证券研究报告 2026年03月06日 汽车 汽车行业专题报告：中美两强竞争，全球商业化共振 ——Robotaxi系列报告三 评级：推荐(维持) 戴畅(证券分析师) 胡惠民(证券分析师) S0350523120004 S0350525030004 daic@ghzq.com.cn huhm@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -16% -8% 0% 9% 17% 25% 2025/03/05 2026/03/05 汽车 沪深300 《汽车行业周报：广州正式宣布全域开放无人驾驶应用场景，多地印发2026 年以旧换新补贴细则（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2026-03-02 《汽车行业周报：特斯拉下线首辆无人驾驶出租车，马年春晚4家机器人企业 亮相（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2026-02-24 《汽车行业周报：理想新一代L9、问界M6预热，比亚迪成立新子品牌"领汇" （推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2026-02-10 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汽车 | -1.5% | 3.4% | 10.5% | | 沪深300 | ...

Core Insights - WeRide and Uber have officially launched the first Robotaxi commercial operation service in downtown Abu Dhabi, marking the first deployment of autonomous vehicles in the area [1] - The Robotaxi service now covers approximately 70% of the core areas in Abu Dhabi, expanding the operational range significantly [1] - Currently, each vehicle is equipped with a safety operator, with plans to transition to fully autonomous operation in phases [1] Company Operations - WeRide has deployed over 200 Robotaxis in the Middle East region, indicating a strong presence in the autonomous vehicle market [1] - Tawasul Transport, a local transportation company, is managing the WeRide Robotaxi fleet on the Uber platform, providing fleet management services [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese autonomous driving industry is transitioning from technical feasibility to commercial viability, with significant advancements in Robotaxi operations and fleet sizes [1][6] - Major players like Xiaoma Zhixing and Didi Chuxing are expanding their fleets and partnerships, indicating a shift towards large-scale operations and deeper collaborations across the industry [2][4] Fleet Expansion - Xiaoma Zhixing's fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 1,159 vehicles, marking a significant milestone in the industry [2] - The platform of Ruoqi Chuxing has over 300 Robotaxi vehicles in operation, with a cumulative safe mileage of nearly 6 million kilometers, covering multiple cities in Guangdong [1][2] Partnerships and Collaborations - Didi Chuxing and GAC Aion's R2 model delivery showcases a closed-loop acceleration from R&D to mass production, highlighting the deepening division of labor within the industry [3][4] - Xiaoma Zhixing has signed significant agreements with partners like BAIC New Energy and Aitebo, focusing on co-creating products and exploring efficient monetization paths for Robotaxi services [4] Regional Advantages - Guangdong has emerged as a hub for the Robotaxi industry, with leading companies like Xiaoma Zhixing and Ruoqi Chuxing establishing a strong presence [5] - The region's policies have lowered the barriers for companies to enter new cities, facilitating quicker expansion and operational efficiency [5] Cost and Regulatory Challenges - High operational costs are identified as the primary constraint to commercial viability, overshadowing technical maturity and liability definitions [6][7] - The current regulatory framework is lagging, with unclear standards for commercial operation capabilities and liability definitions, complicating the industry's growth [7] Future Recommendations - Industry experts suggest standardizing vehicle models and expanding pilot areas to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [8] - Implementing a mixed scheduling model and promoting standardized mass-produced vehicles are recommended to lower per-vehicle costs and improve service delivery [8]

Core Viewpoint - Waymo's autonomous vehicle was involved in an accident where it struck a child near a school, raising concerns about the safety of self-driving technology, but the company argues that human drivers would have likely caused more severe injuries in a similar situation [1][2][6]. Group 1: Accident Details - The incident occurred during peak school hours when a child unexpectedly ran into the street from behind a parked SUV, leading to the collision with Waymo's fifth-generation autonomous vehicle, which had no safety driver onboard [2][5]. - Waymo reported that the vehicle's system detected the child and initiated emergency braking, reducing the speed from approximately 27.4 km/h to below 9.7 km/h before impact [5]. - Following the accident, the child was able to stand and walk to the sidewalk, and Waymo contacted law enforcement to report the incident [5]. Group 2: Safety Assessment - Waymo conducted a review using a "peer-reviewed model" to assess the safety of its autonomous driving system, concluding that a focused human driver would have collided with the child at a higher speed of 22.5 km/h, more than double the speed at which the Waymo vehicle struck [6][8]. - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is currently evaluating whether Waymo's vehicles take appropriate precautions when encountering vulnerable