1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Seasonal effects dragged down manufacturing production and demand, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, falling below the boom - bust line. The new orders index on the demand side dropped 1.60 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index on the supply side dropped 1.10 percentage points to 50.60% [1]. - Changes in the international trade environment disrupted the growth of external demand. In January, the new export orders index was 47.80%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous value, while the import index was 47.30%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous value. Although the manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone rebounded, changes in import policies or rules in some international markets expanded the impact on China's product exports [1]. - Driven by the rise in commodity prices, the price side of the manufacturing industry continued to recover. The raw material purchase price index remained in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index rose above the boom - bust line, with the spread between the two widening by 1.3 percentage points to 5.50 pct [2]. - Non - manufacturing business slowed down, and the service industry was relatively stable. In January, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.2 percentage points. The construction industry's business climate declined due to weather and holiday factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PMI Presents Structural Highlights - The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.30%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, falling below the boom - bust line. The new orders index on the demand side and the production index on the supply side both declined. The slowdown in demand due to the approaching Spring Festival and the pre - placement of some production capacity led to a seasonal contraction in manufacturing production and demand [12]. - Among different industries, the high - tech manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, remaining at a relatively high level for two consecutive months; the equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, staying in the expansion range; the consumer goods industry and high - energy - consuming industries had PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% respectively [12]. 3.2 External Environment Disturbance - In January, the new export orders index dropped, while the import index rebounded. Although the manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone improved, changes in international market import policies or rules increased the impact on China's exports, and the probability of export disturbances and uncertainties remained [19]. 3.3 Price - end Recovery - Driven by rising commodity prices, the manufacturing price - end continued to recover. The raw material purchase price index remained in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index rose above the boom - bust line, with a wider spread. The current price recovery may be due to rising global commodity prices and previous policies to rectify "involution - style" competition, which may also be reflected in the next stage of PPI data. However, if raw material prices rise much faster than finished - product prices, it may put pressure on corporate profits [27][29]. 3.4 Attention to Corporate Business Vitality - In January, the PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises all declined. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising raw material prices and uncertain external demand, improving corporate prosperity is a key link for continuous economic recovery, which helps promote the upstream - downstream transmission of prices and stabilize and expand domestic demand [31]. 3.5 Non - manufacturing Business Climate Decline - The non - manufacturing business slowed down in January, with the non - manufacturing PMI at 49.40%, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.2 percentage points. Some industries in the service sector, such as monetary and financial services, capital market services, and insurance, had high market activity, while the real estate industry was weak. The service industry's business activity expectation index increased, indicating enhanced confidence [34]. - The construction industry was still in the contraction range. Affected by weather and holiday factors, the construction industry's business climate declined, with the business activity index dropping 4.00 percentage points from the previous value. The business activity index and new orders index both decreased significantly, and the business activity expectation index fell below the critical point, showing cautious expectations from construction enterprises [35]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - The domestic PMI data in January showed structural highlights. Although the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output index declined from the previous values, indicating a short - term slowdown in economic prosperity during the traditional off - season, there were still highlights such as the expansion of the production side, the leading role of new - energy industries, and positive expectations in the service industry [3][40]. - The recovery of the price index was another feature of the manufacturing PMI in January. Affected by rising commodity prices, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index both increased, which was conducive to improving corporate revenue and profit margins [3][40]. - Looking forward to February 2026, manufacturing production may continue to slow down due to the Spring Festival, but it will gradually recover after the holiday. The service industry in the non - manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from Spring Festival consumption, and its business climate is likely to continue to improve. Overall, the economy will maintain a weak recovery trend, and the bond market will continue to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [3][40].

