1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing down; the steel consumption in the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore market is driven by events, with a "near - strong, far - weak" fundamental characteristic. Prices are supported by costs and tight spot supplies but are suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [26] - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals, and it is difficult to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro Data** - From January to February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend is stabilizing [4] - From January to February, the automobile production was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. In January, the single - month steel consumption was 1.01577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In February, the single - month steel consumption was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - In February, the completed infrastructure investment increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption for railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0% and 31.1% [8] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3173, 3124, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3311, 3299, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [11] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed certain changes on March 27, 2026 [16] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis** - The iron ore market is event - driven, with a complex mix of long and short factors. The macro internal and external demand momentum is weak, the supply and shipment are marginally recovering, and the rising fuel cost provides support. The resumption of production by steel mills drives the increase in hot metal production, and the structural shortage of port inventory is the core driver. The fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic [26] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 769.5, 812, and 788 yuan/ton respectively [27][31] - The basis and spot prices of different iron ore varieties also changed [31] - **Fundamental Data** - On March 27, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 231,090 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.1317 million tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, etc. [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis** - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is close to the same - period level, hot metal production and steel mill profits are lower than in previous years, and there is great inventory pressure at the Mongolian coal port. It is difficult for prices to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the price differences between different coking coal and coke contracts, as well as the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions, showed certain changes [45][46][47] Ferroalloy - **Market Analysis** - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The Australian hurricane has disrupted the shipment of manganese ore. The price - holding by miners and the strengthening of coking coal provide bottom support. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the basis, price differences between contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed certain changes [59][61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the futures - cash market, but the price increase space is limited due to limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1229, 1310, and 1360 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts also changed [72][75] Glass - **Market Analysis** - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches is a risk concern. The expected return of supply and the high middle - stream inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1041, 1179, and 1273 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts and the basis also changed [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has shown slight strength for the second consecutive trading day as the forex market reassesses the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut potential for the year, with some investors adjusting their expectations for easing due to resilient inflation and employment data [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The pricing in the money market indicates a convergence in expectations for future rate cuts, with a prevailing view that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period if economic growth remains steady and core inflation declines slowly [3]. - Strong employment data has diminished the necessity for a "preemptive" rate cut in the short term, leading to a potential window for a rate cut mid-year, followed by a more cautious policy stance [3][5]. - The adjustment in rate expectations can trigger chain reactions in the forex market, particularly during sensitive liquidity phases [3]. Group 2: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - The dollar's rebound potential remains uncertain, as it has faced pressure over the past year due to investor concerns about policy uncertainty, which previously led to a low point for the index [5]. - Market focus is currently on upcoming inflation data and the content of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which could either support the dollar further if data is strong or renew rate cut expectations if inflation cools significantly [5][6]. - Recent changes in options market pricing indicate a reduction in short-term bearish sentiment, although a complete turnaround has not yet occurred, with some investors adjusting positions during low trading volumes [6]. Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The key to the dollar's trajectory lies in the interplay between interest rate expectations and macroeconomic data, with the current market pricing for rate cuts potentially being overly optimistic and subject to recalibration [8]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor economic data and policy signals when positioning in forex assets, avoiding blind trend-chasing in a high-volatility environment [8]. - The dollar is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern in the near term while awaiting clearer policy direction [8].

Core Viewpoint - London spot gold has risen above $5000 per ounce, reflecting high uncertainty in overseas geopolitical situations, suggesting a cautious approach to gold trading [6][1]. Macroeconomic Data - The U.S. is set to release CPI and non-farm employment data this week, which may cause fluctuations in gold and other precious metals [6][1]. - The ISM services PMI for January is reported at 53.8, unchanged from December and at the highest level since October 2024, exceeding market expectations, although the new orders index has shown signs of slowing [6][1]. - In January, the ADP reported an addition of 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, indicating a weakening labor market [6][1]. - The JOLTS job openings for December stood at 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, falling short of the expected 7.25 million and the previous value of 6.928 million [6][1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan, known for his dovish stance, indicated a need for interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, expressing anticipation for upcoming comments from Walsh [6][1]. - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a funding agreement negotiated between President Trump and Senate Democrats, potentially ending parts of the government shutdown [6][1]. Geopolitical Situation - Tensions in the Gulf region remain high, with no effective consensus reached in U.S.-Iran-Oman negotiations, indicating a continued possibility of conflict between the two nations [6][1]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently hopeful regarding geopolitical developments, but the volatility in precious metals remains high, making trend predictions challenging; a cautious trading approach is advised ahead of the holiday [7][2].

