国内PVC现实端依然偏空。不过，市场对行业春检、后市增量政策，以及国内部分低效产能退出的预期较为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 乐观。PVC弱现实与强预期博弈，短期震荡对待。技术上，V2605日度K线关注4900附近支撑与5010附近压 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 力。 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4963 | 15 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1161838 | -155627 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1130097 | 55686 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1099698 | 26862 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1197058 | 29686 前20名持仓:净买单量: ...

1月7日，A股三大指数再度集体上涨。截至1月7日收盘，上证指数收涨0.05%，报4085.77点， 盘中一度触及4098.78点，达到2015年以来的新高，意味着A股上涨行情从2025年向2026年顺 利延续。 此轮上涨行情起于2024年9月底中央出台的一系列增量政策提振市场信心，随后的2025年春 节，"DeepSeek时刻"点燃了A股行情，全球投资者开始关注到中国在科技领域发展的超预期发 展，从而推动了中国资产重估。 科技股成为推动A股本轮行情的结构性的支柱力量。 从行业来看，2025年8月电子行业市值首 次超过银行业，成为股票市场第一大行业。市场整体"含科量"超过25%，从全年涨幅看，创业 板指上涨49.57%，科创50上涨35.92%，北证50上涨38.81%，均高于上证指数、深证成指。 2026年元旦假期以来连续三个交易日的上涨，也主要是由科技股推动。 2026年，随着中国企 业在半导体、创新药等领域以及其他新兴产业的快速发展，科技类上市公司将继续成为A股上 涨行情的内在强大驱动力。 推动A股上涨的另一大因素是不断完善的市场监管体系以及政策支持。 自2023年开始，中国更 加重视活跃资本市场与提振市 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% this week, with the asset allocation sequence favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash [1][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and address the "price stagnation" issue, highlighting fixed asset investment as a core solution [3][22] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shanghai 300 stock index futures rose by 2.46%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 0.72% and iron ore contracts decreased by 0.06% [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.04%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.84% [2][46] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a focus on the implementation of incremental policies [3][4] - The report suggests that the demand for fixed investment remains crucial in addressing the issue of "price stagnation," with real estate investment continuing to drag down fixed asset investment performance [3][24] Sector Insights - The report highlights that the industrial product prices are influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and domestic investment shortfalls, particularly in the coal mining and washing industry [3][28] - The automotive sector is noted for a decline in wholesale and retail sales, with a year-on-year drop of 9% and 11% respectively, indicating a potential for recovery driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [38][44] Key Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the GDP for 2024 was finalized at 13,480.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [6][26] - The report also tracks high-frequency data, indicating a decrease in the operating rates of major steel mills and a decline in social inventory of construction materials [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to implement incremental policies in 2026 to boost economic growth, focusing on the integration of existing and new policies to achieve qualitative and quantitative improvements in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Strategies - The primary task for 2026 is to maintain domestic demand as the main driver of growth, with consumption being the top priority. Current policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods have led to rapid sales growth, and the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is nearing 60% [1]. - The government aims to expand the scope of consumption policies from durable goods to more potential service sectors such as culture, tourism, and health [2]. Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - Significant increases in investment are expected in 2026, particularly in new urbanization, technological innovation, and major livelihood projects. The central budget investment scale is projected to rise from 7.3 trillion yuan in 2025 to provide strong capital support for major projects [2][3]. - The introduction of new policy-based financial tools, with an expected increase of several hundred billion yuan in 2026, will continue to support key projects [3]. Group 3: Industrial Upgrading and New Growth Drivers - The government plans to enhance traditional industries through technological upgrades and green transformations, potentially unlocking an additional market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Development of emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace is expected to create substantial market opportunities, with projections indicating the potential for tens of thousands of billions in new market scale [4]. Group 4: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The implementation of macroeconomic policies will emphasize systemic and coordinated approaches, focusing on optimizing fiscal spending and maintaining a reasonable level of debt while ensuring effective use of government bond funds [4]. - Structural reforms will continue to deepen, particularly in establishing a unified national market, which includes standardizing market access and competition regulations [4].

♨博时基金市场异动陪伴 市场表现： MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：江钰涵 ♨博时基金市场异动陪伴 市场表现： 12月16日，沪深三大指数跌超1%，创业板指跌超2%。 12月16日，沪深三大指数跌超1%，创业板指跌超2%。 解析： ‼今日A股市场调整，创业板指数跌幅较深，或是海内外多重压力共同作用的结果。外部看，隔夜美股 因AI概念股持续抛售而收跌，全球科技板块情绪受挫传导至A股相关板块。同时，美联储官员暗示货币 政策已达"良好位置"，叠加日本央行加息预期扰动，全球流动性宽松预期受限，或边际压制成长板块估 值。国内层面，市场正处于重要会议后的政策细则等待期，增量政策的落地节奏尚不明朗。加之临近年 底，部分资金倾向于获利了结或转向防御，市场整体情绪趋于谨慎。 ‼最新公布的11月份宏观经济数据呈现出"外需有韧性，内需待巩固"的复杂图景。一方面，出口同比增 长5.7%，展现出超预期韧性；规模以上工业增加值在装备制造和高技术制造业支撑下保持稳定；CPI同 比涨幅扩大及PPI环比转正，也显示价格压力有所缓解。另一方面，社会消费品零售总额同比增速放 缓，固定资产投资同比降幅扩大，其中房地产开发投资下滑显 ...

