2025/2026榨季全球食糖预期供应过剩 今年下半年以来，白糖价格持续走弱，当前市场已进入新旧糖转换阶段。受大量进口加工糖冲击，新糖 价格直接下探至国内制糖成本线。 国际糖业组织（ISO）最新预测显示，受产量增长推动，预计2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应将过剩163万 吨。具体来看，该榨季全球糖产量预计同比增长3.15%，达到1.8177亿吨；而消费量预计仅增长0.6%， 至1.8014亿吨。此外，2024/2025榨季全球食糖预计将出现292万吨的供需缺口。 巴西方面，10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，较去年同期增长14.34%；糖产量为 206.8万吨，同比增长16.40%。尽管该地区甘蔗ATR（总可回收糖分）显著低于往年同期水平，但制糖 比大幅提升有效弥补了这一不足。截至目前，本榨季累计制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%提高 3.38个百分点，进一步支撑了全球食糖整体增产格局。 印度方面，维持食糖增产预期。据印度糖厂协会（ISMA）数据，2025/2026榨季食糖总产量预计为3435 万吨。若扣除用于乙醇生产的340万吨食糖，该榨季食糖净产量预计为3095万吨。 ...

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国食糖进口数量为75万吨，同比增长39%，进口金额为3.16亿美 元，同比增长8.4%。 近一年中国食糖进口情况统计图 上市企业：中粮糖业（600737），广农糖业（000911） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国食糖行业市场全景评估及投资前景规划报告》 ...

10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，同比增长14.34%；制糖比为46.02%，较去年同期的45.91%上升0.11个百分点；产糖量为206.8万吨， 同比增长16.4%。截至10月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为55602.9万吨，同比下降1.97%；制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%上升3.38个百 分点；产糖量为3808.5万吨，同比增长1.63%。实际产量数据和市场预期基本一致，丰产仍在榨季末期延续。 需要注意的是，制糖比相比前期有所下滑，市场担忧制糖比快速下滑对整体产量的影响。目前市场普遍预期2025/2026榨季巴西中南部地区糖产量将在4050 万～4150万吨之间，维持丰产格局。展望2026/2027榨季，更多甘蔗或转向乙醇生产，预计巴西中南部地区糖产量回落至4000万吨附近。此外，圣保罗地区 持续干旱，可能影响2026/2027榨季甘蔗生物量积累，需持续跟踪。 [巴西丰产带来高出口] 受干旱天气和宿根蔗经历火灾的影响，巴西2025/2026榨季前期显示甘蔗质量不佳，但是被不断创纪录的超高制糖比所弥补。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）发布的巴西2025 ...

据外媒报道，11月17日印度的甘蔗压榨季正在进行中全国制糖企业联合会(NFCSF)的首份双周报显示， 目前共有325家糖厂开始压榨作业，而去年同期为144家。甘蔗压量已达到1280万吨，高于去年同期的 910万吨。 据外媒报道，11月17日国际糖业组织(ISO)周预测在产量增加的推动下，全球2025/26年度糖市将供应过 剩163万吨。该政府间机构在季度报告中称，预计2025/26年度糖产量增长3.15%，至1.8177亿吨，消费 量仅增长0.6%，至1.8014亿吨。 海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，中国10月食糖进口量为75万吨，同比增长39%。中国1-10月食糖进 口量为390万吨，同比增加14%。 机构观点 消息面 中原期货： 基本面看，供应端压力持续显现，国际方面巴西食糖产量维持高位，印度及泰国产量预期良好；国内新 榨季估产上调至1170万吨，广西甘蔗长势良好且开榨延期对现货形成压力。当前价格已跌破前期震荡区 间下沿，短期或测试5430-5450支撑区域，若有效下破则可能进一步探向5400关口，建议观望为主并关 注产区开榨进度变化风险。 光大期货： 原糖方面，巴西最新双周压榨数据发布，产糖量环比 ...