Group 1 - The New York stock market indices opened higher on January 9, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 237.96 points to close at 49,504.07, a gain of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 44.82 points to close at 6,966.28, reflecting a rise of 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 191.331 points to close at 23,671.346, marking an increase of 0.82% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, nine out of eleven sectors saw gains, with the materials and utilities sectors leading with increases of 1.80% and 1.24%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December 2025, below the market consensus of 55,000, with previous months' job additions revised downwards [1] - The unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the revised rate of 4.5% in the previous month [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2025 was reported at 54, surpassing the previous month's 52.9 and the market consensus of 53.5, marking the highest level since September 2025 [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for one year remained stable at 4.2%, the lowest since January 2025, while the five-year inflation expectation rose from 3.2% to 3.4% [2] Group 4 - D.R. Horton, a major U.S. homebuilder, saw its stock price increase by 7.8% following President Trump's announcement to request Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bonds to lower interest rates [3]

Group 1 - The global financial market is maintaining a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data releases, with the dollar strengthening and asset prices fluctuating within critical ranges [1][2] - Gold prices are oscillating around the $4470 mark, showing resilience despite a lack of effective breakthroughs, supported by a loose Federal Reserve policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The market is generally reducing directional trading intentions before the non-farm payroll data release, with the dollar's performance being a key limiting factor for gold's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar remains relatively strong ahead of the non-farm payroll report, bolstered by better-than-expected U.S. trade data and initial jobless claims, leading to increased demand for the dollar [2] - The market anticipates approximately 60,000 new jobs in the December non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5%, which will be crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. labor market [2] - Geopolitical tensions surrounding energy, trade, and regional security continue to influence risk appetite, providing structural support for safe-haven assets like gold [2]

Group 1 - The performance of the global commodity market is characterized by three distinct trends: oil prices are declining, nickel prices are surging, and gold is steadily increasing [3][4] - Oil prices have dropped by 2% to around $57 per barrel, as traders reassess the potential for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate energy security concerns in Europe and highlight the oversupply in the oil market [3][4] - Nickel prices have surged over 10%, marking the largest single-day increase in over three years, driven by supply risks from Indonesia and strong market interest in the metal, reflecting expectations for continued growth in the electric vehicle sector [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has shown a moderate increase, remaining above $4,490 per ounce, as investors shift focus from geopolitical events to macroeconomic indicators, particularly upcoming U.S. economic data [4][5] - The current commodity market is experiencing a "logical differentiation," with oil reflecting geopolitical risk and oversupply, nickel driven by strong demand for green technologies, and gold responding to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt targeted strategies based on their focus areas: caution in oil, opportunities in nickel, and the continued value of gold for asset allocation and risk hedging [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Straits Times Index in Singapore increased by 22.67% for the entire year of 2025, reaching a new historical high last week, indicating strong market performance despite potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical risks and the release of macroeconomic data from the United States [1][1]. Group 1 - The Straits Times Index achieved a year-on-year increase of 22.67% in 2025 [1]. - The index reached a new historical high during intraday trading last week [1]. - Short-term market volatility may increase due to geopolitical risks and the release of concentrated macroeconomic data from the United States [1].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market has become the focal point of the commodities sector, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and geopolitical risk, with gold prices reaching an all-time high [2] - Silver's performance has been particularly remarkable, with a monthly increase marking the highest since 1979 and a weekly rise of 16.08% [2] - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than solid industry fundamentals, indicating potential risks of price corrections as market sentiment normalizes [2] Group 2: Energy and Industrial Metals - The energy market shows mixed performance, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $58 per barrel, supported by U.S. actions against Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but limited by ample global supply [3] - UBS notes that the U.S. government prefers to manage inflation through low oil prices, establishing an "invisible floor" for oil prices around $50 [3] - Industrial metals maintain high prices due to optimistic market sentiment regarding Chinese economic support policies and strong demand for metals like copper and aluminum in green energy infrastructure [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - The agricultural market faces challenges from South American weather and geopolitical risks, with corn and soybean prices initially boosted by Chinese demand but later pressured by farmer sell-offs [4] - A significant warning is that soybean export volumes have decreased by nearly one-third year-on-year, which may impact planting decisions for 2026 [4] - In contrast, corn exports have surged by 30% year-on-year, becoming a highlight in the grain market, while the livestock sector remains robust for cattle but faces downward pressure in the pork market due to increased supply [4] Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - As the new year approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain low, amplifying the impact of any sudden news on prices [5] - The current commodities market is at a critical juncture, with precious metals experiencing strong momentum but facing valuation challenges, while energy and agricultural markets seek new pricing logic amid policy interventions and climate variability [5] - For 2026, a return to fundamentals may replace the current sentiment-driven trading, becoming the main theme in the market [5]

Core Insights - Gold spot prices are projected to gain approximately $50/oz week-over-week, closing around $4,340/oz after a strong start to the week [2][3] - The market is anticipating at least two more rate cuts next year, influenced by macroeconomic data [2] Economic Data Impact - Key employment data for October and November revealed a 4.6% unemployment rate, a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, and only 64,000 new jobs added in November, indicating a weak labor market [4][6] - Retail sales growth for October was reported at 0% month-over-month, with downward revisions to previous figures [6] Inflation and Market Sentiment - November's Core CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, better than the expected 3%, but market confidence in the data is low due to the October government shutdown [7] - The perceived reliability of inflation metrics is questioned, limiting their influence on rate-cut expectations [8] Market Dynamics - Despite weak U.S. economic data, gold prices have remained stable, suggesting a near-term ceiling for gold [8] - Ongoing demand from ETFs and central banks, along with geopolitical risks, continues to support gold prices at current levels [8]