李丹，华尔街见闻 在本月末美联储会议静默期前的最后一次经济和货币政策相关公开讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，美 国的劳动力市场持续恶化，尽管政府关门影响了对经济的判断，仍保留了本月降息的可能性。他还称， 联储可能会在未来几个月内停止缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动。 在事先准备的讲稿中，出席全美商业经济协会（NABE）今年年会的鲍威尔表示，自上月美联储决策会 议以来，将近一个月时间内，美国的就业和通胀前景并没有多大改变。他说，虽然一些重要的经济数据 因美国联邦政府关门而推迟发布，但 "根据我们掌握的数据，可以公平地说，自四周前我们9月的会议以来，就业和通胀前景似乎 没有太大变化。" 紧接着鲍威尔指出，政府关门前的数据表明，经济增长可能比预期略为稳健。失业率8月保持低位，工 资增长大幅放缓，可能部分源于移民减少和劳动力参与率下降导致劳动力增长放缓。 "在这个活力不足且略显疲软的劳动力市场中，就业的下行风险似乎有所增加。" 鲍威尔在讲稿中重申，因为就业下行风险增加，联储对就业和通胀目标所面临风险平衡的评估改变，因 此9月决定降息。为了应对双重目标的紧张关系，"不存在毫无风险的政策路径"。他提到，现有的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2][24]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that since the last Federal Reserve meeting, the employment and inflation outlooks have not changed significantly, with economic growth appearing slightly more robust than expected [1][24]. - The unemployment rate remained low in August, but wage growth has slowed considerably, partly due to a decrease in immigration and labor force participation [1][24][25]. - There are increasing risks to employment in a labor market that is described as lacking vitality and somewhat weak [1][24]. Monetary Policy Actions - Powell emphasized the risks associated with balancing the dual mandate of employment and inflation, stating that a rapid rate cut could leave inflation targets unmet, while a slow cut could harm the job market [2][24]. - The Federal Reserve may halt the reduction of its balance sheet in the coming months, as it approaches a level deemed sufficient for reserves [4][18]. - Powell acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity but assured that the Fed would act cautiously to avoid a repeat of the "taper tantrum" experienced in September 2019 [5][19]. Labor Market Insights - The hiring pace has slowed, and the number of job vacancies is decreasing, which may lead to a rise in the unemployment rate [2][24]. - Powell did not provide specific figures for the equilibrium point of employment growth necessary to maintain stable unemployment rates, but noted that the unemployment rate has significantly decreased [2][24]. Inflation and Price Pressures - Current data suggests that rising commodity prices are primarily due to tariffs rather than broader inflationary pressures [1][25]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was reported at 2.9% over the past 12 months, slightly higher than earlier in the year, driven by increases in core goods inflation [25]. Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which stood at $6.5 trillion as of October 8, consists mainly of $2.4 trillion in Federal Reserve notes and $3 trillion in reserves [11]. - The Fed plans to adjust its asset holdings, potentially increasing short-term assets, which some investors view as a form of implicit quantitative easing [7][20]. - Powell defended the effectiveness of the reserve system, stating that it is crucial for controlling interest rates and ensuring financial stability [18][21].