Robotaxi 行业近况更新 20260107 摘要 自动驾驶路权开放加速，从上海临港等偏远地区扩展至浦东全域及闵行 部分区域，北京、广州、深圳、杭州等地亦有类似趋势，预计 2026 年 大规模铺开，为 Robotaxi 发展奠定基础。 平台资质收紧，科技平台需通过当地网约车或出租车平台申请示范运营 牌照，如上海要求锦江、强生等企业申请，深圳仅发放给当地出租车公 司，限制了科技平台直接运营盈利的可能性。 智能网联汽车牌照考核分为道路测试、示范应用和示范运营三个阶段， 共 12 种类型，并逐步向区域融合发展，如成都重庆互认，苏州认可上 海牌照，简化了跨区域运营流程。 Robotaxi 技术路线分为高精地图、清图/无图和纯视觉端到端方案，各 有优劣。高精地图方案技术成熟但成本高，清图方案降低测绘成本但算 法复杂，纯视觉方案更接近人类驾驶体验。 国内 Robotaxi 市场参与者分为技术公司（如萝卜快跑、小马智行）、 主机厂平台（如 T3 出行、曹操出行）和流量平台（如滴滴、高德）， 各阵营在成本、技术和数据方面各有优势。 Q&A 2026 年在 L4 和 L3 自动驾驶领域的政策和企业进展情况如何？ 2025 ...

网约车利用移动互联网技术创新重塑了生产关系，极大提升了用户的打车效率，但是供给侧的放松也导 致了目前行业内卷的状况，司机、运力合作方和网约车平台都陷入了盈利困境。打车费用中，司机成本 占比约70%。Robotaxi通过技术取代人力，可以较显著地优化成本结构，同时降低打车费和运营成本， 平台和用户有望双赢。而这一轮Robotaxi行业的加速发展，主要依托于技术成熟+政策放宽+成本下降， 2026年头部玩家有望在个别城市跑通商业模式： 1、技术层面 L4级自动驾驶技术逐步成熟。加州DMV官网的路测数据显示，美国Robotaxi头部公司的平均接管里程 数（MPI）接近1万英里，瑞士再保险公司数据也显示该公司的事故率较大程度低于人类司机。 2、政策层面 国家配套政策持续推进，地方"细则"、"条例"不断完善。国家层面已出具与出租汽车客运有关的自动驾 驶文件。2023年12月交通运输部发布了《自动驾驶汽车运输安全服务指南（试行）》，直接对使用自动 驾驶汽车从事出租汽车客运的主体进行规定，例如应用场景、安全保障、运输车辆、人员配备等。 国家层面也在加快出台车路云等Robotaxi的配套设施政策。我国除了对Robotaxi本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xiaoma Zhixing has announced its achievement in the scale of Robotaxi, exceeding its target for 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the company plans to have over 1,159 Robotaxi vehicles, surpassing the initial goal of 1,000 vehicles [1]

Group 1 - A large-scale power outage caused several autonomous vehicles to malfunction, leading Waymo to temporarily suspend its autonomous taxi service in San Francisco, resulting in traffic chaos in certain areas of the city [1] - Videos shared on social media showed Waymo vehicles blocking intersections and lanes, exacerbating congestion as traffic signals failed due to the outage, causing significant delays for drivers [1] - Waymo's spokesperson stated that the company prioritized passenger safety and ensured emergency personnel could navigate the affected areas freely [1] Group 2 - The incident highlights the reliance of autonomous fleets on external infrastructure, revealing vulnerabilities to uncontrollable failures such as power grid interruptions, despite Waymo's claims of superior safety metrics compared to human drivers [1] - Waymo is one of the most advanced commercial autonomous taxi operators in the U.S., providing paid driverless services in parts of San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles, representing a key long-term bet for Alphabet to expand its leadership in artificial intelligence beyond search and advertising into real-world transportation [1] - The power outage affected approximately one-third of the city, caused by a fire at a Pacific Gas and Electric Company substation, impacting multiple neighborhoods before the fire was brought under control [2]

