金丰来关注到，美元连续第二个交易日小幅走强，外汇市场正在重新评估美联储年内降息空间。此前投资者 普遍押注将出现多次降息，但随着通胀与就业数据表现出一定韧性，部分资金开始下调对宽松节奏的预期。 对冲基金近期削减了对美元的看空头寸，显示市场情绪出现阶段性修正。 从利率定价来看，货币市场对未来降息幅度的预期有所收敛。尽管整体仍偏向年内存在一定宽松空间，但若 经济增长维持稳健、核心通胀回落速度缓慢，美联储或维持相对较高的利率水平更长时间。金丰来留意到， 美元此前已经历较长时间的调整，投资者持仓处于低配状态，一旦政策路径出现偏鹰变化，美元可能迎来技 术性反弹。 就业数据的强劲表现也削弱了短期内实施"预防式"降息的必要性。部分机构预计，年中或许存在一次降息窗 口，但随后政策可能趋于观望。这样的节奏意味着市场此前对连续多次降息的押注存在一定修正空间。利率 预期的微调往往会在外汇市场引发连锁反应，尤其是在流动性较为敏感的阶段。 不过，美元的反弹能否持续仍有待观察。过去一年中，美元整体承压，投资者对政策不确定性的担忧曾令指 数创下阶段低点。当前市场关注的焦点集中在未来公布的通胀数据以及美联储会议纪要内容。如果数据再度 偏强，美 ...

2月9日，早盘伦敦现货黄金再次站上5000美元/盎司。本周内盘为春节长假前最后一周，海外地缘局势 不确定性较高，资金或有退潮迹象，黄金交易需谨慎。 宏观数据方面，本周美国将公布CPI和非农就业数据，恐引发黄金等贵金属波动。其他数据方面，美国 ISM1月服务业PMI指数为53.8，与12月持平，也持平于2024年10月以来的最高水平，好于市场预期，但 新订单指数有所放缓；美国1月ADP新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.5万人，显现劳动力市场动 能减弱迹象；美国12月JOLTS职位空缺654.2万人，为2020年9月以来的最低水平，低于预期值725万人 和前值692.8万人。消息面，一向作为鸽派代表的美联储理事米兰表示今年需要降息不止100个基点，很 期待沃什接下来的表现；美国众议院通过了一项由该国总统特朗普与参议院民主党人协商达成的拨款协 议，美国政府的部分停摆有望结束。 地缘政治方面，海湾局势继续紧张，美伊阿曼谈判并未达成有效共识，未来两国发生冲突的可能性仍然 存在。 目前，市场寄希望于地缘政治，但地缘政治的反复性可能会增加对行情预判的难度。近期贵金属走势来 看，波动率难以下降，但趋势仍然不明了，建议 ...

Group 1 - The New York stock market indices opened higher on January 9, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 237.96 points to close at 49,504.07, a gain of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 44.82 points to close at 6,966.28, reflecting a rise of 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 191.331 points to close at 23,671.346, marking an increase of 0.82% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, nine out of eleven sectors saw gains, with the materials and utilities sectors leading with increases of 1.80% and 1.24%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December 2025, below the market consensus of 55,000, with previous months' job additions revised downwards [1] - The unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the revised rate of 4.5% in the previous month [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2025 was reported at 54, surpassing the previous month's 52.9 and the market consensus of 53.5, marking the highest level since September 2025 [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for one year remained stable at 4.2%, the lowest since January 2025, while the five-year inflation expectation rose from 3.2% to 3.4% [2] Group 4 - D.R. Horton, a major U.S. homebuilder, saw its stock price increase by 7.8% following President Trump's announcement to request Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bonds to lower interest rates [3]

Group 1 - The global financial market is maintaining a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data releases, with the dollar strengthening and asset prices fluctuating within critical ranges [1][2] - Gold prices are oscillating around the $4470 mark, showing resilience despite a lack of effective breakthroughs, supported by a loose Federal Reserve policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The market is generally reducing directional trading intentions before the non-farm payroll data release, with the dollar's performance being a key limiting factor for gold's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar remains relatively strong ahead of the non-farm payroll report, bolstered by better-than-expected U.S. trade data and initial jobless claims, leading to increased demand for the dollar [2] - The market anticipates approximately 60,000 new jobs in the December non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, which will be crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions surrounding energy, trade, and regional security continue to influence risk appetite, providing structural support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]