road users like children [5]. Group 3: Public Perception and Future Plans - Despite the accident, some public sentiment suggests that Waymo's technology may be safer than human driving, as it aims to minimize injury in such incidents [7][11]. - Waymo is expanding its operations, recently launching Robotaxi services in Miami, marking its sixth city in the U.S. and planning to enter 12 more cities this year [12][15]. - The company is also introducing a new model of autonomous vehicle equipped with advanced sensors and technology, enhancing its service offerings [17]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Waymo's expansion includes entering the airport transportation sector, a lucrative market traditionally dominated by ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft [15]. - The company is set to launch Robotaxi services in London by the end of 2023, positioning itself against other leading players in the autonomous vehicle market [19][21]. - Comparatively, Tesla's Robotaxi service has faced scrutiny due to a significantly higher accident rate, with incidents occurring at a rate nine times greater than that of human drivers [22][24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the Robotaxi industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth in the U.S. by 2026, driven by advancements from companies like Tesla and Waymo [6][5]. - Tesla has initiated public operations of its fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet in Austin, with plans for widespread application by the end of 2026 [6]. - Waymo is expanding its operational areas significantly, with plans to increase the number of cities it serves, including Miami and others [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Tesla's fully autonomous Robotaxi fleet began public service in Austin on January 22, 2026, with gradual increases in vehicle numbers planned [6]. - Waymo has expanded its operational area in Austin from 90 to 140 square miles and is set to launch services in additional cities [6]. Future Projections - By the end of 2026, Robotaxi services are anticipated to be widely adopted across the U.S., influencing related industries domestically [6]. - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to enter production in April 2026, with a projected cost of less than $0.20 per mile for large-scale operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Ponyo, Horizon Robotics, and XPeng Motors, while also suggesting to monitor other players like Didi Global, Uber, and Cao Cao Mobility [6].

Summary of Robotaxi Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry is expected to see significant developments in 2026, particularly in major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, where the operational areas are projected to expand into urban districts, supported by improved legal and insurance frameworks [1][2]. Key Companies and Their Strategies - Leading domestic Robotaxi companies include Xiaoma Zhixing, Baidu's Luobo Kuaipao, and WeRide, which share similar technological routes but differ in focus: Xiaoma emphasizes stability, Luobo Kuaipao focuses on product diversity and algorithm accuracy, while WeRide excels in control systems [1][3]. - Xiaoma Zhixing is concentrating on a domestic single-vehicle profitability model, whereas WeRide is focusing on international market expansion, indicating a strategic divergence that may influence long-term competitiveness [12]. Technological Maturity and Development - The technological maturity of Robotaxi companies is categorized as follows: Waymo is at T0 level, while Xiaoma, Baidu, and WeRide are at T1 level. New entrants like XPeng and NIO are classified as T3 [4]. - The industry is approaching a plateau in technological advancement, with expectations that the gap between T0 and T1 players will diminish over the next few years [5]. Cost Structure and Future Cost Reduction - The cost of a Robotaxi is approximately 300,000 yuan, with the vehicle itself costing 120,000 to 160,000 yuan, and the remaining costs attributed to sensors and modifications [10]. - Future cost reduction strategies include using cheaper vehicle bodies, decreasing core component prices by 10%-20% annually, and reducing modification costs through increased production [10]. Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The regulatory landscape for Robotaxis is expected to become more favorable, with clearer legal frameworks and insurance policies emerging by 2026 [2]. - The transition from L2 level assisted driving to L4 level fully autonomous driving is complex and requires significant operational mileage and licensing [6]. Competitive Landscape - New entrants like Didi and Cao Cao Chuxing are currently lagging behind established players, with Didi classified in the third tier due to past regulatory setbacks [13]. - The Robotaxi industry is anticipated to shift from a technology-driven focus to an operations-driven model by 2030, where operational capabilities will become critical for success [12]. Deployment Challenges - Deploying Robotaxis in new cities typically requires at least one year, involving multiple stages such as map collection, algorithm adaptation, and road testing [15]. - Each city presents unique traffic conditions and safety requirements, necessitating tailored preparations before operational launch [16]. Future Catalysts - Significant events in 2026 may include Tesla's introduction of Robotaxis in the U.S., which could influence domestic manufacturers to follow suit, potentially altering the existing technological landscape [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The global shared mobility market is undergoing a critical transition from human-driven to automated services, exhibiting significant regional differentiation [4][9]. North America Market - The North American ride-hailing market is dominated by Uber and Lyft, creating a stable pricing power. In the Robotaxi sector, Waymo holds a monopoly while Tesla aggressively disrupts the market. Chinese Robotaxi companies face barriers due to a 2025 U.S. Department of Commerce ban on hardware and software, complicating their commercialization path [4][9][16]. European Market - The European regulatory environment is fragmented and stringent, with local automakers lagging in L4 algorithm development. This creates a unique "hybrid model" opportunity, where "U.S./local platforms + Chinese technology" could break through. Uber and Lyft's collaboration with Baidu Apollo indicates that de-branding technology output is a favorable solution for entering the European market [4][9][16]. Middle East Market - The Middle East presents a unique "three highs and one low" characteristic: high customer spending, high policy support, high infrastructure investment, and low energy costs. Gulf countries are eager to reduce oil dependency, viewing autonomous driving as a national strategy. Chinese companies like WeRide and Pony.ai benefit from dual advantages of road rights and licenses, making it an ideal training ground and commercialization area for overseas expansion [4][9][16]. Southeast Asia Market - The Southeast Asian ride-hailing market is large but has low customer spending. Low labor costs may lead to economic challenges for Robotaxi operations. In the short term, large-scale deployment of Robotaxis is not cost-effective, and two-wheeled vehicles remain mainstream. Singapore, with its high labor costs, may achieve Robotaxi commercialization [4][5][9]. Investment Focus - Focus on the L4 RoboX industry chain, prioritizing B-end software over C-end hardware. Recommended stocks include: - Hong Kong stocks: Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai, WeRide, Cao Cao Mobility, and Black Sesame Technology - A-shares: Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirain - Downstream application-related stocks from the Robotaxi perspective include integrated models (Tesla, Xpeng Motors), technology providers with revenue-sharing models (Horizon, Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide, Qianli Technology), and the transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services (Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, Ruqi Mobility, Dazhong Transportation, Jinjiang Online) [6][9]. Regulatory and Market Barriers - The regulatory landscape for Robotaxis abroad features a dual approach of support and regulation. Companies must assume clear accident liability and purchase sufficient liability insurance. Vehicles must have complete data recording capabilities and undergo third-party safety assessments. Operationally, there are restrictions on operational areas, fleet size, and speed [12][14]. Market Size and Growth - The North American shared mobility market is projected to grow significantly, with the total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) expected to reach billions by 2030. The European market also shows substantial potential, albeit with slower conversion rates. The Middle East is characterized by strong government support, while Southeast Asia presents a high-growth potential due to infrastructure gaps [21][22][27]. Pricing Dynamics - Pricing dynamics vary significantly across regions, influenced by local labor costs and regulatory environments. North America has high labor costs, allowing Robotaxis to survive without extreme price reductions. In contrast, Europe faces stringent labor protections that increase operational costs. The Middle East's pricing is shaped by government-led transportation strategies, while Southeast Asia's ultra-low fares are supported by low labor costs [33][34]. Profitability Disparities - Profitability varies significantly across countries, with developed regions showing higher absolute margins per Robotaxi. Revenue per vehicle in China, UAE, UK, and the US is estimated at approximately $40,000, $90,000, $250,000, and $250,000 respectively, with gross margins reflecting these disparities [34][35].

