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黄奇帆预测,大A市值要涨4倍,到400万亿!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 00:49
Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3900 points for the first time in ten years, marking the third occurrence in its history [1][2] - Historical patterns suggest that after surpassing 3900 points, the market tends to experience significant upward momentum, as seen in 2007 and 2015 [2][3][4] Economic Cycle Analysis - The article discusses a cyclical pattern in the economy, indicating that high points in the stock market occur approximately every ten years, driven by economic cycles [5][7] - The current market surge is linked to a new round of technological investments, particularly following the introduction of the AI model DeepSeek-R1, which has disrupted the market [11][12][13] Policy Shifts - A notable policy shift is highlighted with the introduction of the concept of a financial powerhouse in 2024, which will be a key goal in the 15th Five-Year Plan [15] - The article emphasizes the importance of wealth replacement and the transition from manufacturing and urbanization to a focus on finance and technology [16][17] Market Growth Potential - The current ratio of capital market value to GDP in China is approximately 0.7, indicating significant growth potential compared to the ideal ratio of 1:1 to 1:1.2 [22][26] - Projections suggest that by 2040, China's GDP could reach 350 trillion yuan, with the stock market potentially growing to 400 trillion yuan, representing a fourfold increase over 15 years [26][27] Long-term Market Outlook - The article posits that if the growth trajectory continues, the A-share market could experience a long-term bullish trend, with a potential fourfold increase over the next 15 years [29]