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多空博弈Robotaxi:“木头姐”建仓,机构现分歧
第一财经· 2025-08-15 15:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing interest and skepticism surrounding the Robotaxi industry, highlighting significant investments and contrasting opinions on the sector's future potential and challenges [3][4]. Investment Trends - Cathie Wood's ARK Fund invested approximately $12.9 million in Pony.ai, marking the first time the fund has held shares in a Chinese autonomous driving company [3]. - The report from ARK Invest predicts the global Robotaxi market could reach $10 trillion by 2030, with a fleet size of 50 million vehicles and an industry valuation of $34 trillion [3]. Market Challenges - Recent reports from short-sellers have raised concerns about the operational challenges faced by Robotaxi companies, including long wait times and limited vehicle availability [4][6]. - Specific criticisms include Tesla's initial Robotaxi fleet size of only about 10 vehicles and the operational hurdles related to local regulations and infrastructure [6][9]. Company Performance - In Q2, Pony.ai reported total revenue of 154 million yuan, with a net loss of approximately 38.2 million yuan, while its Robotaxi business revenue grew by 157.8% [9]. - WeRide's Q2 revenue was 127 million yuan, a 60.8% year-on-year increase, with a net loss of 30.1 million yuan, and its Robotaxi revenue surged by 836.7% [9]. Operational Efficiency - Companies are focusing on expanding their Robotaxi fleets and reducing wait times as key objectives [7][8]. - For instance, Pony.ai plans to expand its fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, while Baidu's Apollo has deployed over 1,000 autonomous vehicles across 15 cities [8][9]. Cost Reduction - The decline in soft and hardware costs is a significant factor driving industry growth, with companies reporting reductions in system costs by up to 70% [10]. - For example, WeRide's new platform has achieved a 50% reduction in costs, while Pony.ai's latest models have seen a 70% decrease in total costs [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Robotaxi business will begin to see profitability around 2025 for some companies, while others, like Pony.ai, estimate breakeven by 2028 [10][11]. - The industry is expected to undergo significant changes, with traditional ride-hailing platforms potentially shifting to a light-asset model, integrating third-party autonomous fleets [11][12].