Summary of Robotaxi Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry is experiencing accelerated development due to the opening of autonomous driving road rights, expanding from remote areas like Shanghai Lingang to the entire Pudong and Minhang districts. Other cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are following similar trends, with large-scale rollout expected by 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Policy and Regulatory Changes - Significant changes in policy and enterprise progress in L4 and L3 autonomous driving are noted, with 2025 being seen as the "Robo Taxi Year." The opening of road rights has expanded significantly, with Shanghai allowing operations in popular areas by 2025 [2]. - Platforms must now apply for demonstration operation licenses through local ride-hailing or taxi companies, limiting the direct operational profitability of tech platforms [1][2]. - The assessment for intelligent connected vehicle licenses involves three stages: road testing, demonstration application, and demonstration operation, with a total of 12 types of licenses being gradually integrated across regions [3]. Technological Approaches - Three main technological routes are identified: 1. High-precision map solutions, exemplified by companies like Baidu and Pony.ai, which are mature but costly [4]. 2. Clear map or no-map solutions that rely on advanced algorithms, reducing mapping costs but increasing algorithm complexity [4]. 3. Pure visual end-to-end solutions, like those used by Tesla, which can operate without signals or navigation, closely mimicking human driving [4]. Market Participants - The domestic Robotaxi market consists of three main groups: 1. Technology companies (e.g., Baidu, Pony.ai) with high single-vehicle costs. 2. OEM-backed platforms (e.g., T3 Mobility, Cao Cao Mobility) with lower vehicle costs but weaker algorithm capabilities. 3. Traffic platforms (e.g., Didi, Amap) leveraging user data to enhance competitiveness [5][6]. Commercialization Progress - Companies are nearing single-vehicle breakeven, with Baidu and Pony.ai optimizing hardware and service quality to expand market coverage [7]. - Baidu has deployed 3,000 vehicles, primarily in Wuhan, with daily rides averaging 12-18. Pony.ai operates in major cities but on a smaller scale [11]. Financial Metrics - Baidu's vehicle cost is approximately 280,000 RMB, with daily operational costs around 290 RMB, achieving breakeven in Wuhan and profitability in Shanghai. Pony.ai's daily revenue in Guangzhou is about 299 RMB with a 40% utilization rate [15][16]. Future Industry Landscape - The Robotaxi industry is expected to evolve into three main player types: license holders (local taxi or ride-hailing companies), OEMs with vehicle manufacturing capabilities, and traffic platforms benefiting from data and mapping services [18]. - Amap is positioned to gain significant market share in the autonomous driving sector due to its large user base and partnerships with OEMs [19]. Cost Differences - Operational costs for overseas Robotaxi services are significantly higher than in China, with costs in regions like the Middle East and Europe being 1.5 times higher, and vehicle prices three times higher than in China [21]. Data and Connectivity Costs - Robotaxi operations incur substantial data costs, with each vehicle generating approximately 40GB of data daily, leading to high monthly expenses for data storage and processing [20]. Additional Important Insights - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lower vehicle-to-driver ratios, which will reduce data transmission volumes and associated costs, indicating a trend towards profitability and cost reduction in the Robotaxi sector [22][23].

Core Insights - The Robotaxi industry is entering an accelerated development phase due to the maturity of autonomous driving technology and the relaxation of regulations, particularly in major Chinese cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][9] - Robotaxi, defined as "autonomous driving taxis" utilizing L4/L5 level autonomous systems, is expected to reach a market size of nearly 300 billion yuan by 2025, with long-term potential in the trillions [1][9] Technology - L4 autonomous driving technology is gradually maturing, with leading companies in the U.S. achieving an average mileage of nearly 10,000 miles in road tests, and accident rates significantly lower than human drivers [2][10] Policy - National policies are continuously advancing, with local regulations being refined. The Ministry of Transport issued guidelines for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles in December 2023, outlining requirements for application scenarios, safety measures, and vehicle specifications [3][11] - The government is also accelerating the development of supporting infrastructure for Robotaxi, including the "vehicle-road-cloud" integration initiatives [3][11] Cost - Lower-cost vehicles are expected to be mass-produced and launched by 2026, which is crucial for achieving a positive unit economic model. The cost of complete vehicles may drop to around 150,000 yuan [5][13] - The price of lidar components has significantly decreased, from over 100,000 yuan to the thousand-yuan range, allowing the overall lidar cost for vehicles to potentially fall to around 10,000 yuan [5][13] - The Robotaxi market is anticipated to penetrate rapidly by 2026, with increased vehicle density and reduced costs leading to higher daily order volumes and lower operational costs [6][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xiaoma Zhixing has announced its achievement in the scale of Robotaxi, exceeding its target for 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the company plans to have over 1,159 Robotaxi vehicles, surpassing the initial goal of 1,000 vehicles [1]