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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250529
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:42
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract 2506**: Pre-settlement price was 2713, opening price 2695, highest price 2705, lowest price 2661, closing price 2662, down 51 or -1.88%, with a trading volume of 16842 and an open interest of 22280, a decrease of 5208 [7] - **Contract 2507**: Pre-settlement price was 2899, opening price 2885, highest price 2908, lowest price 2869, closing price 2882, down 17 or -0.59%, with a trading volume of 138100 and an open interest of 173233, a decrease of 8957 [7] - **Contract 2508**: Pre-settlement price was 3542, opening price 3527, highest price 3566, lowest price 3503, closing price 3542, unchanged, with a trading volume of 67729 and an open interest of 154370, an increase of 3972 [7] - **Spot prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.10 yuan/jin, also unchanged [7] Operation Suggestions - Near-term contracts should focus on the basis. The current 07 basis is slightly higher than in 2022 and within the normal range, with limited over - or under - valuation of futures prices. If the decline during the rainy season is less than expected, there may be a slight rebound, but the operation space is narrow [8] - The main contract will gradually shift to the peak - season 08 contract. The current absolute price is at a historical low. Pay attention to whether the low point during the rainy season exceeds expectations. Off - market long - position holders need patience. In a generally bearish fundamental situation, the futures price trend may be a slow decline and sharp rise. After the rainy - season expectations are realized, consider the opportunity of call options for the peak season [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of April, the monthly inventory was about 1.329 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [9] - In April, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from March and the same period in 2024, ranking third in the past eight years [9] - From the three weeks up to May 16, the national chicken culling volume showed a trend of recovery after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than the previous two years. After a relatively weak culling in April, the culling volume recovered in the past two weeks. As of May 22, the average culling age was 532 days, 2 days earlier than the previous week and 4 days earlier than the previous month [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg - chicken farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, 06 contract basis, 08 - 09 spread, etc., with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [7][9][18]