·德意志银行：市场担忧政治干预美联储政策，激进降息成2026年主要风险 ·摩根士丹利：美国11月CPI回落或为技术性偏差，难作政策转向依据 ·瑞穗证券策略师指出，市场已充分消化日本央行19日的加息预期，但关键在于行长植田和男是否暗示 下次加息路径。若其表态偏鸽、未明确紧缩前景，日元将面临显著下行压力。策略师补充称，随着海外 市场进入年末假期，外汇市场或维持区间震荡，或延续日本央行政策决议后的既有趋势。 ·凯投宏观：英国家庭消费疲软拖累增长，2026年GDP增速或放缓至1.0% 【机构分析】 ·高盛指出，英国央行12月18日的降息标志着其政策重心正式从抗通胀转向稳增长，确认紧缩周期结 束，并开启一个更为持久的宽松阶段。该行预计英国央行将在2026年3月、6月和9月各降息25个基点， 全年累计下调75个基点。相较于此前预测的2月、4月、7月降息时点，此次调整反映出高盛认为货币政 策委员会（MPC）将采取更谨慎、渐进的节奏，以应对逐步缓解的通胀压力和日益明显的劳动力市场 疲态。 ·潘森宏观经济经济学家指出，美国11月CPI商品报价大量采自"黑色星期五"促销期，且折扣力度高于往 年，可能人为拉低通胀读数。加之数据收集 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation in the U.S. dropped to a four-year low in November, but economists question the "authenticity" of the report due to significant data gaps caused by a record-length government shutdown [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in November, the slowest growth since 2021, but the missing data from October led to assumptions that inflation did not occur that month [1][2] - Economists criticized the report's methodology, particularly the use of "carry-forward imputation" for housing prices, which assumed no price changes, leading to inconsistencies in the data [2][3] Group 2 - The largest discrepancies in the report were found in the housing category, which has been a major driver of inflation, with average rent increases of only 0.06% and owner-equivalent rent increases of 0.14% over two months [3] - Despite the anomalies, some economists believe inflation is cooling, although not to the extent suggested by the report, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the data [4]