根据摩根大通公司的说法，在公司纳税日和季度末，融资市场活动低迷，加上美联储的长期回购工具的 使用很少，表明"准备金似乎仍然充足"。"季末融资压力得到控制，回购条件比最近一次企业纳税日更 为疲软，"由Teresa Ho领导的摩根大通团队在周四的一份报告中表示。关注准备金水平之际，市场参与 者正在评估美联储缩减资产负债表或量化紧缩计划的结束日期。他们指出："我们认为QT没有理由不能 持续到年底。" ...

Group 1 - The recent focus in the foreign exchange market is on the movement of the US dollar, with the dollar index showing slight fluctuations, currently at 98.38, down 0.08% from the opening price of 98.46 [1] - According to ThuLan Nguyen, a foreign exchange analyst at Deutsche Bank, the Federal Reserve's future plans regarding the size of its balance sheet are becoming a key factor influencing the direction of the US dollar [3] - Nguyen emphasizes that recent positive signals from the market indicate support for accelerating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction process, which had slowed since spring 2024 [3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to accelerate the balance sheet reduction, particularly by adjusting its asset holdings, it will impact liquidity in the financial system and market interest rates [3] - This adjustment may lead to a new characteristic in monetary policy, with interest rates likely to remain low, supporting economic growth [3] - Nguyen notes that the combination of "loose rates and tight liquidity" may weaken the expected stimulative effect of rate cuts, potentially providing support for the US dollar in the medium term [3] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the current short-term resistance for the dollar index is in the 98.85-98.90 range, with significant resistance at 99.10-99.15 [4] - Short-term support is observed in the 98.30-98.35 range, with important support at the 98.00-98.05 level [4] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a critical technical range, with market participants closely monitoring breakout signals to determine future direction [4]

【文/羽扇观金工作室 李琪】 随着流动性持续从金融体系中流出，美国银行业在美联储的储备余额已连续第7周下降，跌破3万亿美元 关口。 美联储数据显示，截至9月24日当周，美国银行储备减少约210亿美元，降至2.9997万亿美元，为今年1 月（2.89万亿美元）以来最低水平。 回购市场动荡期间的储备金水平彭博社 并且，随着逆回购工具（RRP）余额接近耗尽，商业银行存放于美联储的准备金也开始下降，而外国银 行持有的现金资产下降速度甚至快于美国本土银行。 与此同时，在美联储持续推行量化紧缩（QT）的背景下，流动性收紧正逐渐影响金融体系的日常运 作。为缓解潜在的市场波动，美联储已于今年早些时候通过减少每月到期债券的不续作规模来放慢缩表 节奏。 尽管美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示银行准备金水平依然充裕，但市场迹象显示，其规模正逼近最低安全水 平，这可能迫使美联储提前结束缩表计划。 此外，流动性收紧推动有效联邦基金利率小幅上升，本周升高1个基点至4.09%。尽管该利率仍处于4% 至4.25%的目标区间内，但其向区间上沿的移动预示融资成本存在上行压力，未来金融环境可能趋于紧 张。 分析人士指出，美联储若提前结束缩表，将使得美国融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Chief Economist Huw Pill advocates for a faster reduction of the central bank's large bond balance sheet accumulated under quantitative easing (QE), suggesting that the market is stronger than previously thought and that the central bank has robust tools to support it in case of market stress [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current "UK bond storm" is primarily due to the loss of the Bank of England as a major buyer, leading to increased volatility and weaker demand for long-dated gilt bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which saw yields rise to a new high of 5.7% in early September [2][5] - Pill expressed dissent against the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from £100 billion to £70 billion, arguing that market demand is stronger than other officials believe [2][5] Group 2: Quantitative Easing and Financial Impact - The Bank of England still holds nearly £600 billion in UK government bonds, despite ongoing QT efforts, which include actively selling bonds and not reinvesting the principal of maturing bonds [5][6] - Since the Bank of England raised the base rate above 2%, its asset portfolio has incurred losses of approximately £93 billion, erasing most of the £124 billion profit gained since 2009, and is projected to result in taxpayer losses exceeding £100 billion over the project's lifecycle [6][10] Group 3: Policy and Governance - Pill emphasized the need for well-designed government fiscal rules to address the large capital flows resulting from past QE decisions, indicating that the complexities arising from QE are not the central bank's responsibility [6][10] - The UK Treasury has lost 75% of the profits previously gained through QE, highlighting the significant financial implications of the current monetary policy environment [9]

欧洲市场今日开盘表现亮眼，但英国富时100和250指数却明显落后于欧洲大陆股市，因投资者在英国央行利率决议前表现更为谨慎。本周包括加拿大 央行、挪威央行和美联储在内的多家央行均已降息，但英国借款人似乎难以享受同样的待遇。预计英国央行将在2025年余下时间维持利率不变，因为 通胀水平仍远高于2%的目标。不过，随着英国本周将迎来一系列重要数据，失业救济申请人数上升与核心通胀回落的组合，或许能推动市场形成一种 观点：若趋势持续，英国央行未来可能不得不采取更宽松的政策。眼下会议更可能将重心放在量化紧缩（QT）上。由于英国央行不得不更依赖主动出 售国债以缩减资产负债表，市场普遍预计其将明显放缓QT步伐。对于市场而言，这种放缓或缓解部分国债收益率上行压力，但若被解读为政策立场转 鸽，则可能打压英镑。 澳大利亚就业数据意外疲软，报告显示就业人数变动为-5,400，远低于预期的+21,200。这是过去四个月里第三次大幅低于市场预期，尽管失业率仍相 对稳定，却引发市场联想到与美国的相似性。这一结果导致澳元今早在多数货币对中走低，市场对澳洲联储在11月降息的预期升至61%。不过，澳元 的疲软在一定程度上被新西兰元的下跌掩盖，因新 ...

