Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry for the European route is rated as "bearish" in 2025 [6] Core Viewpoints - The continuous development of the China-Europe Railway Express is changing the traditional China-Europe logistics pattern, evolving from a supplementary role to a competitive force against the shipping system, especially on European routes [10] - The substitution effect of the China-Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen, and the "asymmetric substitution" relationship between the two needs close attention, which may significantly impact European route cargo volume [5][48][49] Summary by Directory 1. Network Development Promotes Comprehensive Competitiveness Improvement - In 2024, the westbound channel's annual departures exceeded 11,000 trains, with container transport volume reaching 1.14 million TEUs, up 12.9% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, higher than the global shipping trade's 2.3% annual growth rate. As of 2024, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia-Europe shipping trade volume [11] - The "Three Channels and Five Ports" network layout provides systematic advantages. The westbound channel undertakes over 70% of the transport tasks, the middle channel plays a diversion role in winter, and the eastbound channel connects Northeast China with European Russia and Nordic countries. The newly opened west 2 channel saw explosive growth in 2024 [15] - The five ports have evolved into comprehensive hubs, and the "one-time inspection, full-line clearance" mode improves cross-border transport efficiency. The domestic and overseas networks cover many cities, shortening the delivery time to European inland areas by 7 - 10 days compared to shipping [18][23] 2. Differentiated Substitution Effect Driven by Price Factors - There is an asymmetric substitution relationship between the China-Europe Railway Express and shipping. When shipping prices rise sharply, high-value goods requiring high transport timeliness and supply chain stability will shift to the railway, as seen during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis [24] - The asymmetric nature lies in that the impact of rising shipping prices on the demand for the railway express is much greater than the impact of railway price adjustments on the return of shipping demand. This is due to the different core demands and cost - accounting logics of the two customer groups [29][31] 3. Multi - Dimensional Market Penetration and Structural Characteristics - In terms of cargo value, high - value products prefer the China-Europe Railway Express due to their high requirements for transport timeliness and reliability, while low - value commodities mainly use shipping. The proportion of high - value goods transported by railway in EU imports from China is about 5%, compared to 3% for low - value goods [32] - Geographically, the time - saving advantage of the railway express is more prominent for inland countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The difference in implicit costs between regions further strengthens the sensitivity of high - value goods to shipping price fluctuations [33][39] 4. Continuous Evolution of Structural Adjustment and Development Trends - The proportion of low - value goods in the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo structure is rising, while that of high - value goods is slightly falling, and the gap between them is narrowing. Geopolitical risks and falling shipping prices have slowed the shift of high - value goods to the railway [42] - The growth of low - value goods' railway transport demand is driven by policy subsidies, the "rail - sea - rail" multimodal transport mode of the west 2 channel, and the optimization of the railway express's operation mode [44] 5. Summary and Outlook - In 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo volume accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia - Europe trade volume, indicating it has become an important force affecting the China - Europe logistics pattern. Its relationship with shipping is shifting from simple complementarity to a "complementary - competitive" dynamic balance [48] - The substitution effect of the China - Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen. The railway express's internal structural adjustment will continue, and the market shares of high - and low - value goods will become more balanced [48] - When European route shipping prices rise by over 50%, 3 - 5% of the cargo is expected to shift to the railway, with high - value goods' transfer ratio possibly reaching 8 - 10%. The China - Europe Railway Express's penetration in the Mediterranean coastal European inland areas will increase, and its unit transport cost is expected to decrease by 10 - 15% in the next three years [49]

