Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates that investors view "the new Fed chair pushing for aggressive rate cuts leading to market turmoil" as a major risk for 2026, reflecting concerns over political interference in monetary policy [2] - Morgan Stanley economists note that the unexpected decline in US November CPI is largely due to technical assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the absence of October data, suggesting that some categories may have been defaulted to "zero inflation," complicating policy direction conclusions [2][3] - UBS economists emphasize that the key component "Owner's Equivalent Rent" (OER) in the US November CPI may be significantly underestimated due to BLS setting October price changes to zero, which could lead to a downward bias in overall readings [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs points out that the Bank of England's rate cut on December 18 marks a shift in focus from anti-inflation to growth stabilization, confirming the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of a more prolonged easing phase, with expectations of three 25 basis point cuts in 2026 [1] - Capital Economics highlights that weak consumer spending in the UK is expected to slow GDP growth from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with November retail sales showing a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1% [3]

Group 1 - The core inflation in the U.S. dropped to a four-year low in November, but economists question the "authenticity" of the report due to significant data gaps caused by a record-length government shutdown [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in November, the slowest growth since 2021, but the missing data from October led to assumptions that inflation did not occur that month [1][2] - Economists criticized the report's methodology, particularly the use of "carry-forward imputation" for housing prices, which assumed no price changes, leading to inconsistencies in the data [2][3] Group 2 - The largest discrepancies in the report were found in the housing category, which has been a major driver of inflation, with average rent increases of only 0.06% and owner-equivalent rent increases of 0.14% over two months [3] - Despite the anomalies, some economists believe inflation is cooling, although not to the extent suggested by the report, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the data [4]