在"全国一盘棋"的统一战略下，深入各地规划细则，一幅基于资源禀赋、产业基础和区位优势的差异化 发展图景清晰可见。 北京商报记者丨和岳 2025年，新质生产力推动新动能积聚，传统产业数字化、绿色化转型加速，战略性新兴产业和未来产业 成为增长引擎。当"十四五"圆满收官，"十五五"启新在即，一场关乎中国经济未来形态的深刻变革，正 在全国20余个省份的区域发展蓝图上清晰展开。 新质生产力，这个融合了科技创新、产业升级和绿色转型的先进生产力质态，正成为各地摆脱传统路径 依赖、塑造未来竞争新优势的核心抓手。 在"全国一盘棋"的战略统筹下，各省份正基于自身资源禀赋与产业基础，展开一场关于未来发展的差异 化竞逐，共同致力于打通从科技强到产业强、经济强的转化通道，为中国经济高质量发展锻造更为强 劲、更可持续的核心引擎。 全国一盘棋： 从同频共振到核心抓手 新质生产力已成为各地推动经济转型升级的必答题，从中央顶层设计到地方具体实践，新质生产力已成 为20余省份破解发展瓶颈、抢占未来先机的核心抓手。各地普遍形成共识：新质生产力以科技创新为核 心驱动力，以现代化产业体系为载体，是推动经济提质增效、实现高质量发展的关键路径，其培育发展 ...

可谁能想到，海关数据一公布，不仅没有断供，反而出现了"井喷"。2025年11月，中国对日本的稀土磁 铁出口量竟然飙升到了304吨。 新年刚刚开始，日本传来3个重要消息，非常引人关注，转过年来，日本将走向何方呢？ 很明显，高市早苗有点慌了，我们大胆预测，今年她要下台了，为什么这么说呢？ 首先让人看不懂的，是一组完全反常的数据。 整个国际市场原本都在屏住呼吸，等着看中国对日本祭出"稀土制裁"的杀招，毕竟高市早苗去年11月7 日那番极具挑衅的言论言犹在耳。 这个数字意味着什么？不仅比10月份暴涨了34.7%，甚至直接创下了全年的最高纪录。 这种时候，一定有人会觉得脑子转不过弯来：这不是在"资敌"吗？哪怕是看一眼同期的数据，中国对美 国的稀土出口可是实打实下降了11.4%。 一升一降之间，难道是我们把货卖给日本，让日本人转手去填美国的窟窿？或者是因为不敢得罪日本而 故意放水？ 如果你这么想，那就太天真了。这背后恰恰是一场最高级别的心理博弈和战略绞索。 真相往往隐藏在反直觉的表象之下。中国对日本的策略，从来不是只有"断供"这一张牌，还有一种更为 窒息的打法叫"温水煮青蛙"。 没错，我们确实还在卖，但这只局限于民用的轻稀 ...