来源：财华社Finet 近期港股新股市场表现活跃，多只标的涨幅亮眼。其中德翔海运（02510.HK）自2024年11月1日登陆港交所后，便持续获 得资金追捧，成为板块焦点。 上市满一年之际，公司股价多次刷新历史新高，截至2025年11月13日收盘报9.13港元，累计涨幅高达174.8%，较4.18港元/ 股上市发行价，涨幅为118%。 该股强劲表现背后，主要得益于公司扎实的业务布局与优异的业绩表现，进一步巩固了其市场领先地位。 资料显示，德翔海运的业务持续深耕亚太区域市场，同时积极拓展中长途及远洋市场。截止2025年6月30日，该公司运营49 条航线，服务范围横跨全球22个国家和地区，挂靠约60个港口。 运力方面，截至2025年6月底，德翔海运营运船舶总数达47艘，总运力140,726TEU，其中自有船舶34艘，平均船龄仅3.8 年，远低于行业同类企业。 作者：瓶子 另一方面，中东地区局势持续紧张，原有航线通行风险加剧，船舶被迫绕行更长的替代航线，航程延长不仅增加了运输时 间，更推高了燃油、人力等运营成本，进一步助力海运价格走强。 受益于市场运价上涨与自身运营优化，德翔海运业绩迎来爆发式增长。 2025年上半 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 如何看待高速提价：涓滴之水，前路犹长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 高速公路的收费标准由各省的交通厅、发改委以及财政厅自主确定，使得各个省份可以根据当 地情况灵活调整收费标准。近年来高速提价主要发生在两种场景：1）新修以及改扩建推升建造 成本，提价保证合理回报；2）部分省份债务压力较大，倒逼路产提价。考虑中西部省份高速整 体债务风险压力较大，未来债务压力或持续倒逼区域性提价落地，有望增厚提价省份高速公路 经营主体的收益。然而国家大力倡导降低物流成本方针不变，多数省份相继推出 ETC 打折等优 惠方式吸引货车流量，"以价换量"的范式下，行业实际收费标准持续承压，收费政策变动主要 以变相降价为主，客观而言针对存量路产大规模提价难度仍然较大。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级 ...

Core Insights - Recent US-China trade negotiations have shown positive signals, leading to a strong recovery in the foreign trade market, with ports like Yantian Port reflecting this market momentum [1][3] Group 1: Port Activity and Trade Volume - Yantian Port, as one of the largest single container terminals globally, handles over one-third of Guangdong's foreign trade import and export volume, with more than a quarter of the nation's exports to the US [3] - On October 31, the loading and unloading volume of US-bound vessels at Yantian Port accounted for nearly 60% of the total port operations for that day, indicating a surge in orders from US clients [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with the growth rate in the third quarter rising to 6%, marking eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: Multi-Modal Transport Development - Yantian International has been actively expanding its multi-modal transport network, creating a comprehensive logistics system that integrates international shipping, railways, and feeder services, providing one-stop logistics solutions for inland foreign trade enterprises [4] - The "Liling-Yantian Port" container rail-water intermodal route has been recognized as one of the top ten national brand routes, highlighting its significance in the logistics network [5] Group 3: Automotive Export Growth - The Shenshan Xiaomo Port has achieved a record high in automobile exports, with nearly 17,000 vehicles exported in October, representing a year-on-year increase of over 170% and a month-on-month surge of 183% [6] - The port's strategic location and efficient collaboration with leading automotive manufacturers have contributed to a stable and substantial core cargo source [6] Group 4: Infrastructure and Future Outlook - Yantian Port operates 20 deep-water berths efficiently, while Xiaomo Port is enhancing its roll-on/roll-off terminal facilities, with plans for new berths to accommodate larger vessels [10] - As US-China economic cooperation deepens and the holiday season approaches, Yantian Port is expected to see continued growth in foreign trade, with plans to increase international shipping routes and improve service efficiency [10]

Group 1 - The company, 德翔海运, reported a revenue of $963 million for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.51% [1] - The shipping volume for the same period was 123.1 TEU, showing a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Compared to the same period in 2024, both revenue and shipping volume remained stable as of September 30, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CGL Logistics Holdings Limited, also known as 华洋航运, has filed for an IPO with the SEC to raise $15 million by offering 3.75 million shares at $4 each, aiming to list on the NASDAQ under the ticker "CGL" [1]. Company Overview - 华洋航运 is an international freight forwarding service provider headquartered in Hong Kong, established in 1999. The company has developed a diversified service system covering sea freight, air freight, express delivery, and specialized logistics [3]. - Core services include: - Sea freight services offering comprehensive international shipping solutions, including full container and less-than-container load services. - Air freight services providing fast international air logistics. - Express services in collaboration with international express giants for door-to-door document and parcel delivery. - Amazon FBA first-mile services, offering warehousing, labeling, customs clearance, and transportation for sellers on the Amazon platform. - An operational network established through subsidiaries in major cities in mainland China, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xiamen, and Qingdao [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending September 30, 2023, and 2024, the company reported revenues of $20.87 million and $31.81 million, respectively, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.4% [7][8]. - Net income for the same periods showed a significant turnaround, with a loss of $0.755 million in 2023 and a profit of $0.2096 million in 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [7][8]. - Total costs and expenses increased from $22.04 million in 2023 to $29.74 million in 2024, with the cost of revenues rising by 54.2% [8].