Core Insights - The Guangxi region is actively developing the Western Land-Sea New Corridor as a key project for open development, aiming to create the fastest, best-serviced, and most cost-effective connection between China and ASEAN [4] - The corridor is transforming inland areas into open frontiers and injecting strong momentum into regional coordinated development [4] Infrastructure Development - The construction of the Pinglu Canal, a major project within the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, is in a critical phase, with over 83% of the investment completed and expected to be operational by 2026 [5] - A comprehensive transportation network is being established, featuring 61 land routes, 96 container shipping routes from Beibu Gulf Port, and an integrated logistics system connecting air, land, and sea [6] Port and Logistics Enhancement - Beibu Gulf Port has expanded its capabilities with 119 berths for vessels over 10,000 tons and has implemented integrated sea-rail transport reforms, improving operational efficiency by approximately 30% [7] - The port's cargo throughput is projected to grow from 296 million tons in 2020 to 450 million tons by 2024, with container throughput expected to reach 9.02 million TEUs [8] Digital Transformation - The first automated sea-rail intermodal container terminal in the country has been established at Qinzhou Port, increasing operational efficiency by about 30% and reducing labor needs by 90% [9] - Innovations in customs clearance at the Youyi Pass have enabled a "15-second card pass" system, enhancing cross-border trade efficiency [10] Economic Corridor Development - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor is facilitating the growth of key industries such as new energy, green chemicals, and advanced manufacturing, with several major projects exceeding 10 billion yuan in investment [11] - The corridor has significantly boosted trade, with cumulative import and export trade exceeding 3.2 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11] Future Goals - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, Guangxi aims to further enhance the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, focusing on expanding internal and external openness and leveraging artificial intelligence for improved productivity [12]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Huazi Industrial has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 38.73%, indicating strong market interest and performance in the agricultural processing sector [1][2]. Company Performance - As of November 11, Huazi Industrial's stock price reached 9.60 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.655 billion CNY [1]. - The company has seen a net inflow of main funds amounting to 5.1038 million CNY, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Huazi Industrial reported a revenue of 415 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.94% to 57.2689 million CNY [2]. Stock Market Activity - The stock has been active on the market, appearing on the "龙虎榜" (Dragon and Tiger List) seven times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 1, where it recorded a net buy of -23.7619 million CNY [1]. - The stock has shown a 4.46% increase over the last five trading days and a 25.00% increase over the last 20 days [1]. Business Overview - Huazi Industrial, established on November 30, 1998, primarily engages in the processing and trading of agricultural products, with 86.17% of its revenue coming from grain deep processing products and 13.12% from sugar products [1][2]. - The company is classified under the agricultural and forestry industry, specifically in the agricultural product processing sector [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Huazi Industrial has distributed a total of 158 million CNY in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose 0.5%, at $60.05 and $63.95 per barrel respectively [6] - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 1.47%, aluminum up 1.14%, tin up 1.00%, zinc up 0.95%, lead up 0.46%, and nickel up 0.27% [6] - As of the close on October 10 at 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with soda ash up nearly 2%, caustic soda and pulp up over 1%, and some falling, like rapeseed meal and glass down nearly 1% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - The State Council issued measures to support private investment, increasing support for eligible projects [9] - Fed's Daly said the U.S. economy may face weak demand, and tariff - related inflation is under control [9] - In October, new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.621 million, up 18.5% year - on - year and 8.5% month - on - month, with cumulative sales from January to October at 12.058 million, up 29.9% [9] - China and the U.S. suspended relevant 301 investigation measures for one year starting from November 10, 2025 [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 10, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 113,000 tons, down 6.61% from the previous period and up 7.62% year - on - year [12] - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7062 million tons, down 0.47% from last Thursday [14] - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market [14] - In September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, down 5.45% from August and 1.78% year - on - year [14] - From November 10 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively [15] Metal Futures - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, down 1.05 percentage points month - on - month and 7.76 points year - on - year [17] - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 159,600 tons, with a slight increase [18] - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs added 79.015 tons, up 164.03% year - on - year, while gold consumption was 682.73 tons, down 7.95% [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [19] Black - Series Futures - From November 3 to 9, 2025, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7693 million tons, down 544,800 tons from the previous period [21] - In October 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 657,990 tons, down 26.52% month - on - month and 2.07% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 2.2047 million tons, down 5.16% from last week and up 8.52% year - on - year [24] - In the 2024 - 2025 season, China's soybean imports were 109.37 million tons, and exports were 80,000 tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% (AmSpec) and 12.28% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [27][28] - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased 4.44% month - on - month, and production increased 11.02% [29] - From November 3 - 9, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.21 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [30] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on guidelines for public fund thematic investment style management [33] - On Monday, A - shares showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.92%, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, with southbound funds net buying HK$6654 million, and the cumulative net buying exceeded HK$5 trillion [33] - China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11 [34] - Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou were notified to pay additional taxes on overseas investment income [35] - TSMC's October revenue was NT$367.473 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year [36] Industry - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year [38] - Market regulators issued compliance tips for the "Double 11" online promotion [38] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a joint document on new - energy power systems [38] - In October, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales increased by 18.5% [38] - As of October, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions showed a stable trend [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement [40] - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs to 15% [41] - Fed's Milan supported further interest - rate cuts [43] - San Francisco Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy may face demand