2025.08. 25 本文字数：2378，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 近期，国际运输市场继续调整，多数航线运价下跌。 上海航运交易所8月22日发布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数为1415.36点，较上期下跌3.1%。关税 等不确定性加剧之下，供需基本面持续疲软，但也不乏逆势上扬的亮点——新兴市场正在快速补足， 并展现出强劲增速，和欧美航线跌跌不休相比，中东和澳新航线持续上涨。 欧美航线运价连跌逻辑不同 从航运价格来看，欧洲和美国航线均持续下跌。 其中，欧洲航线自6月13日下跌以来，持续至今。8月22日，上海港出口至欧洲基本港市场运价（海 运及海运附加费）为1668美元/TEU（20英尺集装箱），较上期下跌8.4%。 美国航线在7月11日出现上涨后，持续回调。8月22日，上海港出口至美西和美东基本港市场运价 （海运及海运附加费）分别为1644美元/FEU和2613美元/FEU，分别较上期下跌6.5%、3.9%。 从我国海关数据看，按美元计，7月中国对欧盟出口增速高达9.2%。按人民币计，前7个月，我国对 欧盟进出口同比增长3.9%。 "虽然运价有所下跌，但我们的业务量是上升的。"深圳堡森三通物 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月18日，安通控股(600179.SH)披露2025年半年报，公司上半年实现营业收入43.84亿元， 同比增长24.6%；归母净利润为5.12亿元，同比增长231.49%。2025年上半年，公司完成海运计费箱量 155.73万TEU，同比增长13.94%，完成集装箱吞吐量828.20万TEU，同比增长13.01%，内贸集装箱平均 运价较去年同期实现了较好的增长，对公司本报告期国内物流相关业务的经营效益产生了积极影响。国 际海运市场方面，受地缘政治局势等因素影响，部分航线运力供给紧张，引发运价高位宽幅震荡及集装 箱租船市场的繁荣，公司紧抓外贸市场集装箱船舶租金上行的机遇，继续通过对外期租模式将部分船舶 投入外贸集运市场，有效提升了国际业务收入。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Social Security New Regulations" is expected to enhance social security coverage, particularly in the flexible employment market, which is crucial for increasing social security participation [2][6]. - The express delivery market faces three main challenges in social security coverage: difficulty in headquarters management, unclear labor relationships, and low willingness of workers to participate in social security [6][22]. - The new regulations are anticipated to work in tandem with the "anti-involution" initiative, potentially leading to price recovery and restoration of the network ecosystem in the express delivery sector [6][37]. Summary by Sections Social Security New Regulations - The new regulations will take effect on September 1, 2025, allowing workers to request economic compensation from employers if they terminate contracts due to the lack of social security [2][21]. - The flexible employment market, with over 240 million workers, is seen as a key area for increasing social security coverage [6][22]. Challenges in the Express Delivery Market - The express delivery sector has a low social security payment rate, primarily due to management difficulties at headquarters, unclear labor contracts, and low participation willingness among workers [6][22][32]. - The report highlights that if the express delivery industry achieves full social security coverage, the cost per delivery could increase by approximately 0.06 to 0.10 yuan [6][38]. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is likely to see price adjustments as a response to the new regulations, which could lead to a more sustainable business model [6][37]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shentong, YTO, and Zhongtong for potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in the evolving market landscape [8][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The express delivery "anti-involution" policy has gained traction, with Guangdong Province leading the way in raising express delivery base prices, which is expected to spread nationwide. However, the aviation sector faces challenges in implementing similar price increases due to its high-end and optional nature, especially given the weak summer performance [2][6] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has emphasized the need to address "involution" in the aviation industry, particularly focusing on the low-price competition in business routes. The report suggests that the key to "anti-involution" in aviation lies in improving service differentiation and addressing the oversupply in business routes [6][18] Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The CAAC has made "anti-involution" a priority, with meetings held in June and July 2025 to address the issue. Since 2020, major airlines have reported continuous losses for five years, highlighting the necessity of this initiative [6][18] - Business travel demand remains weak, with expectations for recovery around mid-September. The oversupply in business routes, exacerbated by the shift of international capacity to domestic markets, has led to intense price competition among major airlines [6][18] - Recent improvements in service on key routes, such as Beijing-Shanghai, have shown positive responses in average ticket prices, indicating potential for further expansion of these practices [6][18] Passenger Traffic and Revenue - As of August 9, 2025, domestic passenger traffic showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, while international passenger traffic rose by 11%. However, domestic ticket prices faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [7] - The report notes that the average ticket price for domestic flights has decreased by 8.7% due to fuel surcharges, indicating ongoing revenue challenges despite slight improvements in passenger traffic [7] Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights a rebound in oil shipping rates, with the average VLCC-TCE rate increasing by 52.5% to $35,000 per day, driven by increased cargo from the Middle East [8] - The logistics sector is seeing improvements in coal transport volumes, with daily truck traffic at the Ganqimaodu port rising by 34 vehicles per day, suggesting a recovery in trade demand [8] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for airlines to shift from a focus on market share to differentiation in service to avoid the pitfalls of low-price competition. The recovery of business travel and the management of flight supply by the CAAC are seen as critical to improving the competitive landscape [66]

