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图说研报 | 中国电力何时见底?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 23:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting trends in electricity supply and demand between China and the United States, highlighting the differences in base load power generation growth and electricity pricing dynamics. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand Trends - The growth rate of base load power generation in China is expected to outpace that of the United States, leading to a significant divergence in supply dynamics during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6][18]. - After 2025, it is anticipated that the growth rate of electricity demand in China will remain consistently higher than that of base load power generation, indicating a potential supply gap [7][19]. - The article notes that both countries are experiencing a slowdown in the growth of base load power generation, which is a critical factor contributing to electricity shortages [19][28]. Group 2: Electricity Pricing Dynamics - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio of electricity stocks in the U.S. has widened significantly compared to China, reaching over 2 times [12]. - The article predicts that by 2026, industrial electricity prices in China will be significantly lower than those in the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [47][51]. - The rising fuel costs in the U.S. are expected to contribute to a 70% increase in electricity prices from 2024 to 2026, while China's electricity prices are projected to decline due to falling coal prices [45][65]. Group 3: Future Projections - The article forecasts that the growth rate of base load power generation in both countries will peak around 2025, after which a notable decline is expected [68]. - It is anticipated that the electricity supply gap in China will not begin to narrow until 2025, as the demand for electricity continues to rise [37][39]. - The article emphasizes that the electricity pricing structure in the U.S. is significantly influenced by the costs associated with fuel, while China's pricing is more affected by coal price fluctuations [41][63].