Group 1 - The Meiyu season in China has fully commenced, with heavy rainfall expected in several provinces including Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui until June 23 [1] - Hunan province has initiated emergency measures due to strong rainfall starting from June 18, with significant impacts on local examinations and student safety [1] - The National Disaster Reduction Committee has activated a level four emergency response for severe flooding in Hunan, allocating 50 million yuan for disaster recovery efforts [1] Group 2 - In Hubei province, heavy rain is forecasted, with significant impacts reported in Enshi Prefecture, where over 100 households were relocated due to severe weather [2] - The Longdong Reservoir has been opened to release floodwaters, with peak inflow reaching 340 cubic meters per second, indicating proactive measures to manage water levels [2] - In Guangdong province, recovery efforts are underway after multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, with essential supplies delivered to affected areas and restoration of transportation routes [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the egg market, indicating that the negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released. The trend intensity is 0, suggesting a neutral view on the market [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,844 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 1.61%, and trading volume increased by 1,940 while open interest decreased by 17,690. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,652 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 0.97%, and trading volume increased by 5,489 while open interest decreased by 3,773 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 712 (previous day: - 698), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 808 (previous day: - 833) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning and Hebei remained unchanged at 2.60 yuan/jin and 2.56 yuan/jin respectively. The spot price in Shanxi decreased from 2.70 yuan/jin to 2.60 yuan/jin, and in Hubei it decreased from 2.87 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price decreased from 2,316 yuan/ton to 2,303 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price increased from 2,880 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton, and the Henan pig price increased from 14.03 yuan/kg to 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view. A value of 0 represents a neutral view [1].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 2025 National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) is expected to be affected by significant rainfall, particularly in southern China, which raises concerns among students and parents about the impact on exam performance and logistics [1][2][3]. Weather Impact on Gaokao - The China Weather Network predicts a new round of rainfall in southern regions during the exam period, with 16 out of 31 provincial capital cities having a precipitation probability exceeding 30% [2][10]. - Historical data shows that cities like Guiyang, Guangzhou, and Haikou have the highest rainfall probabilities during the exam days, at 64.3%, 60.8%, and 55% respectively [9][10]. - The phenomenon of "it always rains during Gaokao" is not merely coincidental but is closely linked to China's unique climatic patterns, particularly the onset of the monsoon season in early June [14][15]. Climatic Conditions - The summer monsoon significantly influences weather patterns in East Asia, leading to concentrated rainfall during the exam period, which coincides with the peak of the rainy season [15][17]. - The "plum rain season" in southern China, characterized by continuous rain and high humidity, aligns with the timing of the Gaokao, further contributing to the perception of frequent rain during exams [18][20]. Historical Context - Prior to 2003, the Gaokao was held in July, but high temperatures posed a greater risk to students than rainfall, leading to the decision to move the exam to June [20][21]. - Statistical analysis from 1981 to 2019 indicates that around 70% of provincial capitals maintain average maximum temperatures between 25-30°C during the exam days in June, making it a more suitable time compared to July when temperatures often exceed 30°C in 60% of cities [21][22][24]. Psychological Perception - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall, create a lasting impression on the public, reinforcing the stereotype of "Gaokao must rain" over time [25]. - Understanding the natural climatic patterns can help students and parents approach the exam with a more composed mindset, focusing on preparation rather than weather concerns [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Bullish [1][6][7] - L: Sideways [1][9][10] - PP: Sideways [1][12][13] - PVC: Sideways [1][15][16] - PX: Bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Bullish [1][21][22] - MEG: Bullish [1][24][25] - Glass: Bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Pullback [2][32][33] - Methanol: Rebound and Short [2] - Urea: Cautiously Long at Low Levels [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks rise, OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and the summer consumption peak is approaching, so the price is bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Oil price rebounds and warehouse receipt pressure decreases, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][6][7] - L: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slows down. Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver in the off - season, so it shows a sideways trend [1][9][10] - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term [1][12][13] - PVC: Supply increases, demand is weak in both domestic and foreign markets, and there are multiple negative factors, so the price still has a risk of further decline [1][15][16] - PX: Profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. It follows cost fluctuations and is bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Although there is a plan for new capacity in June, downstream demand is relatively good and inventory is decreasing. It is bullish in the short term, but there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [1][21][22] - MEG: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing, so it is bullish in the short term [1][24][25] - Glass: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and demand in the medium term shrinks. In the short - term off - season, the spot market is weak, and the price is bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. The cost center moves down, so the price is bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Supply increases slightly, and the price corrects within a range [2][32][33] - Methanol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities [2] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, but there are some positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend [2] - Asphalt: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.95%. SC had no quote during the Dragon Boat Festival [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase in July meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks rise due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Global oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as trade wars and new energy, supply is in excess, and the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors, and SC is expected to be in the range of [465 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the PG main contract closed at 4036 yuan/ton, down 1.68% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil increased during the holidays, and the fundamentals of LPG improved. Downstream PDH operating rate increased, and port inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG is over - valued, so it is bearish. After the holiday, it may gap up. Temporarily wait and see, and go short at high levels after risk release. PG is expected to be in the range of [4080 - 4150] [8]. L - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slowed down, and the North China basis was 90 (up 55 month - on - month) [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 30 - 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver. The short - term decline space is limited, but there is a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [6900 - 7050] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the East China drawstring basis was 180 (up 38 month - on - month) [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In June, new capacity is concentrated, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to be weak and sideways, with a possible buffer increase at the beginning of the month [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is high pressure from new device production, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [6800 - 6950] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The Changzhou basis was - 84 (up 10 month - on - month), and warehouse receipts continued to decline [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance decreases, supply increases, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to cost collapse, device production expectations, and export uncertainties, the price still has a risk of further decline. Go short on rebounds. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4850] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 6900 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6618 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. The inventory decreased in April but is still high. In May, the fundamentals continued to improve, and it is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4940 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are many device maintenance and a plan for new capacity in June, the demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing. However, there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4830]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. MEG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4488 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4349 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4350 - 4430]. Continue to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price broke through support, the basis fluctuated slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and the decline in real - estate completion has expanded, so the medium - term demand for glass shrinks. In the short - term off - season, enterprises and traders reduce prices to clear inventory, and the cost center moves down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [970 - 1000], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price was weak, the basis was low, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the number of forecasts decreased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is insufficient due to the weak glass market and the end of the photovoltaic installation peak. Inventory is high, and the cost center moves down [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1210], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda was stable, the futures price rose at a low level, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly as the capacity utilization rate rises. The profit of the alumina industry improves, and the inventory of caustic soda decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price corrects within a range, and SA is expected to be in the range of [2400 - 2450] [2][33]. Methanol - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities. MA is expected to be in the range of [2220 - 2280] [2]. Urea - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure remains, but there are positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period in July and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend, and a strategy of going long at low levels and shorting at high levels can be adopted. UR is expected to be in the range of [1780 - 1820] [2]. Asphalt - **Strategy Recommendation**: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3560] [2].

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...