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 400 points, while the Dow increased by 0.24% to 49,358.09 and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.89% to 6,856.40 [1] - Energy shares rose by 1.7%, while information technology stocks fell by 2.1% [1] Company Performance - Eli Lilly and Co. saw its stock jump approximately 10% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.54 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.67. The company's sales reached $19.3 billion, exceeding the consensus of $17.96 billion [2] Commodity Market - In commodity trading, oil prices increased by 0.4% to $63.46, while gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $4,909.70. Silver prices rose by 1.6% to $84.615, and copper prices fell by 3.2% to $5.8945 [3] European Market - European shares were mixed, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.03%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index fell by 0.09%. London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.85%, Germany's DAX slipped by 0.72%, and France's CAC 40 gained 1.01% [4] Asian Market - Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei surging by 0.78%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gaining 0.05%, China's Shanghai Composite rising by 0.85%, and India's BSE Sensex increasing by 0.09% [5] Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI remained unchanged at 53.8 in January, matching the revised reading from December and exceeding market estimates of 53.5. The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 53.0 in January from a preliminary level of 52.8 and up from December's reading of 52.7 [7] - U.S. crude stocks declined by 3.455 million barrels for the week ending January 30, compared to market estimates of a 2 million-barrel draw [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic prosperity level has declined, with both supply and demand weakening, but the internal structure shows significant differentiation. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling back into the contraction range, indicating weakened manufacturing repair momentum due to the combined effect of weakening demand and seasonal factors [3]. - Different enterprises and industries continue to show differentiated prosperity, with an overall downward trend. The prosperity indices of large, medium, and small enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. In terms of industries, high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing supported by industrial upgrading maintain resilience, while the basic raw materials industry has a low and declining prosperity, and the consumer goods industry's prosperity index has fallen below the boom - bust line [5]. - The service industry's prosperity hovers at a low level, and the construction industry's prosperity has significantly declined. The service industry's new order index, input price index, and sales price index have changed to different extents, and the construction industry has been affected by seasonal factors, with a sharp decline in new orders and business activity expectations [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Manufacturing Industry - **Demand**: The new order index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, falling below the boom - bust line again. The new export order decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, and the difference between new orders and new export orders narrowed to 1.4 percentage points, indicating a relatively larger decline in domestic demand. The backlog order index fell 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%, further confirming insufficient demand [4]. - **Production and Inventory**: The PMI production index in January was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, still above the boom - bust line. The production - operation activity expectation has declined but is still above the boom - bust line. The supplier delivery time has slightly decreased and is still in the expansion range. The finished - goods inventory index rose 0.4 percentage points to 48.6%, indicating a low - level improvement in inventory [4]. - **Price**: The raw material purchase price index rose 3 percentage points to 56.1% due to rising international commodity prices. The ex - factory price index rose 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, but the increase was significantly smaller than that of the purchase price index. The price scissors gap continued to widen, suppressing enterprises' purchasing willingness, and the enterprise purchase volume index fell 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, falling into the contraction range [5]. - **Enterprise Size**: The prosperity index of large enterprises fell 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%, still in the expansion range; the medium - sized and small - sized enterprises decreased to 48.7% and 47.4% respectively, remaining in the contraction range [5]. Service Industry - The service industry's prosperity index in January was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining stable at around 49.5% for three consecutive months. The new order index decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.1%, the input price index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.7%, and the sales price index increased by 0.8 percentage points to 48.9%. Industries such as monetary and financial services, capital market services, and insurance have higher business activity indices, while industries such as wholesale, accommodation, and real estate have business activity indices below the critical point [7]. Construction Industry - The construction industry's prosperity index dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, falling into the contraction range. Affected by seasonal factors, construction activities slowed down in January, demand dropped sharply, and business activity expectations became more cautious. The new order index decreased by 7.3 percentage points to 40.1%, and the business activity expectation index decreased by 7.6 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating that enterprises lack confidence in the industry's development [7].

Macroeconomic Overview - In November 2025, US durable goods orders improved with a month-on-month growth of 5.3%, up from a previous value of -2.1% [1] - Non-transportation durable goods orders increased by 0.4%, surpassing the previous value of 0.2% [1] - Excluding aircraft, non-defense durable goods orders rose by 0.4%, slightly below the previous value of 0.5% [1] - The FHFA house price index for November 2025 increased by 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4% [1] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for January 2026 dropped significantly to 84.5, down from 94.2, marking the lowest level since May 2014 [1] - The present situation index fell to 113.7, while the expectations index decreased to 65.1, indicating heightened concerns about the economic outlook and job market [1] Major Index Performance - For the week of January 26-30, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.72%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.21% [2] - The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.34%, with 7 out of 11 sectors showing gains, led by the S&P 500 Energy sector which rose by 3.88% [2] Earnings Reports - As of the reporting period, 33% of S&P 500 companies had released their earnings reports, with 75% exceeding expectations, slightly lower than the 82% in Q3 2025 [2] - The expected earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026 is projected to remain at 12% [2] Investment Products - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with the information technology sector comprising 57.87% of the index [3] - The top ten stocks in the index are high-quality technology companies [3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights that public fiscal expenditure in 2025 focused on livelihood, technology, and environmental protection, with total public budget revenue at 21,604.