Summary of Robotaxi Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry in China is accelerating commercialization, with Baidu's "LuoBo Kuaipao" leading in revenue, expected to exceed 340 million yuan in 2024 and reach 220 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with projections for significant growth by year-end [1][13] - The industry faces three main challenges: policy, cost, and technology [1][33] Key Players and Strategies - **Baidu's LuoBo Kuaipao**: - Focused on the Wuhan market with 1,200 vehicles, achieving breakeven in gross profit [1][13] - Operates 18 hours daily with a mileage of 200-230 km per vehicle [15] - Average GMV per kilometer before subsidies is 2.98 yuan, with a customer repurchase rate of approximately 25% [1][16] - **Xiaoma Zhixing**: - Targets first-tier cities with a unique site selection strategy, achieving an average nominal income of 400 yuan per vehicle per day [2][20] - Plans to reduce vehicle costs from 270,000 yuan to below 200,000 yuan [2][21] - **WenYuan ZhiXing**: - Focuses on overseas markets, with plans to launch in Shanghai by 2026 and a core market in the Middle East [2][24] - Currently has a smaller domestic presence compared to competitors [2][22] - **Didi Chuxing**: - Faces challenges due to regulatory issues but is developing a joint venture for Robotaxi operations [2][26] Policy Dynamics - The policy landscape is evolving, with rapid opening of road rights in major cities like Shanghai and Wuhan [2][33] - Platform qualification and vehicle licensing are becoming stricter, with a focus on safety and risk prevention [2][33] Technology Development - The industry is divided into three technological routes: high-precision maps, clear maps, and end-to-end no-map solutions [1][8] - High-precision maps are stable but require mapping qualifications, while clear maps are flexible but demand high algorithm capabilities [1][8] Financial Performance and Cost Structure - LuoBo Kuaipao's operational costs include vehicle depreciation, operational center expenses, licensing fees, and insurance, with a vehicle cost of approximately 280,000 yuan [1][17] - The company is exploring cost reduction strategies, including optimizing human resources and leveraging partnerships [1][19] Future Outlook - The commercialization outlook for Robotaxi services is optimistic, with expectations of significant growth as policies relax and technology improves [1][6] - By 2027, it is anticipated that 3-5 major Robotaxi platforms will operate fleets of 2,000-5,000 vehicles [2][28] Additional Insights - The average accident rate for autonomous vehicles is lower than that of human drivers, indicating a potential safety advantage [2][32] - The industry must overcome barriers related to policy, cost, and technology to achieve widespread adoption [2][33]

Group 1 - The article highlights a positive outlook on the robotaxi sector, indicating that it has started to perform well, although the A-share market has not yet reflected this trend [1] - It mentions that the unit economics for robotaxi have turned positive, meaning that individual units are no longer operating at a loss [2] - The article references an upcoming event by ByteDance on December 18, which will showcase several AI-related products, including AI smartphones, AI glasses, and AI ear devices [2] Group 2 - Tesla's stock performance is discussed, with a current price of $489.88 and a market capitalization of $1,629.3 billion, alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of 321 [2] - The article provides technical indicators for Tesla's stock, including MACD and TRIX values, suggesting a detailed analysis of its trading performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent accident involving a Haolo Robotaxi has raised significant concerns about the safety of autonomous driving technology, particularly as it is one of the few incidents where a Robotaxi has reportedly struck pedestrians [1][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Details - A Haolo Robotaxi was involved in an accident in Zhuzhou, Hunan, where it allegedly struck two pedestrians at a crosswalk, leading to injuries that required hospitalization [4][6]. - The local hospital confirmed that the injured individuals, a man and a woman, were admitted to the ICU, although their specific conditions remain unclear [4][6]. - Following the incident, Haolo's autonomous driving operations in the area have been suspended, with no timeline provided for resumption [6][16]. Group 2: Company Response and Safety Measures - Haolo's co-founder emphasized that safety is the cornerstone of autonomous driving commercialization, highlighting the importance of addressing this incident to maintain public trust [3][12]. - The company has not provided detailed information about the accident, but customer service representatives indicated that they are cooperating with relevant authorities [4][6]. - The HR1 model involved in the incident is equipped with multiple safety features, including various types of sensors and a high-performance computing architecture, which raises questions about the effectiveness of these technologies in real-world scenarios [7][11][10]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Implications - Haolo's entry into the Robotaxi market has been marked by strategic partnerships with major companies like Ant Group and CATL, which provide technological and operational support [12][14]. - The Robotaxi sector is still in the early stages of user acceptance, and any accidents can significantly impact public perception and trust in autonomous vehicles [3][28]. - The global Robotaxi market is projected to reach 834.9 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 239% from 2024 to 2030, indicating a highly competitive landscape [26].

