Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows resilience but faces significant issues with strong supply and weak demand, necessitating structural measures to unleash consumer potential and expand effective investment to promote sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Countermeasures - The expansion of domestic demand policies this year has been extensive and impactful, yet problems of insufficient market demand, strong supply, and weak prices remain prominent [2]. - To stimulate consumer demand, it is suggested to implement counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies, optimize the support range and structure for commodity consumption, and focus on subsidies in essential areas such as education, healthcare, and elderly care to boost consumer confidence [2]. - Effective implementation of a resident income growth plan is crucial to enhance social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby improving safety expectations and consumer confidence [2]. - Strengthening supply-side policies is necessary by reducing entry restrictions, optimizing regulatory policies, and enhancing domestic standards and brand development to expand the supply of quality services [2]. Group 2: Expanding Effective Investment - Alongside releasing consumer potential, there is a need to focus on expanding effective investment for a positive interaction between consumption and investment [3]. - A new model for urban and rural construction and real estate development should be established, moving away from large-scale, rough urban construction towards investments that enhance urban environments and housing quality, addressing demands for urban renewal and rural infrastructure improvements [3]. - There is a call to significantly boost private and foreign investment by deepening reforms, expanding openness, and improving the business environment to stabilize and enhance corporate expectations and confidence [3].

在刺激居民消费需求潜力方面，张军扩建议，一是逆周期性消费刺激政策，应在总量不减、持续用力的 前提下，优化商品性消费的支持范围和结构，加大服务性消费支持，聚焦教育、医疗养老、生育等民生 领域补贴，提振消费意愿；二是应切实有效实施居民收入增长计划，提高低收入人群的社会保障和公共 服务水平，提升安全保障预期和消费信心；三是加大供给侧政策力度，通过减少准入限制，优化监管政 策，加大国内标准、品牌、环境建设力度等举措，扩大优质服务供给。 扩大有效投资 ● 本报记者 张舒琳 12月30日，在中国证券报主办的"改革与重构——2025公募基金高质量发展大会暨第22届基金业金牛奖 颁奖典礼"上，第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张 军扩围绕宏观经济形势及政策应对发表主题演讲。张军扩表示，我国经济韧性凸显但供强需弱问题突 出，需通过结构性对策释放消费潜力、扩大有效投资，推动经济持续回升。 突出结构性对策 张军扩表示，今年以来，扩内需政策涉及范围之广、政策力度之大为近年少有，也取得了积极成果。不 过，市场需求不足、供强需弱、价格疲弱的问题依然比较突出。消费需求不足既受短期波动影响，更有 中长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy shows strong resilience overall, but there are significant issues with supply exceeding demand, leading to challenges for business development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized expanding domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market [2] Group 2 - Zhang Junkuo highlighted the importance of addressing both short-term and long-term structural issues to effectively release consumer potential, noting that demand insufficiency is influenced by both short-term market fluctuations and deeper structural factors [3] - He emphasized the need for short-term stimulus policies to interrupt negative cycles while also addressing deeper issues to stabilize economic growth [4] Group 3 - Zhang pointed out that the structural reasons for low consumer spending include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential, primarily due to the relatively low share of household income in national income and inadequate social security [6] - He proposed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, structural measures should be prioritized to effectively release consumer demand, including counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies and increased support for service consumption [6] Group 4 - Zhang also stressed the need to implement a resident income increase plan effectively, with a focus on enhancing social security and public services for low-income groups to boost consumer confidence [7] - Additionally, he called for increased supply-side policy efforts, such as reducing entry restrictions and optimizing regulatory policies to expand the supply of quality services [7]