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“9·24”一周年,还会有新的增量政策吗
经济观察报· 2025-09-24 15:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new round of "924" policies in response to slowing consumption and investment growth, as well as increased volatility in real estate prices in certain cities as of the second half of 2025 [1][7]. Group 1: Review of "924" Policy - The "924" policy, introduced on September 24, 2024, marked a significant shift in China's economic policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" [3][9]. - The policy included a series of measures such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, and innovative monetary policy tools aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and restoring property and stock market stability [5][12]. - The implementation of the "924" policy led to a notable increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose over 1,000 points within a year [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Challenges - By the second half of 2025, consumption and investment growth began to slow, with some cities experiencing increased fluctuations in real estate prices, prompting questions about the need for new policies [7][17]. - Economic indicators showed a decline in retail sales growth to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, with real estate investment down by 12.9% [16][17]. - The challenges faced include the diminishing marginal effects of previous policies and the need for more targeted measures to address unresolved issues from earlier interventions [17][18]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest that new incremental policies will likely be introduced, with a focus on addressing specific economic challenges rather than replicating the "924" policy [18][19]. - Recommendations for future policies include expanding subsidies for service consumption, directly providing cash or digital currency to low-income groups, and reinitiating policy financial tools to support local project capital [18][19]. - There is a call for a more coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance the effectiveness of future interventions and improve the overall economic environment [19].