这两天，美国又在蠢蠢欲动，一副想和我国重新打贸易战的架势。 具体来说，美国贸易代表办公室发布针对中国半导体政策301调查结果，宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税，目前税率为0％，18个月后，即2027年6 月再提高税率。 因为按照美国政府官员与市场人士的信息显示，尽管中国增加对美稀土成品供应，但是依旧在限制对美出口华盛顿所需用于建立永磁体及其他产品本土生 产的稀土元素。美国生产商没有获得自行生产稀土成品的必要组件，特别是无法获得金属镝或其氧化物。 这说明什么？我国稀土管制非但没有松绑，反而对金属镝这类核心稀土原料掐住了供应咽喉，美国想对我国下手，得掂量掂量自身的稀土供应链能不能摆 脱中国。 这就是为什么美国国务卿卢比奥在年终记者会上，向我国示好，表示，"将美国意图与北京的长期稳定竞争，当成可以无限升高对抗的通行证，是一种战 略错觉。华府今天最担心的，不是第一岛链各国各地区不够对中强硬，而是会不会被拖进一场谁都不想要的对撞。" 可以说，美国已经预定2027年6月就要对我国半导体出口下手，这相当于赤裸裸的威胁和打压。 对此，我商务部发言人何咏前正式向美国发出严重警告，敦促美国尽快纠正错误做法，不要损人不利己， ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is responding to China's long-term export licenses for rare earth minerals, which are crucial for clean technology, automotive production, and defense sectors [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner noted that while some companies have received these licenses, further details are needed for a comprehensive assessment of the process [1] - China's new export licensing requirements for rare earths were introduced in April 2025, as a direct response to U.S. tariffs, and were further strengthened in October 2025 [1][7] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, criticized China's export restrictions during a conference in Berlin, highlighting their impact on the automotive, defense, and AI sectors [3] - The EU has launched the RESourceEU initiative to reduce dependency on Chinese raw materials, focusing on partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and Chile [3] - The initiative also aims to increase investment in domestic production and recycling of critical raw materials within the EU [3] Group 3 - The EU Commission initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, citing evidence of unfair competition due to low-priced subsidized imports [4] - The investigation period covers from October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023, with trend analysis dating back to January 1, 2020 [4] - The EU plans to impose temporary tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by July 2024, followed by permanent tariffs in October 2024 [4] Group 4 - China's Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining a fair trade environment through anti-dumping investigations against certain EU products [5] - Negotiations between China and the EU are ongoing to discuss issues such as minimum pricing mechanisms for electric vehicles [5] - The EU's response to China's export controls includes joint procurement and stockpiling of critical raw materials to mitigate potential supply disruptions [7][8] Group 5 - The EU is accelerating diversification efforts in response to strengthened rare earth export controls from China, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese dominance in the market [8] - Cooperation agreements with countries like Canada are being pursued to enhance exploration and processing of raw materials [8]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] - Various provinces are unveiling local versions of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on cultivating new productive forces and detailed industrial innovation [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus Areas - Multiple regions are prioritizing cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing, with significant projects being planned [1] - Beijing aims to cultivate a leading global AI industry ecosystem, focusing on high-end chips and foundational software [1] - Zhejiang is working to develop emerging pillar industries, accelerating clusters in AI, aerospace, and biomedicine [1] - Guangdong plans to create a high-tech, high-growth, large-scale industrial cluster around "AI + Robotics," with Shenzhen's "Robot Valley" already established as a complete ecosystem [1][4] Group 2: Policy and Industry Support - The Greater Bay Area has developed differentiated policy matrices, with Shenzhen focusing on "complete machines + chips" and Guangzhou on "robots + application scenarios," supported by provincial demonstration industry funds [6] - The integration of these policies is expected to comprehensively support industrial development [6] Group 3: Resource Allocation and Competitive Advantage - Regions are targeting national strategic needs to form differentiated competitive advantages, such as Inner Mongolia's goal to become the largest rare earth materials base and Guizhou's focus on computing power industries [8] - Hainan is enhancing its innovation capabilities in sectors like seed industry, deep-sea, and aerospace [8] Group 4: Comprehensive Development Framework - There is a consensus on building a full-chain development system from basic research to technology breakthroughs and industrial clustering to foster new productive forces and promote high-quality industrial chain development [11] - Shandong is implementing a ten-year action plan to increase investment in basic research, while Jiangsu is pushing for breakthroughs in key technologies in integrated circuits and biomanufacturing [11] Group 5: Economic Transition and Future Roadmap - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical five years for achieving socialist modernization, with the development of emerging industries being the foundation for high-quality economic growth and the transformation of old and new driving forces [13] - Future development roadmaps are becoming clearer, indicating a significant trend towards the transformation of industrial structures to be more "new" and "intelligent" [13]

中国刚刚给了欧盟稀土出口开"绿灯"，欧盟这边反手就让中国"二选一". 法国总统马克龙日前在媒体上一边强调中欧合作，一边又话里带刺，摆出一副"要么让利、要么开战"的 姿态，中国商务部的回应可以说是反将一军。 那么问题来了，欧盟刚拿到稀土就"翻脸"，他们究竟是想干什么？中国又是如何回应的？ 马克龙发文让中国二选一 中国刚绿灯，马克龙就让中国二选一 自从中国对稀土出口进行管控后，欧盟内部就彻底坐不住了，期间中欧双方进行了多轮沟通，终于在12 月中旬欧盟得到了想要的稀土。 当地时间12月15日，欧盟官员谢夫乔维奇表示：中国已开始发放有效期更长的稀土许可证，还专门为欧 洲开了绿色通道，审批速度提了不止一个档，得知这一消息的欧洲厂商立刻松了口气，看上去，一切都 在往好的方向走。 但没几天，马克龙就发文放出"二选一"的话，要么合作解决贸易不平衡，要么欧盟只能祭出保护主义工 具。 换句话说，中国并不是靠"出口倾销"在压欧盟的生存空间，而是产业结构本身的互补性决定了今天的贸 易形态。 谢夫乔维奇 他的措辞不算激烈，但态度很明确：稀土可以拿，但规则得重新谈，门不能只开一边。 这个节奏有点像什么？就像你刚把房门打开，客人一边进门一 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 申万金工 ETF 组合 202512 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 宏观行业组合：针对所有标记为"行业主题"的 ETF，选择成立时间 1 年以上、当期规模 2 亿以上的产品跟踪的行业主题指数，每个月根据历史数据计算经济、流动性、信用的敏 感性得分，然后根据最新的经济、流动性、信用判断指标调整得分方向后进行加总，最终 得到排名前 6 的行业主题指数，然后取对应规模最大的 ETF 进行等权配置。目前经济前 瞻指标继续回 ...