Group 1 - The performance of the global commodity market is characterized by three distinct trends: oil prices are declining, nickel prices are surging, and gold is steadily increasing [3][4] - Oil prices have dropped by 2% to around $57 per barrel, as traders reassess the potential for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate energy security concerns in Europe and highlight the oversupply in the oil market [3][4] - Nickel prices have surged over 10%, marking the largest single-day increase in over three years, driven by supply risks from Indonesia and strong market interest in the metal, reflecting expectations for continued growth in the electric vehicle sector [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has shown a moderate increase, remaining above $4,490 per ounce, as investors shift focus from geopolitical events to macroeconomic indicators, particularly upcoming U.S. economic data [4][5] - The current commodity market is experiencing a "logical differentiation," with oil reflecting geopolitical risk and oversupply, nickel driven by strong demand for green technologies, and gold responding to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt targeted strategies based on their focus areas: caution in oil, opportunities in nickel, and the continued value of gold for asset allocation and risk hedging [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Straits Times Index in Singapore increased by 22.67% for the entire year of 2025, reaching a new historical high last week, indicating strong market performance despite potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical risks and the release of macroeconomic data from the United States [1][1]. Group 1 - The Straits Times Index achieved a year-on-year increase of 22.67% in 2025 [1]. - The index reached a new historical high during intraday trading last week [1]. - Short-term market volatility may increase due to geopolitical risks and the release of concentrated macroeconomic data from the United States [1].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market has become the focal point of the commodities sector, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and geopolitical risk, with gold prices reaching an all-time high [2] - Silver's performance has been particularly remarkable, with a monthly increase marking the highest since 1979 and a weekly rise of 16.08% [2] - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than solid industry fundamentals, indicating potential risks of price corrections as market sentiment normalizes [2] Group 2: Energy and Industrial Metals - The energy market shows mixed performance, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $58 per barrel, supported by U.S. actions against Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but limited by ample global supply [3] - UBS notes that the U.S. government prefers to manage inflation through low oil prices, establishing an "invisible floor" for oil prices around $50 [3] - Industrial metals maintain high prices due to optimistic market sentiment regarding Chinese economic support policies and strong demand for metals like copper and aluminum in green energy infrastructure [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - The agricultural market faces challenges from South American weather and geopolitical risks, with corn and soybean prices initially boosted by Chinese demand but later pressured by farmer sell-offs [4] - A significant warning is that soybean export volumes have decreased by nearly one-third year-on-year, which may impact planting decisions for 2026 [4] - In contrast, corn exports have surged by 30% year-on-year, becoming a highlight in the grain market, while the livestock sector remains robust for cattle but faces downward pressure in the pork market due to increased supply [4] Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - As the new year approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain low, amplifying the impact of any sudden news on prices [5] - The current commodities market is at a critical juncture, with precious metals experiencing strong momentum but facing valuation challenges, while energy and agricultural markets seek new pricing logic amid policy interventions and climate variability [5] - For 2026, a return to fundamentals may replace the current sentiment-driven trading, becoming the main theme in the market [5]

Core Insights - Gold spot prices are projected to gain approximately $50/oz week-over-week, closing around $4,340/oz after a strong start to the week [2][3] - The market is anticipating at least two more rate cuts next year, influenced by macroeconomic data [2] Economic Data Impact - Key employment data for October and November revealed a 4.6% unemployment rate, a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, and only 64,000 new jobs added in November, indicating a weak labor market [4][6] - Retail sales growth for October was reported at 0% month-over-month, with downward revisions to previous figures [6] Inflation and Market Sentiment - November's Core CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, better than the expected 3%, but market confidence in the data is low due to the October government shutdown [7] - The perceived reliability of inflation metrics is questioned, limiting their influence on rate-cut expectations [8] Market Dynamics - Despite weak U.S. economic data, gold prices have remained stable, suggesting a near-term ceiling for gold [8] - Ongoing demand from ETFs and central banks, along with geopolitical risks, continues to support gold prices at current levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to data indicating a slowdown in inflation, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4,353 per ounce as of the close of A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) decreased by 0.04%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.28%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) rose by 1.61% [1] - Gold and silver prices have seen significant increases since the Federal Reserve signaled a shift in policy at the end of 2023, with gold prices reaching a historical high above $4,300 per ounce [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Future Outlook - Traders are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data, including existing home sales and the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which could impact the dollar and create short-term trading opportunities for gold [1] - Despite favorable data, the marginal uplifting effect on prices has significantly weakened, suggesting that the market may enter a phase of high-level consolidation, waiting for clearer macroeconomic data or policy signals to guide direction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, remaining relatively strong during the day. After the significant increase in the previous period, the downstream acceptance was average, and currently, the market is mainly oscillating at a high level. The subsequent momentum depends on the Fed's interest rate cut and the release of macro - data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a growth rate of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strip was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders. Copper foil remained at a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and pre - demand from new - energy vehicles [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, remaining relatively strong during the day. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 55 yuan/ton. On December 17, 2025, the LME official price was $11,732/ton, and the spot premium was - $12/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,700 tons, 227 tons less than the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, 3,300 tons less than the previous period. LME copper inventory was 164,300 tons, 325 tons more than the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 457,000 short tons, 2,348 short tons more than the previous period [11]