Core Points - Waymo's autonomous vehicles have faced significant safety issues, including illegal maneuvers around school buses and accidents involving pedestrians and animals [2][4][14] - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has initiated investigations and issued a recall for Waymo's software due to repeated violations and safety concerns [5][8][10] - The rapid expansion of Robotaxi services raises questions about the adequacy of technology and safety measures in place [18][21] Group 1: Waymo's Safety Issues - Waymo's autonomous vehicles have been involved in multiple incidents, including passing a stopped school bus with flashing lights while students were disembarking, which is a violation of traffic laws [5][6] - The NHTSA has documented at least 19 instances of Waymo vehicles illegally overtaking school buses this academic year, prompting further scrutiny and a recall of their software [10][11] - Despite acknowledging the need for improvements, Waymo's leadership has maintained that their vehicles perform better than human drivers in certain scenarios [4][13] Group 2: Regulatory Response - The NHTSA has launched an investigation into Waymo's compliance with traffic regulations concerning school buses, focusing on the vehicle's response in critical situations [8][10] - Following complaints from the Austin Independent School District (AISD), Waymo was urged to halt operations during peak school hours until safety could be assured, which the company refused [8][13] - Waymo's recent software updates have not resolved the issues, as further violations were reported shortly after the updates were implemented [10][11] Group 3: Industry Implications - The aggressive expansion of Robotaxi services in major U.S. cities has led to increased incidents, raising concerns about the balance between operational efficiency and safety [14][18] - Reports indicate a shift in the behavior of Robotaxi vehicles from overly cautious to more aggressive driving patterns, potentially endangering public safety [19][21] - The industry faces scrutiny regarding the maturity of autonomous driving technology, especially in light of systemic failures that could amplify public concerns [21]

Core Viewpoint - Cao Cao Mobility has announced an ambitious "Ten Years, One Hundred Cities, One Hundred Billion" strategy for its Robotaxi business, aiming to establish five global operation centers, expand services to 100 cities, and achieve a total transaction value (GTV) of 100 billion RMB over the next decade [2][4]. Group 1: Robotaxi Market and Strategy - The global Robotaxi market is transitioning from a "technical feasibility verification" phase to a "replicable commercial expansion" phase, indicating a pivotal moment for the autonomous taxi industry [5]. - Cao Cao Mobility is the only domestic company and one of the few globally that possesses all essential elements for Robotaxi operations, offering a comprehensive solution that integrates smart customized vehicles, intelligent driving technology, and smart operational systems [6][8]. Group 2: Operational System and Infrastructure - A complete operational system is crucial for the success of Robotaxi services, which includes integrating intelligent driving technology into vehicles and providing consumer services to create a commercial loop [10]. - Cao Cao Mobility has established systematic capabilities in user service, platform scheduling, and asset management, ensuring operational efficiency and user experience [11]. - The introduction of the "green intelligent passage island" marks a significant step in smart mobility infrastructure, featuring automatic battery swapping, cleaning, vehicle maintenance, intelligent scheduling, and automatic settlement functions [15][16]. Group 3: Future Development and Collaboration - The Robotaxi strategy follows a "three-step" approach: initial technical validation and small-scale testing, transitioning to mixed operations with human drivers and autonomous vehicles, and finally launching fully customized Robotaxi models for comprehensive commercial operations globally [17]. - A strategic partnership has been signed with Qianli Technology to accelerate the large-scale application and commercialization of intelligent driving technology [20]. - The development of the Robotaxi business is expected to create new job opportunities and explore diverse revenue models, contributing to the green and intelligent transformation of urban transportation [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Robotaxi industry [1]. Core Insights - Xiaoma Zhixing has achieved single-vehicle profitability in Guangzhou, with a revenue of $60.88 million for the first three quarters, including $9.95 million from Robotaxi, representing a year-on-year increase of 112%. The company aims to reach 1,000 vehicles by the end of the year and plans to expand to over 3,000 vehicles in 2026, with a 20% reduction in BOM costs for the seventh-generation autonomous driving suite [3]. - WeRide has seen significant revenue growth, with a total of 371 million RMB and 97 million RMB from Robotaxi, marking a year-on-year increase of 457%. The company is expanding its presence in the Middle East, with 150 Robotaxis currently operating in Abu Dhabi, expecting to grow to tens of thousands by 2030 [3]. - Tesla and Waymo are accelerating their city launch plans, with Tesla obtaining a TNC license in Arizona and completing self-certification in Nevada. Waymo has updated its expansion to include cities like Houston and Orlando [3]. - The report recommends investing in Xiaoma Zhixing (PONYO), Horizon Robotics-W, and XPeng Motors-W, while suggesting to monitor Tesla, Qianli Technology, Didi Global, Uber, Cao Cao Mobility, and Ruqi Mobility [3]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The report notes a recent market performance of -7% for the automotive sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. - **Company Performance**: Xiaoma Zhixing and WeRide are highlighted for their strong revenue growth and operational advancements in the Robotaxi sector [3]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests a focus on domestic companies with high revenue growth and rapid commercial progress, alongside international players expanding their operations [3].