重要的消息有哪些 新股提示 今日可申购健信超导，健信超导发行市盈率61.97倍，申购代码为：787805，申购价格：18.58元，单一 账户申购上限1万股。 投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 A股多个指数调整生效 深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司此前发布公告，根据指数编制规则，将对深证成指、创业板 指、深证100、创业板50等深市指数实施样本定期调整。 此外，中证指数有限公司11月28日公布沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证 A500等指数样本定期调整方案。 12月12日，金融监管总局党委召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，结合全国金融系统工作会议 部署要求，研究贯彻落实措施。党委书记、局长李云泽主持会议。会议强调，坚定履行风险防控首位主 责，着力化解存量风险，坚决遏制增量风险，严守不"爆雷"底线。支持稳定房地产市场，进一步发挥城 市房地产融资协调机制作用，助力构建房地产发展新模式。指导银行保险机构按照市场化法治化原则， 积极化解地方政府融资平台金融债务风险。 上述调整均为指数样本的定期调整，将于12月15日正式生效。 中央财办发声：将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策 12月13 ...

重要的消息有哪些 新股提示 中央财办发声：将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策 12月13日，中国国际经济交流中心举办2025—2026中国经济年会。中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作的副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任韩文秀表示， 2025年我国主要经济指标表现好于预期，经济总量预计达到140万亿元左右。2026年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，推动经济稳中向好。 央行：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 坚定维护金融市场平稳运行 12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。 会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加快推进金融供给侧结构性改革。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种货币政策工具，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，保持流动性充裕。 今日可申购健信超导，健信超导发行市盈率61.97倍，申购代码为：787805，申购价格：18.58元，单一账户申购上限1万股。 投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 A股多个指数调整生效 深圳证券交易所 ...

Economic Policy and Investment - Multiple departments are deploying measures for next year's economic work, focusing on optimizing fiscal investments and stabilizing economic growth [2] - The central economic work conference has outlined the direction for economic policies leading up to 2026, with an emphasis on implementing incremental policies in response to changing circumstances [2] Real Estate and Consumer Financing - Discussions around home loan interest subsidies are gaining traction, with potential policies expected to alleviate pressure on banks while supporting homebuyers [5] - Several cities have already piloted "home loan interest subsidy" policies, resulting in over a 15% month-on-month increase in new home transactions in some areas [5] Labor Market Insights - The average age of the labor force in China is reported at 39.66 years, with Inner Mongolia now having the oldest labor demographic, surpassing the traditionally older provinces [7] Automotive Industry Developments - The world's largest automotive safety testing center has opened in Ningbo, Zhejiang, featuring extensive testing capabilities and setting multiple Guinness World Records [8] Agricultural Trade - Argentina has commenced its first commercial wheat export to China, with a shipment of 65,000 tons, marking a significant milestone in bilateral trade relations [9] Consumer Spending Initiatives - A joint notification from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and financial regulators aims to enhance consumer spending through coordinated efforts and innovative financial support [6] Corporate Debt and Financial Challenges - Vanke's three proposals for extending the maturity of its medium-term notes were all rejected, raising concerns about the company's debt restructuring prospects as the repayment deadline approaches [15][16] Market Reactions to Policy Changes - Following the announcement of new quantity control policies by Moutai, market prices for its products surged, with reports indicating a price increase of over 150 yuan per bottle in just two days [17] Stock Market Activity - Over 130 billion yuan worth of restricted shares are set to be unlocked this week, with significant contributions from companies like Yandong Micro and Lintai New Materials [18] New Stock Offerings - Five new stocks are scheduled for subscription this week, including offerings from companies in various sectors, indicating ongoing market activity [20]

Index Adjustments - Multiple indices in the A-share market, including the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index, will undergo sample adjustments effective December 15, 2025, with significant changes in constituent stocks [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, adding 7 from the main board and 10 from ChiNext, including companies like Demingli and Wohu Nuclear Materials [1] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co. and Changshan Pharmaceutical [1] - The CSI 300 Index will change 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology [2] Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for incremental policies to support economic stability, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and other financial authorities issued a notification to enhance collaboration between business and finance to boost consumption [4] Investment and Fiscal Policies - The Ministry of Finance is focusing on stabilizing investment and enhancing macroeconomic governance, with plans to increase fiscal deficits and optimize government bond usage [5][6] - The People's Bank of China is set to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain market stability [8][9] Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity in the market [15] - The North Exchange is reportedly testing a new system for market capitalization-based IPOs, although some brokerages have not yet initiated testing [11] Company News - Yushu Technology launched a humanoid robot "App Store" for users to upload and share trained models [13] - Moore Threads plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management while ensuring project funding remains unaffected [14]

Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced sample adjustments for several indices, including the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, effective December 15, 2025. The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, including 7 from the main board and 10 from the ChiNext [2] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Fulian Precision [2] - The CSI 300 Index will replace 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology, while removing stocks like FAW Jiefang and Oppein Home [3] - The CSI 500 Index will replace 50 stocks, including Dongfang Yuhong and Heertai, while removing stocks like China Great Wall and Semir Garment [3] - The CSI 1000 Index will replace 100 stocks, with new additions including Fenghua High-Tech and Shijia Photon [3] - The CSI A50 Index will replace 4 stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like ZTE and Shanghai Airport [4] - The CSI A100 Index will replace 6 stocks, with new entries such as Dongfang Fortune and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like Shanghai Airport and CITIC Securities [4] - The CSI A500 Index will replace 20 stocks, including Zhongtian Technology and Genesis [4] Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that China’s economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 based on changing circumstances [6] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, outlining 11 policy measures [7] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for fiscal policies to support investment stabilization, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and optimizing local government bond usage [8] Financial Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [10] - Social financing (社融) increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stressed the importance of risk prevention and supporting the stability of the real estate market [12] Market Strategies - CITIC Securities suggested focusing on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards domestic consumption [18] - Zhongxin Jian Investment noted that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing [19] - Guotai Junan recommended a balanced asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of risk management amid potential market volatility [20]