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1月官方PMI数据快报
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 12:27
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a 0.8 pct month - on - month decline and below the five - year average, indicating that the current economic endogenous demand is insufficient and the recovery foundation is not yet solid. The PMI may continue to operate at a low level in February, and the real test of economic momentum will come after March [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Manufacturing Industry - **Price Index**: The purchase price index of major raw materials (56.1%) and the ex - factory price index (50.6%) both returned to the expansion zone for the first time in nearly 20 months. The upstream price increase was not fully transmitted downstream, and the profit repair of enterprises was under pressure [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand weakened synchronously. The production index remained in the expansion zone, while the new order index fell below the boom - bust line. The decline of the new order index was significantly greater than that of the new export order, and the gap between production and demand widened, with the momentum of domestic demand improvement slowing down [2]. - **Enterprise Size**: The differentiation of PMI among large, medium, and small enterprises intensified, indicating that large enterprises are more resilient, while small and medium - sized enterprises are significantly pressured [2]. Non - manufacturing Industry - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry PMI dropped significantly (- 4 pct) due to low temperatures and the approaching Spring Festival, becoming the main drag on the non - manufacturing industry [2]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry declined slightly (- 0.2 pct), and the new order of the non - manufacturing industry has been in the contraction zone for a long time, indicating weak domestic demand [2].