Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply, stable demand, with loose spot supplies and potentially accumulating inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. It is advisable to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all declined; the three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum also decreased [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends of increase or decrease [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased, that of alumina increased, and that of cast aluminum alloy decreased [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory, LME aluminum cancelled warrants, and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous trading day all decreased; the total inventory of alumina and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum, alumina spot price, and average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production, import, and export of alumina all increased; the demand decreased, and the supply - demand balance increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The import and export of aluminum scrap decreased; the average prices in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, the import and export decreased, the production capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate increased [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products increased, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The production of automobiles decreased in July 2025 compared with the previous period; the national real estate prosperity index declined [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum showed different trends; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, and the call - put ratio decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's economic data in July showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable rise in prices [2]. - The Trump administration in the United States expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [2]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [2].

Group 1 - The current consumption deficiency in China is a structural deviation that needs to be addressed through investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new growth momentum for transformation [1] - The low proportion of service consumption in GDP indicates a structural issue in consumption, necessitating structural reforms focused on enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, and social security [1][2] - The proposal includes three reforms: first, addressing the structural housing deficit for new citizens, allowing local governments to use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for affordable housing projects [1][2] Group 2 - The disparity in pension benefits between urban workers and rural residents, which is nearly 30 times, significantly impacts consumption capacity and economic growth, suggesting a need for a more equitable pension system [2] - Recommendations for pension reform include increasing rural pensions to 620 yuan per month within three years and to 1000 yuan within five years to reduce the urban-rural gap [2] - The second urbanization wave should be driven by the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, aiming to double the middle-income group from 400 million to 800-900 million in about ten years to boost consumption, especially in services [3]

记者丨卜羽勤 编辑丨曾芳 消费不足是一种结构性偏差 "近年来我国经济增长疫后复苏、回升向好，也面临需求不足的严峻挑战。需求不足主要不是 投资不足，而是消费不足。"刘世锦认为，不论从国际比较、发展阶段还是消费结构来看，我 国消费率均处于偏低水平，这种状况可被称之是一种结构性偏差。 他具体指出，消费不足主要体现在服务消费的不足，重点是教育、医疗、保障性住房、社 保、养老等与基本公共服务相关的发展型消费不足；消费不足最大的缺口在于农村居民，重 点是近三亿农民工、近两亿进城农民工；消费不足实质上还是由来已久的城乡二元结构问 题，要通过以人为中心、发展权利平等的城市化和城乡融合发展为主线的结构性改革找到破 题之道。 为此，他提出了一个"终端需求"的概念，即消费+非生产性投资，后者主要是与民生相关的房 地产和基础设施建设。 刘世锦认为，过去相当长时间内，房地产和基建高速增长，从国际比较看，实际上存在着超 前和透支的问题。 当前中国经济面临诸多挑战，包括价格低迷、名义增长低于实际增长等， 根源都指向终端需求不足。解决消费比重过低问题，把终端需求提到合理水平，就有了经济 运行的源头活水 。 8月16日，由南方财经全媒体集团指 ...

Core Insights - China's consumption growth is significantly lagging behind its large population and economic growth, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this consumption shortfall [1][2][4] Group 1: Current State of Consumption in China - The definition and measurement of consumption shortfall are established, with China's resident consumption rate at 37.2% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 53.8% [2][3] - The final consumption rate for China in 2023 is reported at 55.64%, which is still below the approximately 80% seen in developed countries [3] - A notable slowdown in consumption growth is observed, with a projected 3.5% increase in retail sales for 2024, contrasting sharply with historical growth rates that often exceeded 8% [2][4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Consumption Shortfall - Low consumption propensity is identified as a core issue, with China's consumption propensity at 62% in 2022, compared to an average of 92.3% across 38 countries [6][8] - High housing prices contribute to consumer debt, with urban residents' real estate debt reaching 137.9% of household income, limiting their consumption capacity [9] - Income inequality is highlighted, with the top income group accounting for 46% of total income, leading to lower overall consumption rates [10] - An inadequate social security system is noted as a fundamental cause of low consumption, with high contribution rates and limited coverage increasing financial burdens on households [11] - Traditional consumption culture emphasizes saving over spending, which continues to influence consumer behavior [12] Group 3: Consumption Differences Across Demographics and Regions - Significant consumption behavior differences exist among income groups, with middle-income households contributing nearly 50% of total consumption [13] - Generational differences in consumption attitudes are emerging, particularly among the Z generation, who exhibit distinct purchasing behaviors [17][18] - Regional consumption disparities are noted, with consumption in central regions expanding while eastern and western regions show a trend towards balance [19] Group 4: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's service consumption accounts for approximately 46% of total spending, lower than that of the US (68.5%) and Japan (57.7%), indicating room for structural improvement [20][21] - Successful international experiences in enhancing consumption rates suggest that comprehensive policies are needed to boost service consumption and overall consumer confidence [22] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - Predictions indicate that by 2030, service consumption levels in China could exceed 20,000 yuan, positioning it as a key growth driver [25][27] - The expansion of the middle-income group, projected to surpass 50% of the population by 2030, is expected to significantly enhance consumption potential [27]

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者刘世锦 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 刘世锦 十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任、国务院发展研究中心原副主任 以下观点整理自刘世锦在CMF宏观经济热点问题研讨会（第100期）上的发言 01 经济增长与高收入门槛的挑战 我国目前正处于跨越高收入国家门槛的关键时期，保持中速增长并力争使名义增速高于实际增速，具 有重要意义。 今年政府工作报告提出了5%的经济增长目标，"这是一个迎难而上，奋发有为的"鲜 明特色和政策导向。实现该目标虽存在一定难度，但意义重大，因为增速问题对我国当前至关重要。 2021年我国已非常接近高收入国家门槛，仅差一两百美元，然而四年过去仍未跨越，差距甚至略有 拉大。原因主要有： 一是疫情冲击使实际增速受到影响，但从国际比较来看，近两年我国实际增速 并不低；二是价格低迷甚至出现"通缩"，导致名义增速低于实际增速；三是人民币对美元汇 ...