从成本构成看，此次涨价涉及的费用种类多样，既有常见的基本费率、综合费率、旺季附加费、重型货 物附加费（HLC）等，也出现碳排放附加费、进口检验扫描费等较少见的新型费用。在一些价格构成 里，碳排放附加费约为15—20美元/TEU，"进口检验扫描费"每箱25欧元，有些船运公司则聚焦部分热 门航线，对所有箱型征收每柜500美元的普涨运费。此外，还有"加收每柜1000美元的'运费恢复'费""200 美元取消费"等。 往前回溯，2024—2025年，全球海运市场实际已出现多轮集中或大幅涨价。2024年11—12月，同样在淡 季期间，受美加增关税等多重因素推动，海运运价在淡季持续上调。2025年4月底，地中海航运、马士 基、达飞、赫伯罗特、ONE等航运巨头密集公布运价调整计划，核心围绕附加费增收与基础运价上 调，覆盖远东—北美、亚洲—地中海、亚洲—拉丁美洲等热门航线。更近的还有2025年11月中旬，亚欧 航线已提前出现一轮涨价潮。达飞、赫伯罗特、地中海航运等巨头同步上调亚欧航线基础运价 （FAK），参与船司数量众多。 从多方承压到分化应对 2025年12月中旬以来，国际海运市场掀起涨价潮。其中，北非航线40尺柜运价最高突 ...

根据最新数据，2025年11月，长荣海运实现营业收入新台币276.3亿元（约合人民币61.59亿元），同比 下降23.4%，环比增长1.1%。前11个月，长荣海运营业收入为新台币3483.4亿元（约合人民币776.52亿 元），同比下降18.1%。 据中国台湾媒体报道，长荣海运的年终奖金遥遥领先阳明海运和万海航运，平均落在10个月区间，并已 于当日到账。针对市场传出的年终奖金数字，长荣海运表示，其年终奖金一直是依据公司运营绩效和员 工个人表现核发。 在2025年前三季度，长荣海运实现营业收入新台币2933.8亿元（约合人民币654.00亿元），同比下降 15.6%；归属于母公司的净利润为新台币600.6亿(约合人民币133.89亿元)，或每股盈利新台币27.74元， 是台湾地区获利最高的航运公司。 2025年12月31日，中国台湾最大航运公司长荣海运发放年终奖，金额平均相当于10倍月薪。 据了解，2021年、2022年和2024年，长荣海运分别发放了相当于40倍、45倍和20倍月薪的年终奖。 长荣海运是台湾地区最大的航运公司，也是全球第七大集运公司。Alphaliner的最新数据显示，长荣海 运现有船队规模2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: December 15, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC No.: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows overall decline in production heat, marginal drop in property transactions, general downward trend in prices, and significant fall of the Baltic Dry Index. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][34] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.72 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 1.53 pct, and rebar output decreased by 10.53 tons. Inventory decreased by 1.88 tons [10] - Petroleum Asphalt: Operating rate decreased by 0.1 pct and remained at a low level [10] - Chemicals: PX and PTA operating rates remained flat [10] - Automobile Tires: All - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.57 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.65 pct [11] Demand - Real Estate: Property transaction area declined, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area continued to fall from a high level, and residential land transaction premium rate decreased [16] - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 720 million yuan compared to the previous week [16] - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 83,000 units, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 143,000 units [20] - Shipping Freight Rates: SCFI index increased by 7.79%, CCFI index increased by 0.29%, and BDI index dropped significantly by 19.14% [22] Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price dropped by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, and coking coal futures price fell by 11.72% to 1,028.5 yuan per ton [24] - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.96%, - 0.88%, and + 1.31% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price fell by 2.97% [25] - Agricultural Products: Overall prices continued to rise, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 0.96%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by - 1.02%, + 0.67%, + 0.34%, and + 2.02% respectively compared to the previous week [27] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai [30] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decreased [32] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [32] Summary - Overall production heat declined, and commodity prices fell. Short - term focus is on the implementation of aggregate incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [34]

除干散货海运费外，数据统计显示，原油、液化天然气（LNG）、铁矿石等大宗商品的海运运费都出 现反季节性上涨行情。近期，航运巨头集体涨价，包括地中海航运公司和法国达飞海运集团等均宣布12 月1日起上调多条国际航线的运费。 有分析也认为，本轮航司提涨的情况并非传统意义上的需求拉动，而是在地缘冲突、气候因素与船公司 经营策略共同作用下出现的"淡季涨价"现象。 地中海航运宣布自2025年12月1日起，将全面上调从远东港口至北欧、地中海、黑海等地区的运费：北 欧航线20尺柜、40尺柜分别上调至1860美元和3100美元；黑海航线则分别提升至2850美元和3900美元。 按往常规律，年末通常是需求走弱的季节，运费往往随之回落。然而在当前地缘风险频发、航线被迫绕 行之下，船舶在海上运输所花费的时间显著延长，有效运力被进一步压缩，从而推高了运价。 新华财经上海12月5日电受地缘政治冲突以及运力需求激增等因素影响，全球海运大宗商品的运费在淡 季持续攀升，波罗的海干散货运价指数（BDI）一度刷新2023年12月6日以来的最高水平，截至12月3日 连续15个交易日保持上涨态势，区间累计上涨幅度达40.15%。 海通期货分析师许易表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global freight market is experiencing a complex situation characterized by a "low-level rebound" in freight rates, with major shipping companies announcing rate increases for various international routes starting December 2025, driven by geopolitical conflicts, climate factors, and strategic adjustments by shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Increases Announced - Major shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced significant rate increases for various routes, with MSC raising rates for 20-foot and 40-foot containers to $1860 and $3100 respectively for Northern Europe routes, and CMA CGM setting rates up to $6300 for 40-foot containers from Far East to the Mediterranean and North Africa [2][3]. - The rate increases are not driven by traditional demand but are a result of external disturbances from geopolitical issues and climate change, alongside shipping companies' strategies to adjust capacity and restore profitability [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - The ongoing Red Sea crisis and drought-related restrictions in the Panama Canal have led to reduced shipping capacity and efficiency, with some routes experiencing delays of over 10 days [3][4]. - The expectation of tariffs in the U.S. market has prompted some companies to expedite shipments, temporarily increasing demand for shipping capacity [4]. Group 3: Impact on E-commerce and Trade - The rate increases are particularly impactful for the cross-border e-commerce sector, where rising costs are squeezing profit margins, with some routes seeing increases of over 40% in December [5][6]. - The logistics challenges, including