智通财经APP获悉，作为公开市场操作的一部分，美联储维持着隔夜逆回购工具(RRP)，这是一个非银 行实体存放现金以换取美联储设定的利率的地方。该机制允许美联储设定短期借贷利率的下限，而这一 利率由货币政策决定。 由于美国政府在大流行期间采取"直升机撒钱"政策，系统内资金过剩导致资金大量涌入RRP。当时货币 市场基金、政府机构(如机构支持的抵押贷款需求极旺)，以及国库券短缺的三重因素碰撞在一起，使得 RRP成为资金的主要去处。 就其本身而言，RRP确实完成了其预设功能——吸收流动性。在2022年底时，RRP使用规模达到了2.5 万亿美元的峰值。但值得注意的是，如今RRP使用规模相较于峰值已下跌超95%，至近期低点220亿美 元。 长期以来，美联储RRP的使用率被视为融资市场过剩流动性的衡量指标。如今其使用规模持续下降，原 因是美国财政部为填补不断扩大的赤字而发行更多短期债券，吸引资金从这一关键资金缓冲来源流出。 目前尚不清楚，美联储在没有这些准备金的情况下，是否仍然能像2008年前那样，依靠"微型QE和 QT"来调整短期利率。但需要指出的是，2008年引入的大规模QE与当下体系截然不同，这意味着或许 并不需要美 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are under pressure, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate and decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,750, the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,611. Trading volumes and positions in both domestic and international markets have changed. For example, the SHFE aluminum main - contract trading volume is 132,302, and the LME aluminum 3M trading volume is 17,313. The LME canceled warrant ratio is 3.03% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,211. Trading volumes and positions have also changed, with the trading volume at 280,531 and the position at 122,006 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,135. The trading volume is 1,954, and the position is 8,695 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The spot premium and discounts, premiums in different regions, processing fees, and price differences between refined and scrap aluminum have changed. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 3,951.96, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss is - 1,452.94 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,275, and the CIF price in Lianyungang is 400 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 257, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 19,700 [1]. Other Information - **External News**: The US has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products, and Switzerland will continue to negotiate with the US. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and inflation risks have intensified internal differences [3].

Core Viewpoint - The main driving factor for the Bank of England's interest rate cut decision is domestic factors, with a downward trend in the interest rate path over time [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - There is increased uncertainty regarding when to take action on interest rates, with no predictions made for quantitative tightening (QT) decisions after October [1] - The message released to the market indicates that the situation is "balanced," leading to a re-evaluation of the central bank's policy stance [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The consequences of rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) are emphasized as a significant concern [1] - The employment market is showing signs of weakening, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The steepening of the yield curve is noted as a global phenomenon, with the UK government bond yield curve being a consideration for QT decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the objective of Quantitative Tightening (QT) has not changed according to the Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Taylor [1] Group 2 - The statement indicates a commitment to the existing QT strategy, suggesting stability in monetary policy direction [1] - This could imply that the Bank of England is focused on managing inflation and economic stability through its current QT measures [1] - The lack of change in QT objectives may influence market expectations regarding interest rates and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Taylor, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is not a predetermined path [1] Group 1 - Taylor emphasized that the approach to QT will be flexible and responsive to economic conditions rather than following a set trajectory [1] - The committee is open to adjusting its strategy based on the evolving economic landscape [1] - There is an acknowledgment that the impact of QT on the economy is still uncertain and requires careful monitoring [1]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes the need for stable and sustainable growth while aiming to increase the potential growth rate [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England will study the steepening of the yield curve during quantitative tightening (QT) [1] - There are no issues with the volatility in the UK bond market [1] - The pace of actively selling bonds is a matter that requires real-time decision-making [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is set to conduct an annual review of its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, with a decision on whether to continue large-scale bond sales expected in September [1] - The current plan involves reducing government bonds by £100 billion (approximately $135 billion) annually, with the review focusing on the recent significant rise in long-term bond yields [1] - The complexity of this year's decision-making is heightened by a steepening yield curve, which is a phenomenon observed across major economies, not solely attributed to the Bank's QT [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that due to increased market volatility, the Bank of England may slow down its bond reduction pace after October [2] - The central bank's core objective is to gradually guide the market away from the high liquidity injected by previous Quantitative Easing policies, transitioning to funding support through repurchase operations [2] - The Bank is closely monitoring signs of tension in the pound money market, as the transition may increase market volatility risks [2]