缺稀土缺到工厂停工，那美国稀土明明多到用不完，为啥还要从我国购买，中国稀土为何能"卡"全世 界？ 稀土"出口管制"后的美国困境 2025年4月，中国突然发布了稀土出口管制令，这个动作立刻让美国的制造业陷入前所未有的紧张状 态，甚至出现了美国企业考虑把汽车零部件生产部分反向转移到中国的情况。 这种现象乍一看让人难以理解，美国自己地底下的稀土储量也有大约190万吨，占全球约2%，理论上完 全能满足国内需求。 而且几十年来，美国在稀土问题上并不缺乏规划，从奥巴马2010年的《稀土和关键材料复兴法案》，到 特朗普上台后喊的"让稀土回来"，目标都是要在2025年实现自主供应。 可是，当管制真正落地，结果却是工厂停工、零部件断供，美国对中国依赖非但没减少，反而暴露出更 深层次的工业问题。 问题的关键不在于矿藏本身，而在于工业能力。 稀土看起来像土，其实是元素周期表上的17种元素，这些元素大多性状接近，天然就喜欢"抱团"，要从 矿石里提取出来并达到高纯度用于高端制造，难度极大。 美国目前的稀土产业实际上停留在"原矿搬运"阶段。 以MP公司为例，即便在美国开足马力挖矿，最终得到的仍然是一堆含稀土的石头，由于缺乏精炼能 力，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is shifting its approach towards China from "de-risking" to a more aggressive stance characterized by "extortion," particularly in response to China's export controls on critical raw materials like rare earths [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Strategy - Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, suggests that the EU should leverage tariffs as a bargaining tool, demanding China ease its rare earth export controls and commit to a monthly 1.5% appreciation of the yuan [3][10]. - The EU is considering legislative measures to enforce a reduction in dependency on Chinese supply chains, indicating a move away from market-driven decisions to regulatory mandates [4][10]. Group 2: Dependency on China - The EU currently consumes approximately 20,000 tons of permanent magnets annually, with 17,000 to 18,000 tons sourced directly from China, highlighting a significant dependency on Chinese raw materials [5][10]. - The EU's plan includes a €30 billion investment to support mining, refining, and recycling projects, although industry insiders express skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [8][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The EU is caught between the resource-rich United States and China's efficient supply chains, leading to a sense of anxiety and frustration among European policymakers [10][11]. - The EU's shift towards weaponizing trade reflects a broader trend where global trade dynamics are increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations rather than traditional free market principles [11][13].

【何亚东】: 各位记者朋友： 大家下午好，欢迎参加商务部例行新闻发布会。今天我没有需要向大家通报的信息。下面请提问。 【CGTN记者】: 年终消费旺季将至，如何进一步推动线上线下（300959）消费相融合，在提振消费中更加惠民生？ 【何亚东】: 感谢您对扩消费工作的关注。岁末年初是传统消费旺季，商务部将坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，扩大 优质商品和服务供给，创新消费场景，更好满足人民美好生活需要。 一是开展系列活动。我们将按照2026年"购在中国"系列活动总体安排，结合岁末年初消费特点，组织开 展新春消费季、网上年货节、老字号嘉年华等丰富多彩的促消费活动，指导各地举办冰雪消费季、美食 荟、展演季等群众喜闻乐见的活动，营造浓厚的消费氛围。 二是创新消费场景。我们将加快推进消费新业态新模式新场景试点和国际化消费环境建设工作，打造更 加舒适、便捷的消费环境。指导各地打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景，包括服务消费、数字 消费、绿色消费、"人工智能+消费"等领域，给群众带来更加愉悦的消费体验。 三是丰富消费供给。我们将加强工作部署，做好岁末年初生活必需品保供工作，丰富商品供应。同时， 我们将通过扩大高水平对外开放， ...