Core Points - The recent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel has increased the possibility of safe passage through the Red Sea, but conditions for international shipping to return are not yet mature [1][4] - The shipping industry has experienced significant fluctuations in freight rates due to the ongoing crisis, with rates peaking at over three times the normal levels before gradually declining [2][3] - Egypt has faced a substantial loss in revenue from the Suez Canal, amounting to approximately $9 billion over the past two years due to the crisis [2] Shipping Industry Impact - The Red Sea crisis has forced most container ships and some oil and bulk carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased fuel costs and lower turnaround efficiency for shipping companies [3] - The return of international shipping to the Red Sea is contingent upon several conditions, including the effective implementation of the ceasefire agreement and improved security in the region [4][6] - Analysts predict that even if the ceasefire holds, shipping companies may need to wait several months for guarantees against further attacks before considering a return to the Red Sea [6][7] Future Outlook - The likelihood of restoring the Red Sea shipping route before the Chinese New Year in 2026 is considered low, with some experts suggesting that a more realistic timeline could extend to the October 2026 Golden Week [6][7] - Major shipping alliances may opt for a phased return to the Red Sea to avoid congestion at ports, as vessels from different routes could arrive simultaneously [7]