Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [7][10]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices of potassium fertilizer and glyphosate, with supply constraints for the insecticide "Kangkuan" [2][5]. - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by tight supply and demand, with a significant reliance on imports, which is projected to increase due to food security concerns [2][27]. - The phosphoric chemical sector is anticipated to maintain high price levels due to the scarcity of phosphate rock resources and increasing demand from new applications [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Global potassium fertilizer prices are expected to recover as demand increases, with China being the largest consumer and heavily reliant on imports [2][27]. - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a historical high [27]. - The domestic potassium chloride price is forecasted to rise by approximately 100 yuan/ton in July due to increased port prices [2][45]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a tight supply-demand balance [3][51]. - As of June 30, 2025, the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [3][51]. - The export policy for phosphoric fertilizers emphasizes domestic priority, with reduced export quotas expected to alleviate downward pressure in the domestic market [4]. Pesticides - The supply of "Kangkuan" has been unexpectedly restricted, leading to a potential price increase for the product [5]. - Glyphosate prices have risen by 1,300 yuan/ton in June, driven by increased demand from South America as planting areas for soybeans and corn expand [5][9]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the glyphosate sector, such as "Xingfa Group," which has a significant production capacity [9]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Yaji International" for potassium fertilizer, projecting production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][49]. - For phosphoric chemicals, "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group" are highlighted as key players due to their rich phosphate reserves [6]. - In the pesticide sector, "Xingfa Group" is recommended for its leading position in glyphosate production [9].

中长期来看，中国经济或将不再仅仅凭借其体量规模赢得全球关注，也将凭借这些难以复制的稀缺属性， 成为全球价值链重塑中的关键支点。 与传统的世界工厂定位不同，中国经济的比较优势逐渐体现为稀缺属性的提供者。在当前全球产业重构与 地缘经济深度调整的背景下，这种稀缺属性主要体现在三个维度：一是资源稀缺的不可替代性，尤其在稀 土等关键矿产领域；二是具备规模效应、技术融合与配套能力的系统性产能；三是政策稳定性所带来的确 定性红利。中长期来看，中国经济或将不再仅仅凭借其体量规模赢得全球关注，也将凭借这些难以复制的 稀缺属性，成为全球价值链重塑中的关键支点。物以稀为贵，不仅是市场规律的体现，也将演变为国际资 本配置与产业布局的底层逻辑。 然而，稀土并非在所有地区均有广泛分布，其开采和冶炼还受到生态环境、技术能力与成本结构的多重制 约。以重稀土为例，镝、铽等元素多集中于离子型黏土矿，分布高度集中于中国南方。尽管其他国家也具 备一定储量，但提取成本高且在冶炼分离过程中易产生污染、高能耗等问题，导致开采、提炼运营效率低 下。因此，即使在资源发现或资本投入层面有所突破，缺乏产业一体化能力和成本控制能力仍难以形成对 中国供应链的实质性挑 ...

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