Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures prices have significantly dropped, breaking the 10,000 yuan per ton mark, reaching a low of 9,660 yuan per ton, the lowest since early July [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory of red jujube at 36 sample points is 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons week-on-week, representing a 2.69% rise and a 120.78% increase year-on-year [1] - The market is currently facing downward pressure on red jujube prices due to high inventory levels of old jujube and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the bearish trend [1] Price Influencing Factors - New Lake Futures analysis indicates that the recent price drop is influenced by several factors, including the arrival of new jujube and ongoing debates about production estimates, with bearish views suggesting a slight production decrease to 550,000-600,000 tons, while bullish views suggest a more significant decrease to 400,000-430,000 tons [1] - Although the current purchase prices are higher than last year, the processing costs for new jujube have decreased due to higher yield rates [1] - The pressure from old jujube inventory remains significant, with the ability to deliver old stock through transportation affecting the supply dynamics in the futures market [1] Market Focus and Future Outlook - The market's attention is currently on the new crop purchase prices and the expected production gap post-harvest, with mainstream purchase prices ranging from 6.5 to 8 yuan per kilogram [2] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to be significant, with the focus on production confirmation and quality of new jujube after harvest [2] - Long-term expectations lean towards a relatively limited production decrease this year, compounded by ample old stock and limited demand growth, leading to a generally pressured fundamental outlook [2]

红枣产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10490 | 160 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 132308 | -5271 -35 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -20196 | 2665 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8912 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1448 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.74 | -0.06 广东红枣 ...