Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the issuance scale of new stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is expected to grow by 110% year-on-year in 2025, with an average first-day increase of 213% [1] - For A-class accounts with a scale of 2 to 5 billion, the estimated offline subscription yield for new stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in 2025 is approximately 2.49% to 3.83% [1] - The total issuance scale of new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange is projected to be 7.5 billion in 2025, with a continued decline in online winning rates and an average first-day increase of 284% [1] Group 2 - For accounts with a scale of 10 million, the estimated online subscription yield for new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2025 is approximately 2.64% [1] - The report anticipates that offline subscription yields will maintain a stable range, with expected yields for A-class accounts of 200 million around 3% to 4% in the context of improved regulations and stable structures [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts a significant increase in new stock issuance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 110% and an average first-day price increase of 213% [1] Group 1: New Stock Issuance - In 2025, the total new stock issuance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is expected to grow to a scale of approximately 110% year-on-year [1] - The first-day price increase for newly listed stocks on these exchanges is projected to have an average increase of 213% [1] Group 2: Offline Subscription Returns - For A-class accounts with a scale of 2 to 5 billion, the estimated offline subscription returns for 2025 on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are approximately 2.49% to 3.83% [1] - The offline subscription returns are expected to remain stable within a range of 3% to 4% for A-class accounts with a scale of 2 billion [1] Group 3: North Exchange Insights - The total new stock issuance on the North Exchange is projected to reach 7.5 billion in 2025, with a continuing downward trend in online winning rates [1] - The average first-day price increase for newly listed stocks on the North Exchange is expected to be 284% [1] - For accounts with a scale of 10 million, the estimated online subscription returns for 2025 on the North Exchange are approximately 2.64% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the issuance and underwriting rules by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges aims to enhance the participation of long-term funds in the IPO market, particularly by including wealth management companies as offline investors and allowing bank wealth management and insurance asset management products to be classified as A-class allocation objects, which is expected to positively impact the offline subscription market [2][8]. Group 1: Impact on Offline Subscription Market - The inclusion of insurance asset management products as A-class investors is expected to increase their offline subscription returns by approximately 10-20%, assuming other conditions remain unchanged [9]. - The number of A-class account investors is anticipated to see a slight increase, driven by an expected acceleration in new stock issuance and the continuation of first-day price surge effects [9]. - If the current concentration level of bids and the qualification situation remain unchanged, the winning rate may face downward pressure [9]. Group 2: Market Review and Performance - In March 2025, there were 11 IPOs in the A-share market, raising a total of 5.4 billion yuan, which represents a 22% increase in the number of IPOs month-on-month but a 16% decrease in financing scale [5][23]. - The average winning rates for A/B class accounts in the main board were 0.0133% and 0.0111%, respectively, while for the ChiNext board, they were 0.0291% and 0.0260% [8]. - New stocks in March 2025 saw significant first-day price increases, with the main board averaging a 299% increase and the ChiNext board averaging a 219% increase [5][40]. Group 3: Revenue Forecasts - Under neutral assumptions, the expected annual subscription returns for a 200 million yuan A/B class account in A-shares for 2025 are projected to be 4.54% and 3.69%, respectively [3][21]. - For a 500 million yuan A/B class account, the expected returns are 2.97% and 2.42%, while for a 1 billion yuan A/B class account, the returns are projected at 1.69% and 1.38% [3][21]. - The analysis indicates that the overall IPO issuance pace and fundraising scale are expected to steadily increase compared to the previous year, with the 2025 IPO rhythm anticipated to be between the levels of 2023 and 2024 [14].