Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures prices have significantly dropped, breaking the 10,000 yuan per ton mark, reaching a low of 9,660 yuan per ton, the lowest since early July [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory of red jujube at 36 sample points is 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons week-on-week, representing a 2.69% rise and a 120.78% increase year-on-year [1] - The market is currently facing downward pressure on red jujube prices due to high inventory levels of old jujube and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the bearish trend [1] Price Influencing Factors - New Lake Futures analysis indicates that the recent price drop is influenced by several factors, including the arrival of new jujube and ongoing debates about production estimates, with bearish views suggesting a slight production decrease to 550,000-600,000 tons, while bullish views suggest a more significant decrease to 400,000-430,000 tons [1] - Although the current purchase prices are higher than last year, the processing costs for new jujube have decreased due to higher yield rates [1] - The pressure from old jujube inventory remains significant, with the ability to deliver old stock through transportation affecting the supply dynamics in the futures market [1] Market Focus and Future Outlook - The market's attention is currently on the new crop purchase prices and the expected production gap post-harvest, with mainstream purchase prices ranging from 6.5 to 8 yuan per kilogram [2] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to be significant, with the focus on production confirmation and quality of new jujube after harvest [2] - Long-term expectations lean towards a relatively limited production decrease this year, compounded by ample old stock and limited demand growth, leading to a generally pressured fundamental outlook [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - Summer seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, substituting for tonic products like red dates, leading to a seasonal off - peak in red date demand and slow inventory digestion [2] - New - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in production areas. Some orchards in Xinjiang are growing relatively well, and the expected reduction in production may be less than previously thought [2] - It is expected that the price of the main red date futures contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term. There will be high - temperature weather in Xinjiang in the next few days, and the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits should be continuously monitored. Technically, the MACD indicator extends downward, with pressure at 10,700 yuan/ton. Operationally, try short - selling on rallies and control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 10,490 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 132,308 lots, down 5,271 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,196 lots, up 2,665 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,912, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,448 [2] Spot Market - The unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] - The unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] - The unified price of red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - The price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.74 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 6.069 million tons, up 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, down 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,320 tons, down 110 tons from the previous week, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase [2] - The monthly red date export volume is 1,765,107 kg, down 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg, an increase of 1,765,107 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates at the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan [2] - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 36,480.43 tons, down 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, down 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 22, the temperature in Aksu was between 20 - 34°C, suitable for fruit - setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes [2] - On Tuesday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.77%. According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week [2]