port congestion and tight capacity, may lead to delays, stock shortages, and increased customer complaints, further complicating the operational landscape for businesses [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - If the current trend of rising freight rates continues into 2026, it could significantly affect low-margin industries such as furniture and toys, leading to potential shifts in global supply chains towards countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia [6]. - The shipping market may enter a phase of "high freight rate normalization," with sustained high rates likely to increase overall logistics costs, ultimately impacting consumer prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry for the European route is rated as "bearish" in 2025 [6] Core Viewpoints - The continuous development of the China-Europe Railway Express is changing the traditional China-Europe logistics pattern, evolving from a supplementary role to a competitive force against the shipping system, especially on European routes [10] - The substitution effect of the China-Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen, and the "asymmetric substitution" relationship between the two needs close attention, which may significantly impact European route cargo volume [5][48][49] Summary by Directory 1. Network Development Promotes Comprehensive Competitiveness Improvement - In 2024, the westbound channel's annual departures exceeded 11,000 trains, with container transport volume reaching 1.14 million TEUs, up 12.9% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, higher than the global shipping trade's 2.3% annual growth rate. As of 2024, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia-Europe shipping trade volume [11] - The "Three Channels and Five Ports" network layout provides systematic advantages. The westbound channel undertakes over 70% of the transport tasks, the middle channel plays a diversion role in winter, and the eastbound channel connects Northeast China with European Russia and Nordic countries. The newly opened west 2 channel saw explosive growth in 2024 [15] - The five ports have evolved into comprehensive hubs, and the "one-time inspection, full-line clearance" mode improves cross-border transport efficiency. The domestic and overseas networks cover many cities, shortening the delivery time to European inland areas by 7 - 10 days compared to shipping [18][23] 2. Differentiated Substitution Effect Driven by Price Factors - There is an asymmetric substitution relationship between the China-Europe Railway Express and shipping. When shipping prices rise sharply, high-value goods requiring high transport timeliness and supply chain stability will shift to the railway, as seen during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis [24] - The asymmetric nature lies in that the impact of rising shipping prices on the demand for the railway express is much greater than the impact of railway price adjustments on the return of shipping demand. This is due to the different core demands and cost - accounting logics of the two customer groups [29][31] 3. Multi - Dimensional Market Penetration and Structural Characteristics - In terms of cargo value, high - value products prefer the China-Europe Railway Express due to their high requirements for transport timeliness and reliability, while low - value commodities mainly use shipping. The proportion of high - value goods transported by railway in EU imports from China is about 5%, compared to 3% for low - value goods [32] - Geographically, the time - saving advantage of the railway express is more prominent for inland countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The difference in implicit costs between regions further strengthens the sensitivity of high - value goods to shipping price fluctuations [33][39] 4. Continuous Evolution of Structural Adjustment and Development Trends - The proportion of low - value goods in the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo structure is rising, while that of high - value goods is slightly falling, and the gap between them is narrowing. Geopolitical risks and falling shipping prices have slowed the shift of high - value goods to the railway [42] - The growth of low - value goods' railway transport demand is driven by policy subsidies, the "rail - sea - rail" multimodal transport mode of the west 2 channel, and the optimization of the railway express's operation mode [44] 5. Summary and Outlook - In 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo volume accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia - Europe trade volume, indicating it has become an important force affecting the China - Europe logistics pattern. Its relationship with shipping is shifting from simple complementarity to a "complementary - competitive" dynamic balance [48] - The substitution effect of the China - Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen. The railway express's internal structural adjustment will continue, and the market shares of high - and low - value goods will become more balanced [48] - When European route shipping prices rise by over 50%, 3 - 5% of the cargo is expected to shift to the railway, with high - value goods' transfer ratio possibly reaching 8 - 10%. The China - Europe Railway Express's penetration in the Mediterranean coastal European inland areas will increase, and its unit transport cost is expected to decrease by 10 - 15% in the next three years [49]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong IPO market has been active, with several stocks showing significant gains, particularly Derxiang Shipping (02510.HK), which has seen a remarkable increase