key driver of economic growth, with household consumption rising by 5.3% year-on-year and public consumption increasing by 6.4% in Q2 [1] - Government policies, such as raising minimum wages and adjusting civil servant salaries, enhanced consumer purchasing power, contributing to a thriving consumption market [1] - Private and public investments grew by 10.2% and 6.8%, respectively, further supporting economic expansion [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by active performance in wholesale and retail, as well as food and beverage sub-sectors [2] - Manufacturing sector growth slowed but still achieved a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with electrical, electronic, and optical products showing sustained growth [2] - Agriculture and construction sectors also reported growth rates of 2.1% and 12.1%, respectively [2] Labor Market - Total employment in Malaysia increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 16.86 million, with an unemployment rate stable at 3%, down 5.7% from the previous year [2] - Labor force participation rate rose to 70.8%, indicating a robust labor market that supports household consumption and sustainable economic growth [2] Trade Performance - Despite challenges, Malaysia's trade performance showed some highlights, with a significant 72.6% drop in net exports due to reduced commodity exports, particularly in mining [2] - Strong performance in electrical and electronic product exports partially offset the overall decline in exports [2] - Malaysia's important position in regional supply chains and trade cooperation with other countries provided some buffer against export market pressures [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Malaysia's inflation remained moderate in Q2, with the overall inflation rate decreasing from 1.5% in Q1 to 1.3%, and core inflation holding steady at 1.8% [3] - The decline in fuel prices and a slowdown in food price increases were the main reasons for the drop in inflation rates, providing stability for consumer purchasing power and room for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank expects overall inflation to remain moderate, ranging between 1.5% and 2.3% for the year [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Malaysia's economy may face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential further slowdown in exports [3] - However, continued domestic demand growth and stable investment activities are expected to provide some support for the economy [3] - The recovery of the tourism sector and the advancement of infrastructure projects are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy [3]
2025年8月第3周:债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:集运运价指数跌势放缓
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 14:46
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Economic growth shows a slowdown in the decline of container shipping freight rate indices, with power plant daily consumption falling from a high level, and demand - side indicators showing mixed trends [1][4]. - Inflation presents a situation where pork prices are slowly falling at a low level, and there are fluctuations in CPI and PPI components [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Falls from a High Level - Power plant daily consumption has declined. On August 19, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 912,000 tons, a 4.5% drop from August 12. On August 14, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.369 million tons, a 5.3% drop from August 6 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rates fluctuated slightly. On August 15, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 8, while the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.2 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 92.6% [4][17]. - Tire operating rates were weakly stable. On August 14, the operating rate of truck - used all - steel tires was 63.1%, up 2.1 percentage points from August 7, and that of car - used semi - steel tires was 72.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [4][19]. 1.2 Demand: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices - The decline in the month - on - month sales of new homes in 30 cities slowed down. From August 1 to 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 179,000 square meters, down 6.1% from July, 15.0% from August last year, and 32.4% from August 2023 [4][24]. - The retail sales of the auto market are gradually picking up. In August, retail sales increased by 2% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year [4][27]. - Steel prices generally fell. On August 19, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to August 12 [4][32]. - Cement prices generally rebounded. On August 19, the national cement price index rose 1.4% from August 12, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [4][33]. - Glass prices stopped falling and rebounded. On August 19, the active glass futures contract price was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 13.9% from August 12 [4][37]. - The decline of container shipping freight rate indices slowed down. On August 15, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% from August 8, and the SCFI index decreased by 2.0% [4][40]. 2. Inflation: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level - Pork prices are slowly falling at a low level. On August 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.2% drop from August 12 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is slowly rising. On August 19, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.8% from August 12, with different fluctuations in various varieties [4][51]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Fluctuation of Oil Prices - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. On August 19, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $67.6 and $62.4 per barrel respectively, down 0.01% and 1.3% from August 12 [4][54]. - Copper and aluminum prices declined. On August 19, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.2% and 1.4% respectively compared to August 12 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed. On August 19, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.5% from August 12, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% from August 11 [4][58].
大跌!日本突发,日股跳水!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-20 02:53
Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July [1][3][5]. Trade Data Summary - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [3]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately $795.5 million) instead of a forecasted surplus [3]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [3]. - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [3][5]. - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. fell by 23.9% to 585.1 billion yen, continuing a three-month decline [3]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market saw a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [4]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% this year, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of December [4]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the rate of decline increasing [5]. - The automotive sector, a core industry for Japan, has been significantly affected, with a reported 26.7% year-on-year decrease in automobile exports to the U.S. in June [5]. - The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP for Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, but cautioned about the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on future economic performance [5]. Economic Forecast - A survey of ten private economists indicated that six expect Japan's economy to enter negative growth in Q3, with an anticipated 0.1% decline in actual GDP quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decrease of 0.6% [6]. - A recent trade agreement announced by U.S. President Trump may provide some relief, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S., which is expected to create numerous jobs [6].