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程实︱国际资本配置与产业布局的底层逻辑:物以稀为贵
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 12:42
Group 1: Core Economic Insights - China's economy is transitioning from being merely a large-scale manufacturer to becoming a key player in the global value chain due to its unique and scarce attributes [1] - The scarcity attributes are highlighted in three dimensions: the irreplaceability of resource scarcity, systemic production capacity with scale effects and technological integration, and the certainty dividends brought by policy stability [1][4] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry, with approximately 38% of global reserves and 68% of global production, along with 85% of refining capabilities [2] - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow due to their critical role in high-performance permanent magnets used in wind power, electric vehicles, and energy storage devices [2] Group 3: Systemic Manufacturing Capacity - Systemic scarcity in high-end manufacturing refers to the ability to provide large-scale manufacturing, complete industrial chain support, advanced technology integration, and high-efficiency organization [7] - China has a complete industrial system in high-tech fields such as new energy batteries, high-speed rail equipment, and industrial robots, with a projected 70% market share in global power batteries by 2024 [8] Group 4: Cost Control and Supply Chain Stability - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown relatively stable fluctuations compared to major economies in Europe and the U.S., indicating advantages in production cost control and supply flexibility [11] - This stable pricing environment enhances China's attractiveness and stability as a global manufacturing hub [11] Group 5: Governance and Policy Supply - In the context of global governance challenges, China's ability to provide stable and predictable policy frameworks is becoming a core variable for long-term competitiveness [14] - Recent policy changes, such as reducing the negative list for foreign market access from 117 to 106 items, reflect China's commitment to creating a more favorable environment for foreign investment [14] Group 6: Macroeconomic Policy Stability - China's macroeconomic policy volatility is significantly lower than that of major developed economies, showcasing strong policy consistency and foresight [17] - The lower economic policy uncertainty index in China compared to the U.S. highlights its ability to quickly form policy coalitions and provide stable development expectations [17]