Core Insights - Brunei's maritime cargo volume is projected to increase from 33.8 million tons in 2023 to 38.6 million tons in 2024, driven primarily by oil and gas as well as downstream industry projects [1] - The number of air passengers in Brunei is expected to rise from 1.2 million in 2023 to nearly 1.5 million in 2024, attributed to an increase in flight routes and frequency [1] - The Brunei government is actively promoting the development of the transportation and logistics sector, aiming to establish the country as a regional international logistics hub [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 德翔海运 (DHL) has experienced a significant increase in stock price, rising nearly 4% and currently trading at 8.81 HKD, with a transaction volume of 31.35 million HKD [1] - The company expects to report a profit attributable to equity shareholders of approximately 180 million to 200 million USD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 220% to 255% [1] - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the rise in average freight rates and an increase in charter income due to a higher number of vessels rented out at elevated rates [1] Group 2 - 中信建投 (CITIC Securities) notes that the Trump administration has resumed the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has significantly altered the rhythm of freight rates [1] - During the trade war, the shipping rhythm on the China-US route became chaotic, with some goods being shipped early to avoid high tariffs, while only certain cross-border e-commerce products and exempt items could be shipped during peak tensions [1] - To circumvent tariffs, manufacturers with existing overseas factories have increased efforts to transfer intermediate products from China, leading to a substantial rise in regional shipping rates while trunk line freight rates have declined [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 德翔海运 (DHL) is experiencing a significant increase in stock price, with a rise of nearly 4% and a current price of 8.81 HKD, driven by strong financial performance expectations for the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a profit attributable to equity shareholders of approximately 180 million to 200 million USD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 220% to 255% [1] - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the rise in overall average freight rates and an increase in charter income due to a higher number of vessels rented out at elevated rates [1] Group 2 - 中信建投 (CITIC Securities) notes that the reintroduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has significantly altered the rhythm of freight rates [1] - During the trade war, the shipping rhythm on the China-US route became chaotic, with some goods being shipped early to avoid high tariffs, leading to a surge in regional shipping rates while trunk line freight rates declined [1] - The manufacturing sector, which already had factories overseas, has intensified efforts to reroute intermediate products from China to avoid tariffs, contributing to the fluctuations in shipping rates [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that shipping rates from Asia to the US are under significant pressure due to oversupply and geopolitical factors, with rates dropping 58% for the West Coast and 46% for the East Coast since June 1 [1] - Xeneta warns that shipping rates from Asia to the US will continue to decline into 2025 due to persistent oversupply, with more new ships expected to enter the market in the second half of the year [1] - Major Japanese shipping companies have expressed uncertainty about the market outlook for the second half of the fiscal year due to increasing trade uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The oversupply of global shipping capacity is leading companies to cancel sailings to maintain freight rates, particularly as demand from Asia to the US weakens and European demand remains sluggish [2] - A temporary rebound in shipping rates in late May and early June was short-lived, primarily driven by companies rushing to ship goods before potential tariff increases [2] - The US domestic logistics system is currently operating smoothly, indicating a significant reduction in cross-border shipping volumes [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea have inadvertently absorbed about 10% of global shipping capacity, providing some support for freight rates [3] - Some shipping companies are rerouting to avoid US ports due to tariffs, which extends travel times and reduces available shipping capacity [3] - While shipping volumes from Asia to the US are declining, there is a regional differentiation in freight rates, with rates to Europe and Latin America remaining relatively high [3]

Core Viewpoint - 德翔海运预计在截至2025年6月30日的六个月内，公司权益股东应占溢利将达到约1.80亿美元至2亿美元，较2024年同期的5630万美元大幅增加约220%至255% [1] Group 1 - 德翔海运股价在盈喜后高开逾6%，截至发稿时涨幅为6.34%，报9.06港元，成交额为375.99万港元 [1] - 溢利大幅增加的主要原因包括整体平均运费上涨以及租船租金收入增加 [1] - 租船租金收入的增加主要是由于以较高租金租出的船舶数量增加 [1]

Core Viewpoint - 德翔海运预计截至2025年6月30日的六个月内，公司权益股东应占溢利将达到约1.80亿美元至2亿美元，较2024年同期的5630万美元增长约220%至255% [1] Group 1 - The significant increase in profit is primarily due to the rise in overall average freight rates, consistent with market trends [1] - Additionally, the increase in charter income is attributed to a higher number of vessels being rented out at elevated rates [1]