Core Points - The recent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel has increased the possibility of safe passage through the Red Sea, but conditions for international shipping to return are not yet mature [1][4] - The shipping industry has experienced significant fluctuations in freight rates due to the ongoing crisis, with rates peaking at over three times the normal levels before gradually declining [2][3] - Egypt has faced a substantial loss in revenue from the Suez Canal, amounting to approximately $9 billion over the past two years due to the crisis [2] Shipping Industry Impact - The Red Sea crisis has forced most container ships and some oil and bulk carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased fuel costs and lower turnaround efficiency for shipping companies [3] - The return of international shipping to the Red Sea is contingent upon several conditions, including the effective implementation of the ceasefire agreement and improved security in the region [4][6] - Analysts predict that even if the ceasefire holds, shipping companies may need to wait several months for guarantees against further attacks before considering a return to the Red Sea [6][7] Future Outlook - The likelihood of restoring the Red Sea shipping route before the Chinese New Year in 2026 is considered low, with some experts suggesting that a more realistic timeline could extend to the October 2026 Golden Week [6][7] - Major shipping alliances may opt for a phased return to the Red Sea to avoid congestion at ports, as vessels from different routes could arrive simultaneously [7]

Group 1: Logistics - The logistics industry is expected to undergo a paradigm shift towards high-quality development, driven by policy changes and the "anti-involution" movement, which aims to ensure the rights of delivery personnel and improve profitability [4][24][30] - The logistics sector is entering a new phase of overseas expansion, with companies like Jitu Express and Jiayou International transitioning from initial stages to more advanced operations, focusing on management and capacity exports [4][8][35] Group 2: Aviation - The aviation industry is poised for recovery, benefiting from a resurgence in business travel demand since September, leading to improved revenue and cost dynamics [9][51] - The supply side is tightening, with low aircraft deliveries expected in 2025 and high capacity utilization rates, indicating a potential for revenue and cost resonance in the industry [9][51] Group 3: Shipping - The shipping sector is influenced by both seasonal and non-seasonal factors, with a focus on oil transportation due to OPEC+ production adjustments and the expected positive impact of new projects in the dry bulk segment [10][20] - The container shipping market is facing tariff disruptions, but demand is anticipated to rise due to proposed measures from the 301 investigation, which may boost feeder vessel demand [10][20] Group 4: Highways - Highway companies are regaining attractiveness in terms of valuation and dividend yield, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend characteristics [11][20] - The widening gap between highway company dividend yields and ten-year government bond yields suggests a return to a high cost-performance ratio for these assets [11][20]

Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have significantly impacted global shipping and trade dynamics, leading to increased costs and delays for consumers [1][3][12] - As a result of these tensions, countries like Mexico have emerged as new key trade partners for the US, marking a shift in global supply chains [3][5] - The situation has led to a surge in new ship orders for South Korean and Japanese shipyards, with a 20% year-on-year increase in orders [3][5] Group 1: Shipping Industry Impact - The US has imposed hefty fees on Chinese ships docking at American ports, potentially costing up to $1.2 million per vessel, which has forced Chinese shipping companies to redirect their services [5][7] - Chinese shipping giant COSCO is expected to incur an additional $2.1 billion in costs by 2026 due to these new fees, significantly affecting its profitability [7][9] - The retaliatory measures from China include a tiered port fee structure for US ships, escalating costs for American shipping companies [7][9] Group 2: Consumer and Trade Effects - Increased shipping costs are being passed on to American consumers, with prices for imported goods rising by 3% to 5% [9][12] - The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that a 15% increase in shipping costs could raise US inflation by 0.8% [9][12] - American farmers are particularly affected, with delays in shipping leading to higher prices for US soybeans compared to Brazilian alternatives, resulting in lost market opportunities [9][12] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Shifts - As shipping routes become congested and expensive, European ports like Hamburg and Rotterdam are experiencing increased activity, with container volumes rising significantly [11] - The China-Europe Railway Express has seen a 30% increase in freight volume, while shipping costs have decreased by 12% [11] - Major shipping companies are adapting by forming alliances to optimize routes and reduce costs, with COSCO collaborating with other firms to share resources [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]