Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar season. Currently, many institutions expect Brazil and India to increase production, leading to an overall increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus [6]. - In China, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was low. Although the current import volume is relatively low, with the recent issuance of import licenses, there may be a surge in imports in Q3 [6]. - Given the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a short - term bearish view is recommended for Zhengzhou sugar futures [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus - Multiple institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [4]. - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season [5]. - Multiple institutions expect India's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [6]. - In China, the sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production is expected to slightly increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. Price Information - As of the first half of May, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.99 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [6]. - From the first to the fourth week of May, Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year decrease of 779,800 tons or 23.15%. The number of waiting ships at ports increased [6]. - Currently, many institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. - India's Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for June 2025 is 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons [6]. - The NFCSF expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption needs in key months from October to November 2025 [6]. - In April, China's cumulative sugar sales ratio was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [6]. - At the end of May, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 6,025 yuan/ton, Guangxi Sugar - making Group quoted between 6,090 - 6,190 yuan/ton, Yunnan Sugar - making Group quoted between 5,880 - 5,920 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,360 - 6,880 yuan/ton. The inventory demand for the summer consumption peak is not obvious, and the overall spot trading is average [6]. - The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread in Brazil is 2.62, with minor fluctuations [6]. - The net long position of CFTC has not changed much recently [6]. - The import profit has increased [6]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Export Availability - According to the USDA's May global supply - demand report, global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million metric tons. The increase in production in Brazil and India will offset the decrease in the EU. Exports are expected to decline mainly due to reduced shipments from the EU and Thailand. Ending inventory is expected to increase mainly because of India and China [9]. - Brazil: Due to favorable weather, production is expected to increase by 1 million tons to a record 44.7 million tons. The sugar - making ratio will drop from 51% in the 2024/25 season to 49%. Sugar consumption will slightly decline, and exports will increase due to increased production [9]. - India: Due to favorable weather and expanded planting area, production is expected to surge by 25% to 35.3 million tons. The growth of the food service industry will drive up sugar consumption, and the increased supply will boost both exports and inventory [9]. - Thailand: An increase in sugarcane production and sugar extraction rate will drive a 2% increase in production to 10.3 million tons. The slowdown in demand from export - oriented food processing enterprises will slow down consumption growth. Facing competition from major exporters like Brazil, exports are expected to decline, and inventory will remain flat [9]. - China: The expansion of sugarcane planting and improved growth conditions for sugar beets are expected to increase production by 500,000 tons to 11.5 million tons. Despite domestic production growth, imports need to be increased to balance supply and demand. Consumption and exports remain stable, and inventory will increase as consumption slowly recovers [9]. - EU: A 10% reduction in sugar beet planting area in major producing regions such as France and Germany will lead to a 9% decline in total production to 15 million tons. Imports will increase due to reduced production, exports are expected to decline, and consumption and ending inventory will remain basically the same [9]. Regional Sugar Production and Supply - Demand Details - Brazil: An analysis by JOB Economics and Planning predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2025/26 season will remain at the 2024/25 season's level of 35.1 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons, close to the record in the 2023/24 season. This growth is due to an increased sugar - making ratio, but the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to decline by 1.45% to 673 million tons [22]. - India: As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, there were 19 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 4. The crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.655 million tons or 11.44%. Sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 million tons or 18.33% [28]. - Thailand: As of March 23, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 91.6207 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9598 million tons or 12.2%. The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.61%, a year - on - year increase of 0.27%. The sugar extraction rate was 10.888%, a year - on - year increase of 0.227%. Sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% [36]. - United States: The U.S. sugar supply - demand balance shows changes in various indicators such as beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2019/20 to 2025/26 [41]. China's Sugar Market - China's sugar market shows data on single - month sugar sales, industrial inventory, single - month sugar production, cumulative sales - to - production ratio, monthly imports, and import prices [44][46].