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刘世锦:稳定和扩大终端需求 重视“投资于人”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-17 04:21
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning from investment and export-driven growth to innovation and consumption-driven growth, emphasizing the need to stabilize and expand terminal demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift in China's economic growth model is characterized by a move from supply-side focus on industrial and physical capital investment to a demand-side focus on consumption and human capital investment [1][3] - Since Q1 2010, China's economic growth has gradually slowed from high-speed to medium-speed, with the main challenge shifting from supply constraints to demand constraints, particularly in consumption [1][2] Group 2: Consumption Issues - Consumption inadequacy is primarily reflected in insufficient service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, social security, and elderly care [1] - Urban residents face significant pressures from education, healthcare, and housing, but the most significant gaps are among rural residents, especially the nearly 300 million migrant workers, with around 200 million being urban migrants [1] Group 3: Structural Reforms - The long-standing urban-rural dual structure issue needs to be addressed through structural reforms focused on people-centered urbanization and equal development rights [1] - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to focus on resolving the structural issues related to the low proportion of consumption in terminal demand [2] Group 4: Economic Growth Dynamics - Economic growth can be understood in terms of "height" (social factor productivity improvement driven by technological innovation, institutional reform, and opening up) and "width" (effective demand from different segments of society) [2] - The current focus should be on expanding the width of economic growth, as recent innovations may not substitute for the need to broaden effective demand [2][3] Group 5: Investment and Consumption Interdependence - There is a deep interdependence between investment and consumption, both of which must grow in tandem to achieve technological self-reliance and build a modern industrial system [3]