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结转填补(carry - forward imputation)
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11月CPI数据“跳水”,华尔街却齐声警告:别被骗了!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-12-19 00:30
Group 1 - The core inflation in the U.S. dropped to a four-year low in November, but economists question the "authenticity" of the report due to significant data gaps caused by a record-length government shutdown [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in November, the slowest growth since 2021, but the missing data from October led to assumptions that inflation did not occur that month [1][2] - Economists criticized the report's methodology, particularly the use of "carry-forward imputation" for housing prices, which assumed no price changes, leading to inconsistencies in the data [2][3] Group 2 - The largest discrepancies in the report were found in the housing category, which has been a major driver of inflation, with average rent increases of only 0.06% and owner-equivalent rent increases of 0.14% over two months [3] - Despite the anomalies, some economists believe inflation is cooling, although not to the extent suggested by the report, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the data [4]