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% [2] - The government fund budget revenue was 5,770.4 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3% to 11,287.4 billion yuan [2] - Public fiscal income showed a negative growth primarily due to non-tax revenue, while tax revenue achieved positive growth, with major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) transitioning from negative to positive growth [3] - Public fiscal expenditure in the livelihood sector accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years, with a notable increase in technology spending [4] - The completion ratio for the national general public budget revenue was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion ratio was 96.8% [4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and new orders indices declining [8] - The production index fell by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, reflecting insufficient effective demand [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also decreased to 49.4%, with the construction sector experiencing a significant drop due to seasonal factors [10] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, primarily due to the decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10] Fund Research - The report notes that the public fund market experienced significant outflows, with a net outflow of 298.1 billion yuan from the ETF market, particularly from stock ETFs [12] - The average performance of equity funds showed a decline, with quantitative funds experiencing the largest drop of 1.10% [13] - New fund issuance increased, with 45 new funds launched, raising a total of 48.27 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market interest [14]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a 0.8 pct month - on - month decline and below the five - year average, indicating that the current economic endogenous demand is insufficient and the recovery foundation is not yet solid. The PMI may continue to operate at a low level in February, and the real test of economic momentum will come after March [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Manufacturing Industry - **Price Index**: The purchase price index of major raw materials (56.1%) and the ex - factory price index (50.6%) both returned to the expansion zone for the first time in nearly 20 months. The upstream price increase was not fully transmitted downstream, and the profit repair of enterprises was under pressure [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand weakened synchronously. The production index remained in the expansion zone, while the new order index fell below the boom - bust line. The decline of the new order index was significantly greater than that of the new export order, and the gap between production and demand widened, with the momentum of domestic demand improvement slowing down [2]. - **Enterprise Size**: The differentiation of PMI among large, medium, and small enterprises intensified, indicating that large enterprises are more resilient, while small and medium - sized enterprises are significantly pressured [2]. Non - manufacturing Industry - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry PMI dropped significantly (- 4 pct) due to low temperatures and the approaching Spring Festival, becoming the main drag on the non - manufacturing industry [2]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry declined slightly (- 0.2 pct), and the new order of the non - manufacturing industry has been in the contraction zone for a long time, indicating weak domestic demand [2].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing consolidation, with fluctuations in the context of equity market adjustments, and the focus is on the central bank's operations and liquidity conditions ahead of the Spring Festival [1] Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.18% at 112.06, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.03% to 108.25 [2] - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.252%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.8115% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.39%, with 194 convertible bonds dropping over 2%, while a few saw gains exceeding 2% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields decreased, with French yields down 0.9 basis points to 3.417% and German yields down 1.8 basis points to 2.838% [3] - In North America, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by 0.62 basis points to 4.237%, while 2-year yields fell by 2.85 basis points to 3.522% [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds were issued with yields below market estimates, with 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4719%, 1.5418%, and 1.9599% respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising by 3.7 basis points to 1.365% [5] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were reported at 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8%, indicating a decline in economic activity [6] Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the traditional strategy of "watching stocks or commodities to trade bonds" is failing due to commodity price volatility and increased demand for dividend insurance, leading to a "stock-bond co-temperature" [8] - Huachuang Securities notes that the January PMI's unexpected decline reflects a weak economic reality, with caution advised regarding upstream price increases affecting downstream demand [8] - Jianghai Securities indicates that while caution is warranted regarding low bond yields, the risk of rising rates is limited, with recent market performance showing strength amid easing concerns [8]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, attributed to seasonal factors ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - The new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, signaling insufficient effective demand[2] - New export orders decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, reflecting accelerated contraction possibly due to changes in import policies in some regions[2] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines to 48.7% and 47.4% respectively[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to contraction territory[3] - The construction sector's index dropped significantly by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, impacted by seasonal and weather conditions[3] - The service sector's index slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, remaining below the neutral point[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.9 percentage points to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone due to declines in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors[3] - Seasonal pressures from the upcoming Spring Festival are expected to further impact manufacturing activity in February[3] - Risks include potential seasonal factors not aligning with expectations and uncertainties in the external environment affecting exports[3]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, down from 50.1% in the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from 51.7%[1] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down from 50.8%, while the new export orders index dropped to 47.8% from 49.0%[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The proportion of enterprises reporting insufficient demand decreased to 54.9% in January, down from 64.3%[4] - The midstream growth rate difference reached 10.4%, up from 8.1%, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics[3] - The downstream growth rate difference increased to 1.9%, up from 0.3%, suggesting a positive trend in demand[3] Group 3: Price Indicators - The PMI factory price index rose to 50.6%, marking the first increase above the critical point in nearly 20 months[12] - The BCI consumer price index surged to 51.5%, the first rise above the critical point in 28 months[12] - Micro-enterprises in the midstream sector are beginning to raise prices, with semiconductor companies announcing price increases of 15%-80%[14]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January dropped to 49.3%, a significant decline compared to December, exceeding seasonal expectations[7] - Compared to November, the manufacturing PMI remained stable, indicating no significant strengthening in economic conditions[8] - The production index contributed 150% to the PMI, primarily driven by a recovery in upstream production[8] Group 2: Demand and Price Dynamics - New export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, while new orders remained flat, suggesting stronger external demand compared to domestic demand[8] - The main raw material purchase price index rose by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1% compared to December, indicating cost-push inflation[8] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, reflecting a trend of passive accumulation of inventory due to weak demand[8] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[8] - The construction PMI dropped to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors as projects halted ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The service sector PMI remained stable at 49.5%, supported by increased domestic travel demand during the holiday[8] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights concerns over the lack of demand support for production recovery and the potential impact of high raw material prices on industrial profitability[8] - Recent policy measures aim to stimulate demand and investment, with a focus on new consumption sectors[8]