Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting trends in electricity supply and demand between China and the United States, highlighting the differences in base load power generation growth and electricity pricing dynamics. Group 1: Electricity Supply and Demand Trends - The growth rate of base load power generation in China is expected to outpace that of the United States, leading to a significant divergence in supply dynamics during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6][18]. - After 2025, it is anticipated that the growth rate of electricity demand in China will remain consistently higher than that of base load power generation, indicating a potential supply gap [7][19]. - The article notes that both countries are experiencing a slowdown in the growth of base load power generation, which is a critical factor contributing to electricity shortages [19][28]. Group 2: Electricity Pricing Dynamics - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio of electricity stocks in the U.S. has widened significantly compared to China, reaching over 2 times [12]. - The article predicts that by 2026, industrial electricity prices in China will be significantly lower than those in the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [47][51]. - The rising fuel costs in the U.S. are expected to contribute to a 70% increase in electricity prices from 2024 to 2026, while China's electricity prices are projected to decline due to falling coal prices [45][65]. Group 3: Future Projections - The article forecasts that the growth rate of base load power generation in both countries will peak around 2025, after which a notable decline is expected [68]. - It is anticipated that the electricity supply gap in China will not begin to narrow until 2025, as the demand for electricity continues to rise [37][39]. - The article emphasizes that the electricity pricing structure in the U.S. is significantly influenced by the costs associated with fuel, while China's pricing is more affected by coal price fluctuations [41][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report In 2026, the power market is expected to maintain a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the downward pressure on electricity prices remains. On the supply side, thermal power is still in the peak production period, and the new installed capacity of wind and solar power will still reach about 300GW but with negative year - on - year growth. On the demand side, the growth rate of全社会 electricity consumption is expected to moderately rebound to about 5.4%. Electric energy prices are expected to continue to decline, while non - electric energy prices may rise slightly. Regional electricity prices will show differentiation [2][70][71]. Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 Power Market Review - **Power Supply**: The growth rate of power generation has slowed down. From January to October, the power generation of above - scale enterprises increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The new installed capacity of power equipment was about 397.84 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 42.6%. New energy and thermal power were the main sources of installed capacity growth. The utilization hours of thermal power units decreased [6][14]. - **Power Demand**: The growth rate of electricity consumption slowed down. From January to October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was about 8.62 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The electricity consumption rhythm was significantly affected by temperature. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry was under pressure, while that in the tertiary industry and residents' living increased relatively fast [17][18]. - **Power Price**: Most provincial electricity prices continued to decline. From January to November, only 9 provinces such as Inner Mongolia West, Qinghai, and Ningxia saw year - on - year increases in the industrial and commercial agency power purchase prices, while the rest showed varying degrees of decline [23]. 2. Power Supply and Demand Outlook - **Power Supply**: In 2026, thermal power will still be in the peak production period, with an expected new installed capacity of about 103GW, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The new installed capacity of wind and solar power will total about 300GW, but the growth rate will decline. The new installed capacity of hydropower and nuclear power is expected to be about 23GW and 12GW respectively [26][30][33]. - **Power Demand**: The power consumption elasticity coefficient is expected to rise slightly to about 1.1. With a GDP growth expectation of 4.7%, the growth rate of全社会 electricity consumption in 2026 is expected to reach about 5.4%, showing a moderate rebound [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The marginal surplus of electric energy may continue. The utilization hours of thermal power units are expected to decrease, and the power generation of hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power is expected to increase [39]. 3. Key Regional Electricity Price Outlook - **Overall Situation**: Electric energy prices may remain weak, while non - electric energy costs are expected to rise. The cost of capacity electricity price is expected to increase significantly, and the impact of auxiliary service costs on the terminal electricity price is relatively limited [43][46]. - **Guangdong**: In 2026, the medium - and long - term electricity price will likely operate near the floor price, and the marginal change is limited. The spot price center is expected to move down slightly. The increase in non - electric energy costs is relatively limited, and the industrial and commercial electricity price is expected to decrease by 15 - 20 yuan/MWh [50][54]. - **Shandong**: The spot electricity price is expected to remain weakly volatile. The medium - and long - term electric energy price is expected to drop to 330 - 340 yuan/MWh. Due to the increase in non - electric energy costs, the overall electricity cost reduction is about 10 - 15 yuan/MWh [55][59]. - **Inner Mongolia West**: The electricity price is expected to continue to decline, mainly driven by the continuous development of new energy. The cancellation of the risk prevention mechanism may further drive down the electricity price. Non - electric energy costs have little impact on the terminal electricity price [62][63]. - **Shanxi**: The decline of electric energy prices is limited. The non - electric energy costs will increase significantly. The terminal industrial and commercial electricity price is expected to increase slightly by about 10 yuan/MWh [69]. 4. Summary In 2025, the power market was in a pattern of loose supply and demand, and electricity prices generally declined. In 2026, this pattern is expected to continue. Electric energy prices are expected to continue to decline, while non - electric energy prices may rise slightly. Regional electricity prices will show differentiation [70][71][72].