经济结构与总量

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张瑜:宏观数据的“是与非”——张瑜旬度纪要No120
一瑜中的· 2025-08-27 13:58
Economic Data - In July, fixed asset investment data was weak, indicating a need for rebalancing between short-term demand and long-term supply [4] - The high investment growth in manufacturing over the past three years has created pressure on medium to long-term prices, with investment growth consistently above 6%, and two years exceeding 9% [4] - The GDP growth target of 5% for the year is achievable, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.7%-4.8% in the second half of the year being sufficient for structural optimization [4] Financial Data - July loan data was also weak, but historical context shows that weak financial data can coincide with economic turning points, as seen in 2016 when industrial medium to long-term loans dropped significantly [5] - The reduction in industrial loans in 2016 was a key factor in the economic recovery, despite the weak financial data at that time [5] Overall Conclusion - The analysis emphasizes that as long as the economy operates above a sustainable baseline, weak short-term data can be beneficial for medium to long-term economic balance [8] - The market's reaction to July data, with stable bond prices and stock performance, reflects a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [8] - The core conclusion is that structure is more important than total volume, highlighting the significance of underlying economic conditions over mere aggregate data [6][8]