日本对抗通缩的实践表明，一旦形成"债务—通缩"恶性循环，长期通缩预期将削弱央行降息（降低 名义利率）的政策效果。 日本CPI自2021年9月开始转正，此后基本稳定在2.5%以上。日本经济走 出通缩的一个重要契机是抓住全球通胀上行形成的输入性通胀窗口期，建立工资与物价同步上涨的良 性循环，并通过货币政策正常化增强长期通胀预期。 房地产投资不振叠加对等关税冲击，中游化工品成为PPI下行的最大拖累因素。中游化工品对PPI降 幅波动的解释程度达到60%以上，是分析PPI整体走势的重要指标。受供给波动和需求收缩影响，下 游必选消费品加大PPI下行压力。 综合整治内卷式竞争初显成效，下游可选消费品对PPI形成支撑。随着《公平竞争审查条例》《全国 统一大市场建设指引（试行）》相继出台，多部门加大力度治理企业低价无序竞争，新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏等新兴产业价格降幅收窄，缓解企业"增收不增利"的经营压力。 下半年，宏观调控重心是强化财政、货币、产业、就业、社保等各项政策协同发力，促进经济供需平 衡和物价合理回升，避免名义增长偏慢拉大宏微观经济温差。 提振名义经济增长应供需两端"双管齐下"：一方面，将涵盖一般物价（CPI、PP ...

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the effectiveness of the moderately loose monetary policy implemented in the first half of the year, which has contributed to economic recovery and stability amidst a complex international environment [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments, which have been fully implemented within a month [2]. - The report indicates that the monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, with financial data showing positive trends in the first seven months [2][4]. Economic Structure and Consumption - The report emphasizes a shift in consumption patterns from goods to services as income levels rise, suggesting that service consumption will be a key driver of economic growth in the future [3][8]. - There is a significant opportunity for high-quality service consumption to enhance the balance of supply and demand in the economy [2][3]. Financial Support and Credit Structure - The report outlines that the focus of bank loans aligns with the direction of China's economic transformation, with approximately 70% of new loans directed towards sectors related to new growth drivers and domestic demand [6]. - The PBOC has made efforts to optimize the credit structure, with a notable increase in medium- and long-term loans, which are crucial for supporting high-quality economic development [7]. Direct Financing and Market Dynamics - The proportion of direct financing, including corporate bonds and stocks, has increased to 31.1%, indicating a continuous improvement in the financing structure [7]. - The report suggests that enhancing the supply of high-quality services is essential for stimulating consumer demand, as the current service consumption share is still below 50% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Under the leadership of the Central Committee, macroeconomic policies have been actively implemented, resulting in a stable economic operation with major indicators showing strong vitality and resilience. The GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2]. Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to support high-quality economic development. This includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - The policy interest rates were lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and structural monetary policy tool rates were reduced by 0.25 percentage points in May, aiming to decrease overall financing costs [3]. Financial Stability and Risk Management - The monetary policy has shown effective counter-cyclical adjustments, with the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) growing by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, by the end of June. The balance of RMB loans reached 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and has implemented measures to prevent systemic financial risks [5][7]. Future Outlook - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations. It will also enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and support key areas such as technology innovation and consumption [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain price stability, while addressing the challenges posed by a complex external environment [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1][7]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy [1][7]. - The PBOC plans to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates to lower the cost of bank liabilities and reduce overall financing costs [1][4][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating strong economic vitality and resilience [3]. - By the end of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The PBOC is focused on maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate and preventing systemic financial risks, while enhancing the monitoring and assessment of financial risks [4][6][7]. - The report outlines measures to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, and small and micro enterprises through targeted monetary policy tools [4][7].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance investment in people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and strengthen economic resilience [1][5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments to ensure effective policy implementation [1][9] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][4] - Local general public budget revenue reached 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting revenue growth [2][3] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Initiatives - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds to support consumption, with 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of consumer goods replacement subsidies [5][6] - The total sales of consumer goods under the replacement program reached 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [6][7] Group 4: Social Welfare and Support - New policies for free preschool education and childcare subsidies are expected to benefit approximately 12 million children, with an additional 20 billion yuan in fiscal spending [8][9] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments by 8.4%, amounting to 1.03415 trillion yuan, to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining spending intensity to support consumption and investment [10][11] - The introduction of long-term special bonds and local special bonds is anticipated to further solidify the positive trend in high-quality economic development [10]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Brazil decreased to 5.8% in Q2 2025, the lowest since 2012, down from 7.0% in Q1 and 6.9% year-on-year [1] - The number of unemployed individuals reached 6.3 million, a reduction of over 1.3 million from Q1, representing a decline of 17.4% [1] - The total employment reached 102.3 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The average real monthly salary in Brazil rose to 3,477 reais in Q2, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% and a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, marking a historical high [2] - The total wage bill reached 351.2 billion reais, also a record high, with a quarterly increase of 2.9% and an annual increase of 5.9% [2] - The number of discouraged workers, or those who have stopped looking for jobs, fell to 2.8 million, the lowest since 2016, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.7% [2] Group 3 - The public sector saw significant growth, particularly in education, with the number of public employees reaching 12.8 million, a quarterly increase of 5.0% and an annual increase of 3.4% [2] - The informal employment rate decreased to 37.8%, with the number of informal workers at 38.7 million, the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15% to address inflation challenges amid rising income levels and increased service prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that while the Chinese economy is stabilizing, persistent low prices are dragging down nominal economic growth, widening the gap between macro and micro economic conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year growth rate around 0% for 27 consecutive months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, marking 33 months of negative growth [1] - The GDP deflator has recorded negative year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the seven quarters of negative growth during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [1] Causes of Low Prices - The low price environment is attributed to the pains of transitioning from old to new economic drivers. While the impact of durable goods and rental prices on CPI has eased, weakened income expectations are constraining service consumption growth, preventing a virtuous cycle of consumption expansion, price increase, and wage growth [1] - Supply fluctuations, weak domestic demand, and shrinking external demand are increasing downward pressure on PPI, particularly in midstream chemical products and downstream essential consumer goods [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests five key recommendations to address the low price situation, including increasing nominal fiscal deficit rates, implementing inflation-targeted monetary policies, and stabilizing real estate prices to mitigate liquidity risks for major property firms [2] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption to alleviate persistent low prices, as service consumption tends to exhibit differentiated supply expansion and price increases, unlike the homogeneous supply of general goods [2][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of macroeconomic regulation will be on strengthening the coordination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies to promote economic supply-demand balance and reasonable price recovery [4] - It advocates for the inclusion of a broad price index, covering general prices (CPI, PPI, and GDP deflator) and asset prices (housing and stock prices), into macroeconomic regulation targets, and encourages the use of unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index**: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - **Aluminum**: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Nickel**: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Rubber**: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - **Jujubes**: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in macroeconomic regulation, particularly in the context of a sluggish global economic recovery, highlighting its importance in stabilizing the economy [1][2] - In the first half of the year, national general public budget expenditure exceeded 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with social security and employment expenditure reaching 2.4504 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The fiscal policy has shifted from "active" to "more active," with increased intensity and scale, including over 2 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds issued and 162 billion yuan allocated for long-term special government bond funds to promote consumption [1] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing support for education and technology, with expenditures in these areas growing by 5.9% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The fiscal policy aims to focus on weak areas and key links in economic and social development, optimizing fiscal policy supply to provide substantial financial and policy support for high-quality development [2] - The effectiveness of fiscal policy will be enhanced through better coordination with monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies, ensuring a cohesive approach to policy implementation [2]