英国央行仍持有近6000亿英镑的政府债务 市场普遍预计货币政策委员会将维持4%的基准利率不变，且鉴于通胀仍处于高位，可能会彻底打消2025年再降息的 希望。与之形成对比的是，美联储周四凌晨宣布自去年12月以来首次降息，并计划今年再降息两次。 英国央行将于北京时间周四19:00公布利率决议，预计届时将维持基准利率不变，与此同时，受国债市场波动加剧影 响，该央行料将放缓其量化紧缩（QT）计划。 政策指引 经济学家与投资者预计，英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）将把年度国债持仓减持规模从1000亿英镑（约合960亿 美元）降至700亿英镑，官员们还可能限制长期英国国债的抛售规模。 自英国央行8月会议释放鹰派信号后，投资者已下调对进一步降息的押注。 目前，市场认为年底前再降息的概率仅为三分之一。若11月暂停降息，这将打破英国央行自2024年8月以来"每季度 降息一次"的节奏。 经济学家预计，货币政策委员会将对进一步降息保持谨慎态度。 今年8月，该委员会重申将采取"渐进且审慎的策略"，并警告称，进一步降息"将取决于潜在通缩压力持续缓解的程 度"。委员会还指出，自去年8月以来，基准利率已累计下调五次（每次25个基点），货币 ...

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息，本周再度行动后，本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达125个基点。 本次会议的降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率约为96%，10月下次 会议继续降息的概率约为80%，12月进一步降息的概率接近74%。美国财长贝森特周二称，市场正在消化从现在到年底合计降息75个基点的预期。 在会后公布的会议声明中，美联储主要调整了就业方面的表述，特别提到就业下行的风险增加。更新的利率预期体现出，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次 数由6月公布的两次提高到三次，即在本周降息后，还会由两次25个基点的降息。 本次降息决议只有一名FOMC投票委员——特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰反对，至少目前看来，联储内部的降息分歧还没有出现两票反对的上次会议时大。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在联储会后发文称，对就 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices paused their upward momentum, with the S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6606.76 points, the Dow Jones down 0.27% at 45757.9 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.07% at 22333.96 points, as retail sales showed steady performance [1] - European indices also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 1.68%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.93%, and France's CAC40 down 1.00% [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.68%, closing at 96.639, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar [3] Commodity Insights - Gold prices reached a new high, with futures rising to $3,688.90 per ounce, supported by expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - Oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures up 1.93% to $64.52 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.53% to $68.47 per barrel [2] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August rose by 0.6%, exceeding expectations, partly due to tariffs raising product prices [5] - Industrial production in the U.S. showed minimal growth in August, with manufacturing output increasing by 0.2% [7] - The U.S. housing market is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, as indicated by the unchanged builder confidence index [8] Corporate Developments - Major U.S. tech companies announced plans to invest over $40 billion in AI infrastructure in the UK, with Microsoft committing $30 billion by 2028 and Google planning to invest $6.8 billion over the next two years [12] - PIMCO suggested that the Federal Reserve should halt the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities holdings to support the housing market [9] Analyst Ratings - Bernstein initiated coverage on Apple with an outperform rating and a target price of $290, while UBS raised its gold price targets for 2025 and 2026 [13]

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO suggests that the Federal Reserve should consider halting the reduction of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings to support the U.S. housing market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Since the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the Federal Reserve has been gradually reducing its MBS holdings through quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - The Fed has allowed the principal and interest payments from MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds [1] Group 2: Impact on Mortgage Market - PIMCO reports that the continuous reduction of MBS holdings over the past three years has led to an "abnormally wide" mortgage spread, which is the difference between Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - As of last Friday, this spread was approximately 230 basis points, nearing historical highs [1] - This situation has contributed to an increase in the average rate for the most common 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which currently stands at 6.35% [1] Group 3: Proposed Solutions - PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Sedna, and others argue that reinvesting the principal and interest payments from MBS could have a similar or even better effect on lowering mortgage rates compared to rate cuts [1]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：真灼财经） 本星期除了美联储议息会议外，英伦银行(BoE)也将公布货币政策。现时市场人士预计，英伦银行(BoE)将在周四(9月18日)维持关 键利率不变，但会缩减一项旨在削减其政府债券持有量的计划。随着国债收益率持续上升，该计划正受到市场更密切的关注。 英国央行(BoE)于上月将关键利率从4.25%下调至4%，延续了自2024年8月以来的渐进降息节奏。这一宽鬆周期始于2024年8月， 旨在应对2022年通胀激增后的经济放缓。央行现时採取每三个月降息25个基点的策略，并称之为"谨慎而渐进"。 若央行维持原有路径，本周四应保持利率在4.25%不变。然而有迹象显示，央行不仅可能在本次会议上暂缓降息，甚至在11月或 12月的会议上可能也不会调低利率。令市场意外的是，货币政策委员会的九名成员中有四名上月投票反对降息。 英国央行(BoE)行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)此前表示，英国面临著自 COVID-19 大流行以来，经济增长乏力和劳动力参与率下降 的"严重挑战"，并表示利率走向，目前仍存在显著不确定性。 与美联储类似，英国央行(BoE)正努力平衡就业市场降温与通胀再度上升之间的矛盾，后 ...