decline [43] - U.S. container imports in October decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [43] - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest - rate hikes [43] - Japan plans to raise visa fees for foreign visitors in 2026 [44] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [45] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 1.65%, French CAC40 up 1.32%, and UK FTSE 100 up 1.08% [47] - Goldman Sachs is bullish on Japanese and Indian stocks [47] - Vanguard increased its position in Tesla and Amazon in Q3 [47] Commodities - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.95% year - on - year, while ETFs added 79.015 tons [48] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain contracts and adjust the minimum redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" [48] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures also rose [48] - London base metals all rose [50] Bonds - The domestic bond market strengthened, with the 30 - year Treasury futures up 0.22% [51] - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds [51] - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds again [52] - U.S. Treasury yields rose [52] Foreign Exchange - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed up 50 points at 7.1175 at 16:30 [54] - Three RMB exchange - rate indices reached new highs since April [54] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close [54] 4. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released on November 11, including Japan's September trade balance and UK's October unemployment rate [56] - There are also multiple events, such as central bank officials' speeches and industry forums [56]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China has released an analysis of the supply and demand situation for agricultural products in November 2025, indicating adjustments in production forecasts for corn and cotton while maintaining estimates for edible vegetable oil and sugar [1] Corn - The forecast for China's corn production in the 2025/26 season has been raised to 30 million tons from the previous estimate of 29.616 million tons, with imports for the 2024/25 season reduced to 1.83 million tons [1][2] - Factors contributing to the positive outlook include ample market supply, improved profitability for deep processing enterprises, and strong demand for feed consumption due to high livestock inventory [1] Soybeans - The soybean production forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly adjusted down to 20.9 million tons from 21.09 million tons, with good weather conditions in Northeast China leading to higher yields, while adverse weather in other regions has caused slight declines [2] - The total import of soybeans for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 10.937 million tons, with exports at 80,000 tons [2] Cotton - The cotton production forecast for 2025/26 has been increased to 6.6 million tons from 6.36 million tons, with the yield per hectare raised from 2,211 kg to 2,251 kg, reflecting favorable growing conditions [3] - As of November 6, the cotton picking progress reached 95.3%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a sales rate of 18.3%, an increase of 12.2 percentage points [3] Edible Vegetable Oil - The production estimate for edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 is 31.32 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons from the previous year, primarily due to higher production of soybean and peanut oil [5] - For 2025/26, the production estimate remains stable at 30.69 million tons, with slight reductions in peanut oil production due to lower yield expectations [6] Sugar - The total sugar production for the 2024/25 season is projected at 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous year, with an average price of 5,993 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 498 yuan or 7.7% year-on-year [6] - The forecast for the sugar supply and demand situation for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with ongoing monitoring of the impact of adverse weather conditions on sugar beet and cane production [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's sugar production is strong, and the sugar production in the northern hemisphere, especially in India, is expected to increase significantly, with a possible rise in exports that could drag down sugar prices. However, Brazil's strong export data in October provides support to the market and may limit price declines [5]. - Domestic sugar market: The domestic sugar market is oscillating at a low level, supported by cost expectations and stricter policies on the control of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Currently, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is slightly undervalued compared to the spot price and cost, but it is still higher than the dynamic cost of out - of - quota imported sugar. The upcoming start of sugar production in southern China may bring phased supply pressure [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - **Spot price and basis in production areas**: The spot market mainly trades sugar from the 2024/25 crushing season, with relatively high prices. Newly - listed beet sugar is slightly cheaper than old sugar, and trading volume is low. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in Guangxi [11]. - **Inter - month spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - **Domestic and foreign spreads**: Due to low import costs, the processing profit margin of out - of - quota imported sugar is evident, and the in - quota import profit is substantial, exceeding 1,000 yuan [18]. 3.2 Overview of Key Market Data 3.2.1 International Market - **Brazil**: Brazil's sugar production decreased on a two - week basis, but the sugar - to - cane ratio is high, and the cumulative sugar production exceeds market expectations. In October, Brazil's sugar exports increased significantly, but the appreciation of the real is unfavorable for exports. Thailand and India are about to start production, and expected production increases will bring pressure to the market [22][28][31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Production and consumption expectations**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to rise slightly. The October supply - demand report made no adjustments, but the impact of typhoons in southern sugar - cane producing areas from September to October should be noted [35][37]. - **Production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan**: The production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are turning bearish. The destocking speed in Yunnan has slowed down, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased, with the September import volume still expected to be higher year - on - year [39][41]. - **Import of syrup and pre - mixed powder**: Due to stricter policy control, the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is expected to decrease [43]. - **Downstream demand**: Downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either, and the downstream market lacks sufficient stimulation [46][49].

Core Insights - In October, the global food price index averaged 126.4 points, a decrease of 1.6% from the revised level in September, primarily due to ample global food stocks [1] Summary by Category Grain Prices - Major grain prices experienced declines: wheat price index fell by 1.0%, coarse grain price index decreased by 1.1%, and rice price index dropped by 2.5% [1] Meat Prices - The meat price index decreased by 2.0%, driven mainly by sharp declines in pork and poultry prices, while beef prices continued to rise [1] Dairy Prices - The dairy price index fell by 3.4%, attributed to sufficient stocks, limited import demand from various countries, and intense export competition [1] Sugar Prices - The sugar price index decreased by 5.3%, reaching the lowest level since December 2020, influenced by strong production trends in Brazil and expected increases in Thailand and India [1] Vegetable Oil Prices - The vegetable oil price index rose by 0.9%, reaching the highest level since July 2022, due to constraints from biofuel policies and delays in oilseed crop harvesting in the Black Sea region [1]