in its stock price since its listing on November 1, 2024, becoming a focal point in the sector [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Derxiang Shipping's stock price reached a closing price of HKD 9.13 on November 13, 2025, representing a cumulative increase of 174.8% since its listing, and an increase of 118% from its initial offering price of HKD 4.18 per share [2] - The company has a solid business layout and excellent performance, which has further consolidated its market-leading position [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Derxiang Shipping operated 49 routes, serving 22 countries and regions globally, with approximately 60 ports [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The shipping market experienced a price surge in May and June 2025, driven by concentrated demand for exports and tight port capacity, leading to a rapid increase in global shipping prices [3] - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have increased risks on existing shipping routes, forcing vessels to take longer alternative routes, which not only extended transit times but also raised operational costs such as fuel and labor, further supporting rising shipping prices [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Derxiang Shipping reported revenues of approximately USD 641 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, and a net profit of USD 189 million, a substantial year-on-year growth of 222.0% [4] - The gross profit margin improved from 8.7% in the same period last year to 19.8% [4] - The significant profit increase was attributed to rising average freight rates and an increase in the number of vessels rented at higher rates [5] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The young fleet structure of Derxiang Shipping has reduced maintenance costs and improved operational efficiency and fuel economy [5] - A high proportion of owned vessels has decreased reliance on the charter market, providing the company with greater operational flexibility and cost control capabilities, which is beneficial for further profit enhancement [5] Group 5: Resilience in Performance - Despite market fluctuations in the second half of 2025, Derxiang Shipping maintained strong performance, with revenues of USD 963 million in the first nine months, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.51% [6] - The company’s flexible market strategy, young fleet structure, and focus on the Asia-Pacific market have allowed it to sustain steady growth amid global market volatility [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11] Core Insights - The pricing standards for highways are determined by local governments, allowing flexibility based on regional conditions. Recent price increases have occurred mainly due to rising construction costs from new and expanded roads and significant debt pressures in certain provinces, particularly in the central and western regions. This debt pressure may continue to drive regional price increases, potentially enhancing the revenues of highway operators in those areas. However, the national policy aims to reduce logistics costs, leading to discounts for truck traffic, which puts continued pressure on actual pricing standards. Therefore, large-scale price increases for existing road assets remain challenging [2][6][58] Summary by Sections Highway Pricing Determination - Highway pricing is set by local governments, with operational highways requiring approval from the transportation and development commissions, and government-funded roads needing additional approval from the finance department. The core principle for setting prices is to ensure reasonable returns based on factors like investment recovery, local price indices, and traffic volume [20][23] Scenarios for Price Increases - Price increases primarily occur in two scenarios: 1) New roads and expansions raise construction costs, necessitating price adjustments to ensure reasonable returns; 2) Debt pressures in certain provinces compel price increases. The financial strain on highways has led to a situation where toll revenues barely cover interest payments, with some provinces relying heavily on highway revenues for local government finances [29][38][45] Challenges for Large-Scale Price Increases - Despite the potential for regional price increases driven by debt pressures, the overarching national policy promotes lower logistics costs. Many provinces have implemented discount schemes for truck tolls to attract traffic, resulting in sustained pressure on actual pricing standards. Thus, large-scale price increases for existing road assets are unlikely [49][52][58] Passenger Transport Trends - Domestic passenger transport demand is recovering, with a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 20% increase in international passenger volume as of November 7. The domestic passenger load factor improved by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, while international load factors increased by 5.1 percentage points [61][67] Maritime Transport Insights - The average VLCC-TCE rate decreased by 16.4% to $95,000 per day, while the SCFI index for foreign trade shipping dropped by 3.6% to 1,495 points. However, domestic shipping rates for bulk commodities have shown strength, indicating a mixed outlook for maritime transport [7][16] Logistics Sector Developments - The volume of postal express deliveries increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and air freight prices have risen due to the peak season for cross-border e-commerce. The average daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port increased, reflecting improved demand for coal transportation [8][17]